Fourth Down Data
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VT

Virginia Tech

HokiesRun-Heavy
Atlantic Coast Conference5-6#51 (+1.67)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

60· COverall
Offense
75· BRating
84· BPer play
80· BConsistency
84· BBig plays
Defense
44· CRating
36· DPer play
39· DConsistency
Situational
43· CRed-zone O
10· FRed-zone D
25· D3rd down O
60· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.040
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.010
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.121
Defensive EPA/play
+0.061
lower = better
Off Success Rate
50.2%
Def Success Rate
49.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
26.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
28.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.060
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.260
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.60

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.03
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.69
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.43
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.39
own return game
Return Defense
+0.16
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#51
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#43
market 8 higher
Recruiting Rank
#19
recruiting 32 spots higher
13 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Virginia Tech ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
89th
Opp-adjusted defense
41th
Offensive EPA/play
85th
Defensive EPA/play
36th
Offensive success rate
82th
Explosiveness
85th
Defensive havoc
70th
Points per drive
77th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Arizona State2018OA +0.072 / -0.049similar: rushing offense, defensive EPA, pass defense3872Tulane2025OA -0.011 / +0.016similar: havoc rate, defensive EPA, defensive success rate3383SMU2017OA +0.140 / -0.078similar: run defense, offensive EPA, offensive success rate3334Oklahoma State2019OA +0.084 / +0.036similar: rushing offense, TD drive rate, pass defense3335Oklahoma2021OA +0.178 / +0.009similar: defensive EPA, havoc rate, defensive success rate332

2020 Schedule & Results

11 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
4vs NC State45-24W-6.5W56.5O
5@ Duke38-31W-12.0L54O
6@ North Carolina45-56L+4.0L59O
7vs Boston College40-14W-12.0W62U
8@ Wake Forest16-23L-8.5L68U
9@ Louisville42-35W-3.5W67.5O
10vs Liberty35-38L-14.5L67.5O
11vs Miami24-25L-2.0L66.5U
12@ Pittsburgh14-47L-3.0L54O
14vs Clemson10-45L+22.0L66.75U
15vs Virginia33-15W-2.5W64U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-7
36.4%
O/U Record
6-5
54.5%
Straight Up
5-6
45.5%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS1-4
Favorite ATS4-5
Underdog ATS0-2
Last 5 ATS
LLLLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off54thRush Off90thRed Zone Off44th3rd Down Off25thPass Def12thRush Def48thRed Zone Def10th3rd Down Def61th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.11786th+0.08823th
Red Zone-0.04344th+0.20010th
Third Down-0.07325th+0.01561th
No Garbage Time+0.13888th+0.06430th
First Half+0.16084th+0.01148th
Second Half+0.07569th+0.16610th
Early Downs+0.17697th+0.00455th
Passing Downs+0.05054th+0.21312th
Standard Downs+0.14590th+0.02648th
Goal to Go-0.17423th+0.18227th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 34.9%Rush 65.1%
Havoc/Game
15.0
Havoc Rate
20.2%
TO Margin
+0.3
Explosive/G
16.8
Yards/Game
440.7
Pts/Drive
2.60
3rd Down%
38.1%
3&Out%
15.6%

Team Statistics

2020 season totals across 11 games — Virginia Tech vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatVirginia TechOpponents
Scoring
Points342353
Points / Game31.132.1
First Downs
Total246256
Rushing134105
Passing93139
Penalty1912
Rushing
Attempts473406
Yards2,6411,996
Yards / Carry5.64.9
Yards / Game240.1181.5
Touchdowns2724
Passing
Attempts254389
Completions158240
Completion %62.2%61.7%
Yards2,2072,926
Yards / Attempt8.77.5
Touchdowns1319
Interceptions612
Passer Rating147.36134.83
Total Offense
Plays727795
Yards4,8484,922
Yards / Play6.76.2
Yards / Game440.7447.5
Punt Returns
Returns177
Yards6628
Average3.94.0
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2321
Yards534382
Average23.218.2
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts4248
Yards1,7512,124
Average41.744.3
Interception Returns
Returns126
Yards15620
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles1613
Lost85
Penalties
Penalties5882
Yards517723
Yards / Game47.065.7
Time of Possession
Per Game30:3229:28
Third Downs
Attempts134153
Conversions5162
Conversion %38.1%40.5%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1326
Conversions719
Conversion %53.8%73.1%
Red Zone
Trips4245
Scores (TD + FG)3538
Score %83.3%84.4%
Touchdowns2632
TD %61.9%71.1%
Field Goals
Attempts2614
Made2013
Pct76.9%92.9%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3442
Made3442
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts63
Made41
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →