Fourth Down Data
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UTSA

UTSA

RoadrunnersRun-Heavy
American Conference6-5#95 (-6.29)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

29· DOverall
Offense
10· FRating
51· CPer play
46· CConsistency
42· CBig plays
Defense
59· CRating
81· BPer play
74· BConsistency
Situational
1· FRed-zone O
55· CRed-zone D
66· C3rd down O
59· C3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.040
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.039
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.015
Defensive EPA/play
-0.134
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.8%
Def Success Rate
41.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.119
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.169
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.93

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.23
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.51
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.22
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.13
own return game
Return Defense
+0.08
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#95
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 20 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where UTSA ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
32th
Opp-adjusted defense
62th
Offensive EPA/play
51th
Defensive EPA/play
82th
Offensive success rate
41th
Explosiveness
42th
Defensive havoc
86th
Points per drive
35th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Illinois2022OA -0.001 / +0.183similar: takeaway rate, offensive success rate, turnover rate3362Ohio2023OA -0.033 / +0.109similar: offensive EPA, takeaway rate, passing offense3353James Madison2024OA -0.011 / +0.047similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, rushing offense3354Boise State2021OA +0.014 / +0.065similar: defensive EPA, pass defense, offensive EPA3315Louisiana Tech2018OA -0.004 / +0.003similar: offensive success rate, havoc rate, pass defense329

2017 Schedule & Results

11 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
2@ Baylor17-10W+12.5W56.5U
3vs Southern51-17W-35.0L--
4@ Texas State44-14W-13.5W45O
6vs Southern Miss29-31L-10.5L50O
7@ North Texas26-29L-2.5L59U
8vs Rice20-7W-19.5L51.5U
9@ UTEP31-14W-16.0W47U
10@ Florida International7-14L-6.5L52U
11vs UAB19-24L-7.0L50U
12vs Marshall9-7W-3.0L45U
13@ Louisiana Tech6-20L--52.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
3-7
30.0%
O/U Record
2-8
20.0%
Straight Up
6-5
54.5%
Home ATS0-5
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS2-7
Underdog ATS1-0
Last 5 ATS
WLLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off43thRush Off53thRed Zone Off2th3rd Down Off67thPass Def88thRush Def80thRed Zone Def56th3rd Down Def59th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.03742th-0.14986th
Red Zone-0.4282th-0.03856th
Third Down+0.09067th-0.06859th
No Garbage Time-0.00755th-0.13280th
First Half+0.06475th-0.09968th
Second Half-0.14117th-0.20093th
Early Downs-0.06338th-0.12484th
Passing Downs-0.04443th-0.18888th
Standard Downs-0.03353th-0.12280th
Goal to Go-0.6302th+0.03541th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 41.0%Rush 59.0%
Havoc/Game
13.4
Havoc Rate
22.2%
TO Margin
+0.4
Explosive/G
14.5
Yards/Game
387.4
Pts/Drive
1.93
3rd Down%
41.6%
3&Out%
14.2%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 11 games — UTSA vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatUTSAOpponents
Scoring
Points259187
Points / Game23.517.0
First Downs
Total232166
Rushing9876
Passing11475
Penalty2015
Rushing
Attempts445375
Yards2,0301,405
Yards / Carry4.63.7
Yards / Game184.5127.7
Touchdowns1110
Passing
Attempts309261
Completions191128
Completion %61.8%49.0%
Yards2,2311,761
Yards / Attempt7.26.7
Touchdowns1513
Interceptions713
Passer Rating133.95112.19
Total Offense
Plays754636
Yards4,2613,166
Yards / Play5.75.0
Yards / Game387.4287.8
Punt Returns
Returns198
Yards8123
Average4.32.9
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2136
Yards460706
Average21.919.6
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts4759
Yards1,9532,379
Average41.640.3
Interception Returns
Returns137
Yards95135
Touchdowns11
Fumbles
Fumbles1518
Lost119
Penalties
Penalties7957
Yards641595
Yards / Game58.354.1
Time of Possession
Per Game33:1326:47
Third Downs
Attempts154132
Conversions6446
Conversion %41.6%34.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1415
Conversions86
Conversion %57.1%40.0%
Red Zone
Trips3425
Scores (TD + FG)2818
Score %82.4%72.0%
Touchdowns1414
TD %41.2%56.0%
Field Goals
Attempts248
Made207
Pct83.3%87.5%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2624
Made2522
Pct96.2%91.7%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts30
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →