Fourth Down Data
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CMU

Central Michigan

ChippewasRun-Heavy
Mid-American Conference7-6#96 (-7.07)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

29· DOverall
Offense
26· DRating
30· DPer play
28· DConsistency
32· DBig plays
Defense
42· CRating
78· BPer play
57· CConsistency
Situational
40· CRed-zone O
86· BRed-zone D
31· D3rd down O
16· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.078
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.006
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.059
Defensive EPA/play
-0.093
lower = better
Off Success Rate
42.9%
Def Success Rate
45.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.034
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.120
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.02

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.67
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.13
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.47
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.04
own return game
Return Defense
-0.03
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#96
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#91
market 5 higher
Recruiting Rank
#79
recruiting 17 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Central Michigan ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
21th
Opp-adjusted defense
56th
Offensive EPA/play
30th
Defensive EPA/play
79th
Offensive success rate
19th
Explosiveness
33th
Defensive havoc
72th
Points per drive
36th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Eastern Michigan2018OA -0.073 / +0.100similar: TD drive rate, takeaway rate, rushing offense3482Middle Tennessee2018OA +0.025 / +0.049similar: defensive EPA, pass defense, havoc rate3433Arizona State2019OA -0.037 / +0.042similar: defensive success rate, havoc rate, takeaway rate3414South Carolina2017OA +0.025 / +0.081similar: turnover rate, TD drive rate, defensive success rate3405Troy2018OA -0.010 / +0.064similar: turnover rate, offensive success rate, takeaway rate334

2025 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ San José State16-14W----
2@ Pittsburgh17-45L+22.0L49.5O
3@ Michigan3-63L+27.5L42.5O
4vs Wagner49-10W-28.5W45.5O
5vs Eastern Michigan24-13W-3.5W54.5U
6@ Akron22-28L+11.5W53.5U
8@ Bowling Green27-6W+3.5W43.5U
9vs Massachusetts38-13W-30.5L55.25U
10@ Western Michigan21-24L-2.0L42.5O
12vs Buffalo38-19W-7.5W50.5U
13@ Kent State28-16W----
14vs Toledo3-21L+11.0L45.5U
18@ Northwestern7-34L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-6
53.8%
O/U Record
5-8
38.5%
Straight Up
7-6
53.8%
Home ATS3-2
Away ATS4-4
Favorite ATS4-2
Underdog ATS3-4
Last 5 ATS
LWWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off50thRush Off7thRed Zone Off41th3rd Down Off31thPass Def87thRush Def62thRed Zone Def87th3rd Down Def16th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.09018th-0.07974th
Red Zone-0.05341th-0.20687th
Third Down-0.02331th+0.21116th
No Garbage Time-0.04736th-0.08576th
First Half-0.01841th-0.12787th
Second Half-0.1665th-0.02756th
Early Downs-0.1259th-0.05264th
Passing Downs-0.02050th-0.15987th
Standard Downs-0.1267th-0.03962th
Goal to Go-0.13728th-0.19676th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 31.9%Rush 68.1%
Havoc/Game
13.4
Havoc Rate
19.8%
TO Margin
+0.4
Explosive/G
11.5
Yards/Game
330.5
Pts/Drive
2.02
3rd Down%
34.6%
3&Out%
24.8%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 13 games — Central Michigan vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatCentral MichiganOpponents
Scoring
Points293306
Points / Game22.523.5
First Downs
Total220254
Rushing120105
Passing82121
Penalty1828
Rushing
Attempts545445
Yards2,1251,894
Yards / Carry3.94.3
Yards / Game163.5145.7
Touchdowns1718
Passing
Attempts255410
Completions176238
Completion %69.0%58.0%
Yards2,1722,722
Yards / Attempt8.56.6
Touchdowns1618
Interceptions713
Passer Rating155.78121.96
Total Offense
Plays800855
Yards4,2974,616
Yards / Play5.45.4
Yards / Game330.5355.1
Punt Returns
Returns811
Yards69123
Average8.611.2
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns1733
Yards336673
Average19.820.4
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5746
Yards2,3422,061
Average41.144.8
Interception Returns
Returns137
Yards15045
Touchdowns20
Fumbles
Fumbles1815
Lost98
Penalties
Penalties7879
Yards633702
Yards / Game48.754.0
Time of Possession
Per Game32:0327:51
Third Downs
Attempts162177
Conversions5673
Conversion %34.6%41.2%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2628
Conversions1510
Conversion %57.7%35.7%
Red Zone
Trips4344
Scores (TD + FG)3432
Score %79.1%72.7%
Touchdowns2324
TD %53.5%54.5%
Field Goals
Attempts1719
Made1412
Pct82.4%63.2%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3537
Made3536
Pct100.0%97.3%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts12
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →