Fourth Down Data
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M-OH

Miami (OH)

RedHawksRun-Heavy
Mid-American Conference11-3#13 (+7.39)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

90· A-Overall
Offense
43· CRating
26· DPer play
20· DConsistency
29· DBig plays
Defense
93· ARating
91· A-Per play
67· CConsistency
Situational
44· CRed-zone O
69· CRed-zone D
35· D3rd down O
92· A-3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.108
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.066
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.050
Defensive EPA/play
-0.117
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.0%
Def Success Rate
44.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
20.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.067
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.161
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.13

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+2.54
expected pts/game
Kicking
+1.85
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.57
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.01
own return game
Return Defense
+0.11
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#13
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
model 13 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#40
model 27 higher
Recruiting Rank
#76
model 63 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Miami (OH) ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
11th
Opp-adjusted defense
82th
Offensive EPA/play
27th
Defensive EPA/play
92th
Offensive success rate
25th
Explosiveness
30th
Defensive havoc
63th
Points per drive
47th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Iowa2019OA -0.062 / +0.147similar: havoc rate, run defense, defensive EPA4142Wyoming2020OA -0.019 / +0.052similar: offensive EPA, run defense, havoc rate3783Utah2023OA -0.066 / +0.115similar: offensive EPA, run defense, offensive success rate3724Utah2018OA +0.005 / +0.129similar: pass defense, defensive EPA, TD drive rate3485Missouri2019OA -0.070 / +0.066similar: TD drive rate, turnover rate, offensive EPA345

2023 Schedule & Results

14 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Miami3-38L----
2@ Massachusetts41-28W-7.0W44O
3@ Cincinnati31-24W+14.0W45.5O
4vs Delaware State62-20W-40.5W49.5O
5@ Kent State23-3W-14.5W49.75U
6vs Bowling Green27-0W-10.0W45U
7@ Western Michigan34-21W-8.5W48.5O
8vs Toledo17-21L+2.0L48.5U
9@ Ohio30-16W+7.0W39O
11vs Akron19-0W-8.5W39.5U
12vs Buffalo23-10W----
13@ Ball State17-15W-6.5L35.5U
14@ Toledo23-14W+7.5W44U
16@ App State9-13L+6.5W41.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
11-3
78.6%
O/U Record
5-9
35.7%
Straight Up
11-3
78.6%
Home ATS4-1
Away ATS7-2
Favorite ATS7-1
Underdog ATS4-2
Last 5 ATS
WWLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off22thRush Off43thRed Zone Off45th3rd Down Off36thPass Def91thRush Def85thRed Zone Def70th3rd Down Def93th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.04227th-0.10092th
Red Zone-0.02545th-0.10870th
Third Down+0.13436th-0.05993th
No Garbage Time-0.05027th-0.12893th
First Half-0.03034th-0.08784th
Second Half-0.05330th-0.11387th
Early Downs-0.05142th-0.09379th
Passing Downs-0.06122th-0.09191th
Standard Downs-0.03143th-0.10485th
Goal to Go+0.13475th-0.11267th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 36.8%Rush 63.2%
Havoc/Game
13.4
Havoc Rate
19.6%
TO Margin
0.0
Explosive/G
11.8
Yards/Game
323.5
Pts/Drive
2.13
3rd Down%
36.1%
3&Out%
22.8%

Team Statistics

2023 season totals across 14 games — Miami (OH) vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatMiami (OH)Opponents
Scoring
Points359223
Points / Game25.615.9
First Downs
Total215255
Rushing97108
Passing95123
Penalty2324
Rushing
Attempts503509
Yards2,2131,851
Yards / Carry4.43.6
Yards / Game158.1132.2
Touchdowns2312
Passing
Attempts293424
Completions165249
Completion %56.3%58.7%
Yards2,3162,774
Yards / Attempt7.96.5
Touchdowns1612
Interceptions711
Passer Rating135.95117.83
Total Offense
Plays796933
Yards4,5294,625
Yards / Play5.75.0
Yards / Game323.5330.4
Punt Returns
Returns2420
Yards29926
Average12.51.3
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2717
Yards492317
Average18.218.6
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5874
Yards2,6092,936
Average45.039.7
Interception Returns
Returns117
Yards13084
Touchdowns01
Fumbles
Fumbles1817
Lost106
Penalties
Penalties6694
Yards547834
Yards / Game39.159.6
Time of Possession
Per Game29:4629:32
Third Downs
Attempts166192
Conversions6057
Conversion %36.1%29.7%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1332
Conversions414
Conversion %30.8%43.8%
Red Zone
Trips5142
Scores (TD + FG)4731
Score %92.2%73.8%
Touchdowns2619
TD %51.0%45.2%
Field Goals
Attempts2823
Made2716
Pct96.4%69.6%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4021
Made3817
Pct95.0%81.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts14
Made04
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →