Fourth Down Data
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CLEM

Clemson

TigersBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference12-2#3 (+28.95)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

98· A+Overall
Offense
92· A-Rating
60· CPer play
83· BConsistency
13· FBig plays
Defense
99· A+Rating
98· A+Per play
95· AConsistency
Situational
88· BRed-zone O
86· BRed-zone D
56· C3rd down O
96· A3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.135
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.278
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.009
Defensive EPA/play
-0.273
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.7%
Def Success Rate
39.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
20.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
17.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.283
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.175
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.34

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.12
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.17
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.10
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.02
own return game
Return Defense
+0.06
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#3
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#4
model 1 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#13
model 10 spots higher
42 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Clemson ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
90th
Opp-adjusted defense
100th
Offensive EPA/play
60th
Defensive EPA/play
98th
Offensive success rate
84th
Explosiveness
13th
Defensive havoc
97th
Points per drive
66th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Alabama2017OA +0.125 / +0.182similar: havoc rate, defensive success rate, passing offense3932Penn State2023OA +0.103 / +0.197similar: offensive success rate, havoc rate, defensive EPA3653App State2018OA +0.015 / +0.175similar: defensive success rate, pass defense, rushing offense3594Miami2025OA +0.143 / +0.197similar: havoc rate, defensive success rate, defensive EPA3535Iowa State2020OA +0.039 / +0.038similar: rushing offense, offensive success rate, takeaway rate352

2017 Schedule & Results

14 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Kent State56-3W+3.5L46.5U
2vs Auburn14-6W-6.0W54.5U
3@ Louisville47-21W-3.0W61O
4vs Boston College34-7W-33.5L53U
5@ Virginia Tech31-17W-7.0W48.5U
6vs Wake Forest28-14W-21.0L50.5U
7@ Syracuse24-27L-24.0L59U
9vs Georgia Tech24-10W-14.0P49U
10@ NC State38-31W-10.0L52O
11vs Florida State31-14W-16.5W45P
12vs The Citadel61-3W-47.5W--
13@ South Carolina34-10W-12.5W46.5U
14vs Miami38-3W-12.5W48U
18vs Alabama6-24L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-5-1
58.3%
O/U Record
2-9-1
18.2%
Straight Up
11-2
84.6%
Home ATS4-3
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS7-4
Underdog ATS0-1
Last 5 ATS
LWWWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off35thRush Off71thRed Zone Off89th3rd Down Off56thPass Def99thRush Def89thRed Zone Def87th3rd Down Def97th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.01062th-0.23798th
Red Zone+0.20189th-0.21287th
Third Down+0.03656th-0.47797th
No Garbage Time+0.02565th-0.308100th
First Half+0.05271th-0.25698th
Second Half-0.03944th-0.21997th
Early Downs-0.01061th-0.14088th
Passing Downs-0.06335th-0.35499th
Standard Downs+0.04271th-0.16189th
Goal to Go+0.14674th-0.39692th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 44.8%Rush 55.2%
Havoc/Game
17.0
Havoc Rate
25.3%
TO Margin
+0.3
Explosive/G
13.6
Yards/Game
429.6
Pts/Drive
2.34
3rd Down%
46.3%
3&Out%
19.4%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 14 games — Clemson vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatClemsonOpponents
Scoring
Points466190
Points / Game33.313.6
First Downs
Total309207
Rushing13699
Passing15489
Penalty1919
Rushing
Attempts578512
Yards2,7171,608
Yards / Carry4.73.1
Yards / Game194.1114.9
Touchdowns405
Passing
Attempts470396
Completions309208
Completion %65.7%52.5%
Yards3,2972,266
Yards / Attempt7.05.7
Touchdowns1716
Interceptions914
Passer Rating132.78106.85
Total Offense
Plays1,048908
Yards6,0143,874
Yards / Play5.74.3
Yards / Game429.6276.7
Punt Returns
Returns2921
Yards322206
Average11.19.8
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns2859
Yards5381,159
Average19.219.6
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts71104
Yards2,8864,522
Average40.643.5
Interception Returns
Returns149
Yards21498
Touchdowns31
Fumbles
Fumbles2017
Lost76
Penalties
Penalties6974
Yards608631
Yards / Game43.445.1
Time of Possession
Per Game30:4029:20
Third Downs
Attempts218222
Conversions10165
Conversion %46.3%29.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1826
Conversions1315
Conversion %72.2%57.7%
Red Zone
Trips5129
Scores (TD + FG)4623
Score %90.2%79.3%
Touchdowns3713
TD %72.5%44.8%
Field Goals
Attempts1919
Made1212
Pct63.2%63.2%
PAT Kicking
Attempts6222
Made5822
Pct93.5%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →