Fourth Down Data
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TULN

Tulane

Green WaveRun-Heavy
American Conference5-7#93 (-6.02)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

31· DOverall
Offense
16· DRating
56· CPer play
51· CConsistency
57· CBig plays
Defense
51· CRating
25· DPer play
33· DConsistency
Situational
54· CRed-zone O
48· CRed-zone D
65· C3rd down O
19· D3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.095
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.015
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.004
Defensive EPA/play
+0.065
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.4%
Def Success Rate
47.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.069
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.058
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.23

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.56
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.37
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.29
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.02
own return game
Return Defense
+0.11
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#93
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 18 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Tulane ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
14th
Opp-adjusted defense
46th
Offensive EPA/play
56th
Defensive EPA/play
25th
Offensive success rate
66th
Explosiveness
58th
Defensive havoc
33th
Points per drive
59th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Florida Atlantic2022OA -0.010 / +0.001similar: havoc rate, passing offense, TD drive rate3962South Alabama2025OA +0.027 / -0.099similar: TD drive rate, defensive EPA, defensive success rate3663NC State2025OA +0.056 / -0.039similar: offensive success rate, defensive success rate, passing offense3524Texas2021OA -0.054 / -0.022similar: offensive EPA, defensive success rate, run defense3455Georgia Southern2025OA +0.032 / -0.156similar: TD drive rate, passing offense, offensive success rate342

2017 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Grambling State43-14W-21.0W--
2@ Navy21-23L+8.0W49.5U
3@ Oklahoma14-56L+33.0L52O
4vs Army21-17W-3.0W45U
6vs Tulsa62-28W-6.0W54O
7@ Florida International10-23L-13.0L51.5U
8vs South Florida28-34L+10.0W54O
9@ Memphis26-56L+10.5L62O
10vs Cincinnati16-17L-5.5L52U
11@ East Carolina31-24W-7.0P64U
12vs Houston20-17W+9.5W48U
13@ SMU38-41L+7.0W66O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-4-1
63.6%
O/U Record
5-6
45.5%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS5-1
Away ATS2-3
Favorite ATS3-2
Underdog ATS4-2
Last 5 ATS
LLPWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off62thRush Off68thRed Zone Off55th3rd Down Off65thPass Def7thRush Def20thRed Zone Def49th3rd Down Def20th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.02968th+0.1097th
Red Zone+0.02255th+0.01649th
Third Down+0.08965th+0.15220th
No Garbage Time+0.02564th+0.05227th
First Half+0.10486th+0.10420th
Second Half-0.05036th+0.1147th
Early Downs+0.01669th+0.1237th
Passing Downs+0.03062th+0.2127th
Standard Downs+0.02868th+0.05420th
Goal to Go-0.16027th+0.13028th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 29.5%Rush 70.5%
Havoc/Game
11.3
Havoc Rate
16.7%
TO Margin
+0.7
Explosive/G
13.4
Yards/Game
391.5
Pts/Drive
2.23
3rd Down%
39.9%
3&Out%
21.5%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 12 games — Tulane vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatTulaneOpponents
Scoring
Points330350
Points / Game27.529.2
First Downs
Total248242
Rushing152120
Passing78109
Penalty1813
Rushing
Attempts575464
Yards2,7782,525
Yards / Carry4.85.4
Yards / Game231.5210.4
Touchdowns3126
Passing
Attempts241319
Completions136181
Completion %56.4%56.7%
Yards1,9202,708
Yards / Attempt8.08.5
Touchdowns1219
Interceptions613
Passer Rating134.80139.55
Total Offense
Plays816783
Yards4,6985,233
Yards / Play5.86.7
Yards / Game391.5436.1
Punt Returns
Returns76
Yards2338
Average3.36.3
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2834
Yards580587
Average20.717.3
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5842
Yards2,2351,714
Average38.540.8
Interception Returns
Returns136
Yards63137
Touchdowns01
Fumbles
Fumbles1612
Lost56
Penalties
Penalties7074
Yards579675
Yards / Game48.356.3
Time of Possession
Per Game32:3527:25
Third Downs
Attempts163151
Conversions6567
Conversion %39.9%44.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2523
Conversions1611
Conversion %64.0%47.8%
Red Zone
Trips3639
Scores (TD + FG)3229
Score %88.9%74.4%
Touchdowns2325
TD %63.9%64.1%
Field Goals
Attempts1011
Made97
Pct90.0%63.6%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4247
Made3745
Pct88.1%95.7%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts20
Made10
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →