Fourth Down Data
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ALA

Alabama

Crimson TideRun-Heavy
Southeastern Conference13-1#5 (+27.94)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

96· AOverall
Offense
93· ARating
79· BPer play
82· BConsistency
43· CBig plays
Defense
98· A+Rating
95· APer play
91· A-Consistency
Situational
43· CRed-zone O
81· BRed-zone D
28· D3rd down O
68· C3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.125
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.182
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.070
Defensive EPA/play
-0.190
lower = better
Off Success Rate
50.5%
Def Success Rate
39.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
18.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.260
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.207
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.83

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.67
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.83
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.15
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.14
own return game
Return Defense
+0.13
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#5
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#1
AP 4 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#1
recruiting 4 spots higher
73 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Alabama ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
87th
Opp-adjusted defense
95th
Offensive EPA/play
80th
Defensive EPA/play
95th
Offensive success rate
90th
Explosiveness
44th
Defensive havoc
96th
Points per drive
89th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Clemson2017OA +0.135 / +0.278similar: havoc rate, defensive success rate, passing offense3932LSU2017OA +0.097 / +0.076similar: turnover rate, offensive EPA, havoc rate3733Michigan2022OA +0.201 / +0.122similar: TD drive rate, pass defense, offensive success rate3724Georgia2021OA +0.166 / +0.333similar: havoc rate, defensive EPA, defensive success rate3715App State2018OA +0.015 / +0.175similar: defensive EPA, defensive success rate, TD drive rate360

2017 Schedule & Results

14 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Florida State24-7W-3.5L45.5O
2vs Fresno State41-10W-42.5L54U
3vs Colorado State41-23W-31.0L55.5O
4@ Vanderbilt59-0W-19.5W42.5O
5vs Ole Miss66-3W-29.0W54.5O
6@ Texas A&M27-19W-25.0L56.5U
7vs Arkansas41-9W-37.0L53.5U
8vs Tennessee45-7W-36.5W51O
10vs LSU24-10W-20.5L45U
11@ Mississippi State31-24W-14.5L49O
12vs Mercer56-0W-49.0W--
13@ Auburn14-26L-5.0L47.5U
18@ Clemson24-6W----
19@ Georgia26-23W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-8
33.3%
O/U Record
6-5
54.5%
Straight Up
11-1
91.7%
Home ATS3-4
Away ATS1-4
Favorite ATS4-8
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
WLLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off26thRush Off91thRed Zone Off44th3rd Down Off28thPass Def74thRush Def98thRed Zone Def82th3rd Down Def69th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.05277th-0.18394th
Red Zone-0.02744th-0.16182th
Third Down-0.14528th-0.15169th
No Garbage Time+0.05376th-0.18993th
First Half+0.13090th-0.19189th
Second Half-0.02448th-0.17590th
Early Downs+0.10995th-0.21299th
Passing Downs-0.10326th-0.12174th
Standard Downs+0.11591th-0.22598th
Goal to Go-0.22021th-0.20177th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 35.2%Rush 64.8%
Havoc/Game
16.7
Havoc Rate
24.9%
TO Margin
+1.0
Explosive/G
11.9
Yards/Game
444.1
Pts/Drive
2.83
3rd Down%
40.4%
3&Out%
23.2%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 14 games — Alabama vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatAlabamaOpponents
Scoring
Points519167
Points / Game37.111.9
First Downs
Total311215
Rushing17476
Passing119114
Penalty1825
Rushing
Attempts612487
Yards3,5091,326
Yards / Carry5.72.7
Yards / Game250.694.7
Touchdowns369
Passing
Attempts332426
Completions204229
Completion %61.4%53.8%
Yards2,7082,320
Yards / Attempt8.25.4
Touchdowns288
Interceptions319
Passer Rating155.9996.78
Total Offense
Plays944913
Yards6,2173,646
Yards / Play6.64.0
Yards / Game444.1260.4
Punt Returns
Returns386
Yards30139
Average7.96.5
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2052
Yards438973
Average21.918.7
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5594
Yards2,3203,817
Average42.240.6
Interception Returns
Returns193
Yards27997
Touchdowns21
Fumbles
Fumbles2013
Lost75
Penalties
Penalties7061
Yards569455
Yards / Game40.632.5
Time of Possession
Per Game29:4530:15
Third Downs
Attempts178214
Conversions7274
Conversion %40.4%34.6%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1819
Conversions157
Conversion %83.3%36.8%
Red Zone
Trips6832
Scores (TD + FG)5824
Score %85.3%75.0%
Touchdowns4615
TD %67.6%46.9%
Field Goals
Attempts2816
Made1914
Pct67.9%87.5%
PAT Kicking
Attempts6416
Made6415
Pct100.0%93.8%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts12
Made10
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →