Fourth Down Data
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Notre Dame

Fighting IrishBalanced
FBS Independents10-3#5 (+11.89)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

96· AOverall
Offense
93· ARating
87· BPer play
94· AConsistency
67· CBig plays
Defense
95· ARating
96· APer play
90· A-Consistency
Situational
94· ARed-zone O
83· BRed-zone D
46· C3rd down O
87· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.085
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.178
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.127
Defensive EPA/play
-0.180
lower = better
Off Success Rate
51.6%
Def Success Rate
41.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.306
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.145
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.98

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.34
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.29
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.93
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.13
own return game
Return Defense
-0.01
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#5
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#14
model 9 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#6
model 1 higher
Recruiting Rank
#6
model 1 spots higher
61 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Notre Dame ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
87th
Opp-adjusted defense
97th
Offensive EPA/play
87th
Defensive EPA/play
97th
Offensive success rate
96th
Explosiveness
68th
Defensive havoc
90th
Points per drive
93th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Washington2017OA +0.094 / +0.146similar: passing offense, TD drive rate, offensive success rate4282Georgia2022OA +0.185 / +0.203similar: rushing offense, offensive success rate, defensive EPA4273Ohio State2024OA +0.088 / +0.071similar: defensive EPA, offensive success rate, defensive success rate4154Indiana2025OA +0.139 / +0.239similar: offensive success rate, defensive EPA, offensive EPA4045Clemson2019OA +0.120 / +0.254similar: pass defense, offensive success rate, run defense401

2023 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
0vs Navy42-3W-20.5W49U
1vs Tennessee State56-3W-48.5W54.5O
2@ NC State45-24W-8.0W50O
3vs Central Michigan41-17W-34.5L51.5O
4vs Ohio State14-17L+3.0P55.5U
5@ Duke21-14W-5.5W52.5U
6@ Louisville20-33L-6.0L54U
7vs USC48-20W-2.5W63O
9vs Pittsburgh58-7W-20.5W44.5O
10@ Clemson23-31L-3.0L45O
12vs Wake Forest45-7W-24.5W46.5O
13@ Stanford56-23W-26.0W51.5O
18vs Oregon State40-8W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
9-3-1
75.0%
O/U Record
9-4
69.2%
Straight Up
10-3
76.9%
Home ATS6-1
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS9-3
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
WLWWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off77thRush Off92thRed Zone Off95th3rd Down Off47thPass Def96thRush Def95thRed Zone Def84th3rd Down Def87th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.12892th-0.16896th
Red Zone+0.28095th-0.16684th
Third Down+0.18047th-0.00887th
No Garbage Time+0.12788th-0.17096th
First Half+0.15388th-0.14894th
Second Half+0.10083th-0.18897th
Early Downs+0.10095th-0.16593th
Passing Downs+0.15977th-0.17496th
Standard Downs+0.11592th-0.16495th
Goal to Go+0.07762th-0.20576th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 43.4%Rush 56.6%
Havoc/Game
14.5
Havoc Rate
22.8%
TO Margin
+0.5
Explosive/G
12.9
Yards/Game
432.2
Pts/Drive
2.98
3rd Down%
44.8%
3&Out%
17.2%

Team Statistics

2023 season totals across 13 games — Notre Dame vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatNotre DameOpponents
Scoring
Points509207
Points / Game39.215.9
First Downs
Total273207
Rushing12081
Passing14199
Penalty1227
Rushing
Attempts457437
Yards2,4141,547
Yards / Carry5.33.5
Yards / Game185.7119.0
Touchdowns2814
Passing
Attempts351372
Completions227195
Completion %64.7%52.4%
Yards3,2052,045
Yards / Attempt9.15.5
Touchdowns318
Interceptions916
Passer Rating165.3997.09
Total Offense
Plays808809
Yards5,6193,592
Yards / Play7.04.4
Yards / Game432.2276.3
Punt Returns
Returns1523
Yards168233
Average11.210.1
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns2120
Yards552424
Average26.321.2
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts3963
Yards1,7562,703
Average45.042.9
Interception Returns
Returns169
Yards252112
Touchdowns21
Fumbles
Fumbles1324
Lost88
Penalties
Penalties6954
Yards623452
Yards / Game47.934.8
Time of Possession
Per Game30:3629:24
Third Downs
Attempts145182
Conversions6563
Conversion %44.8%34.6%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1724
Conversions1010
Conversion %58.8%41.7%
Red Zone
Trips5434
Scores (TD + FG)4724
Score %87.0%70.6%
Touchdowns3914
TD %72.2%41.2%
Field Goals
Attempts2226
Made1515
Pct68.2%57.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts6522
Made6422
Pct98.5%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts11
Made11
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →