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OU
Oklahoma
SoonersBalancedSoutheastern Conference10-3#13 (+17.72)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
90· A-Overall
Offense
67· CRating
17· DPer play
17· DConsistency
8· FBig plays
Defense
96· ARating
93· APer play
97· A+Consistency
Situational
97· A+Red-zone O
82· BRed-zone D
25· D3rd down O
88· B3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.037
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.168
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.099
Defensive EPA/play
-0.155
lower = better
Off Success Rate
42.4%
Def Success Rate
36.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
19.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
20.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.056
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.132
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.92
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+1.52
expected pts/game
Kicking
+1.28
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.26
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.05
own return game
Return Defense
+0.02
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#13
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#13
model & AP agree
Market (Vegas)
#22
model 9 higher
Recruiting Rank
#10
recruiting 3 spots higher
61 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Oklahoma ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense39th
Opp-adjusted defense97th
Offensive EPA/play17th
Defensive EPA/play94th
Offensive success rate15th
Explosiveness8th
Defensive havoc99th
Points per drive30th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Pittsburgh2019OA -0.088 / +0.099similar: takeaway rate, pass defense, rushing offense3862Michigan2017OA -0.033 / +0.192similar: defensive success rate, havoc rate, takeaway rate3533Pittsburgh2020OA -0.017 / +0.037similar: turnover rate, run defense, havoc rate3434Oklahoma State2021OA +0.044 / +0.195similar: havoc rate, defensive success rate, defensive EPA3415Utah2023OA -0.066 / +0.115similar: passing offense, defensive success rate, run defense341
2025 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Illinois State | 35-3 | W | -40.0 | L | 60.5 | U |
| 2 | vs Michigan | 24-13 | W | -4.5 | W | 44 | U |
| 3 | @ Temple | 42-3 | W | -24.0 | W | 51.5 | U |
| 4 | vs Auburn | 24-17 | W | -3.5 | W | 42.5 | U |
| 6 | vs Kent State | 44-0 | W | -43.5 | W | 47.5 | U |
| 7 | @ Texas | 6-23 | L | +3.5 | L | 30.5 | U |
| 8 | @ South Carolina | 26-7 | W | -4.5 | W | 43 | U |
| 9 | vs Ole Miss | 26-34 | L | -5.5 | L | 52.5 | O |
| 10 | @ Tennessee | 33-27 | W | +3.0 | W | 55 | O |
| 12 | @ Alabama | 23-21 | W | +2.5 | W | 56.5 | U |
| 13 | vs Missouri | 17-6 | W | -6.5 | W | 42.5 | U |
| 14 | vs LSU | 17-13 | W | -7.5 | L | 29.5 | O |
| 17 | vs Alabama | 24-34 | L | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
8-5
61.5%
O/U Record
4-9
30.8%
Straight Up
10-3
76.9%
Home ATS4-4
Away ATS4-1
Favorite ATS6-4
Underdog ATS2-1
Last 5 ATS
WWWLL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.096 | 16th | -0.163 | 95th |
| Red Zone | +0.316 | 98th | -0.181 | 83th |
| Third Down | -0.058 | 25th | -0.156 | 89th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.100 | 18th | -0.158 | 93th |
| First Half | -0.064 | 27th | -0.171 | 94th |
| Second Half | -0.129 | 8th | -0.156 | 93th |
| Early Downs | -0.053 | 30th | -0.186 | 98th |
| Passing Downs | -0.162 | 18th | -0.114 | 79th |
| Standard Downs | -0.060 | 24th | -0.196 | 99th |
| Goal to Go | +0.509 | 98th | -0.427 | 94th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 49.8%Rush 50.2%
Havoc/Game
17.8
Havoc Rate
27.0%
TO Margin
-0.2
Explosive/G
12.2
Yards/Game
354.3
Pts/Drive
1.92
3rd Down%
38.6%
3&Out%
20.5%
Team Statistics
2025 season totals across 13 games — Oklahoma vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Oklahoma | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 341 | 201 |
| Points / Game | 26.2 | 15.5 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 240 | 194 |
| Rushing | 85 | 56 |
| Passing | 139 | 109 |
| Penalty | 16 | 29 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 435 | 420 |
| Yards | 1,540 | 1,005 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.5 | 2.4 |
| Yards / Game | 118.5 | 77.3 |
| Touchdowns | 18 | 7 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 431 | 407 |
| Completions | 265 | 240 |
| Completion % | 61.5% | 59.0% |
| Yards | 3,066 | 2,538 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.1 | 6.2 |
| Touchdowns | 17 | 11 |
| Interceptions | 11 | 9 |
| Passer Rating | 129.15 | 115.85 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 866 | 827 |
| Yards | 4,606 | 3,543 |
| Yards / Play | 5.3 | 4.3 |
| Yards / Game | 354.3 | 272.5 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 25 | 26 |
| Yards | 312 | 246 |
| Average | 12.5 | 9.5 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 2 | 21 |
| Yards | 16 | 369 |
| Average | 8.0 | 17.6 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 63 | 81 |
| Yards | 2,840 | 3,437 |
| Average | 45.1 | 42.4 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 9 | 11 |
| Yards | 177 | 162 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 15 | 15 |
| Lost | 5 | 4 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 88 | 58 |
| Yards | 795 | 469 |
| Yards / Game | 61.2 | 36.1 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 29:44 | 30:16 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 184 | 188 |
| Conversions | 71 | 53 |
| Conversion % | 38.6% | 28.2% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 14 | 24 |
| Conversions | 8 | 11 |
| Conversion % | 57.1% | 45.8% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 35 | 31 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 34 | 25 |
| Score % | 97.1% | 80.6% |
| Touchdowns | 25 | 13 |
| TD % | 71.4% | 41.9% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 28 | 27 |
| Made | 24 | 20 |
| Pct | 85.7% | 74.1% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 35 | 19 |
| Made | 35 | 19 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 3 | 1 |
| Made | 1 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.