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ALA
Alabama
Crimson TideBalancedSoutheastern Conference13-0#1 (+21.09)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
99· A+Overall
Offense
99· A+Rating
99· A+Per play
99· A+Consistency
99· A+Big plays
Defense
81· BRating
48· CPer play
77· BConsistency
Situational
91· A-Red-zone O
91· A-Red-zone D
75· B3rd down O
33· D3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.144
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.007
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.403
Defensive EPA/play
+0.032
lower = better
Off Success Rate
59.8%
Def Success Rate
43.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
31.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
26.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.371
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.029
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
4.53
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+4.48
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.45
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.43
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.58
own return game
Return Defense
+3.02
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#1
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#1
model & AP agree
Market (Vegas)
#2
model 1 higher
Recruiting Rank
#1
model & recruiting agree
79 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Alabama ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense100th
Opp-adjusted defense59th
Offensive EPA/play100th
Defensive EPA/play48th
Offensive success rate100th
Explosiveness100th
Defensive havoc85th
Points per drive100th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1LSU2022OA +0.112 / +0.084similar: takeaway rate, run defense, pass defense4172Oregon2024OA +0.060 / +0.016similar: defensive success rate, offensive success rate, passing offense4143LSU2019OA +0.304 / +0.088similar: offensive EPA, offensive success rate, TD drive rate3884Oregon2023OA +0.268 / +0.089similar: TD drive rate, passing offense, offensive EPA3765Georgia State2026OA +0.063 / -0.016similar: havoc rate, TD drive rate, offensive EPA359
2020 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | @ Missouri | 38-19 | W | -28.0 | L | 56 | O |
| 5 | vs Texas A&M | 52-24 | W | -18.0 | W | 52.5 | O |
| 6 | @ Ole Miss | 63-48 | W | -23.5 | L | 69.5 | O |
| 7 | vs Georgia | 41-24 | W | -6.3 | W | 56.5 | O |
| 8 | @ Tennessee | 48-17 | W | -21.0 | W | 65.5 | U |
| 9 | vs Mississippi State | 41-0 | W | -30.8 | W | 63.5 | U |
| 12 | vs Kentucky | 63-3 | W | -32.0 | W | 57.5 | O |
| 13 | vs Auburn | 42-13 | W | -24.5 | W | 62.5 | U |
| 14 | @ LSU | 55-17 | W | -29.5 | W | 67 | O |
| 15 | @ Arkansas | 52-3 | W | -30.5 | W | 68.5 | U |
| 16 | @ Florida | 52-46 | W | -17.0 | L | 74.5 | O |
| 18 | vs Notre Dame | 31-14 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 19 | vs Ohio State | 52-24 | W | -8.5 | W | 74.5 | O |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
9-4
69.2%
O/U Record
8-5
61.5%
Straight Up
13-0
100.0%
Home ATS6-1
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS9-4
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
WWLLW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.282 | 99th | -0.030 | 68th |
| Red Zone | +0.289 | 92th | -0.273 | 92th |
| Third Down | +0.241 | 76th | +0.143 | 34th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.360 | 100th | -0.011 | 59th |
| First Half | +0.382 | 99th | -0.008 | 58th |
| Second Half | +0.158 | 89th | -0.052 | 73th |
| Early Downs | +0.227 | 99th | -0.106 | 82th |
| Passing Downs | +0.473 | 98th | +0.077 | 42th |
| Standard Downs | +0.213 | 100th | -0.092 | 83th |
| Goal to Go | +0.025 | 51th | -0.348 | 90th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 47.1%Rush 52.9%
Havoc/Game
15.7
Havoc Rate
22.0%
TO Margin
+0.8
Explosive/G
16.1
Yards/Game
541.6
Pts/Drive
4.53
3rd Down%
58.9%
3&Out%
5.4%
Team Statistics
2020 season totals across 13 games — Alabama vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Alabama | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 630 | 252 |
| Points / Game | 48.5 | 19.4 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 365 | 259 |
| Rushing | 132 | 89 |
| Passing | 210 | 143 |
| Penalty | 23 | 27 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 477 | 441 |
| Yards | 2,385 | 1,470 |
| Yards / Carry | 5.0 | 3.3 |
| Yards / Game | 183.5 | 113.1 |
| Touchdowns | 37 | 15 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 425 | 468 |
| Completions | 324 | 272 |
| Completion % | 76.2% | 58.1% |
| Yards | 4,656 | 3,109 |
| Yards / Attempt | 11.0 | 6.6 |
| Touchdowns | 42 | 15 |
| Interceptions | 4 | 12 |
| Passer Rating | 198.99 | 119.37 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 902 | 909 |
| Yards | 7,041 | 4,579 |
| Yards / Play | 7.8 | 5.0 |
| Yards / Game | 541.6 | 352.2 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 20 | 5 |
| Yards | 299 | 22 |
| Average | 14.9 | 4.4 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 18 | 34 |
| Yards | 276 | 618 |
| Average | 15.3 | 18.2 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 32 | 62 |
| Yards | 1,216 | 2,604 |
| Average | 38.0 | 42.0 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 12 | 4 |
| Yards | 212 | 83 |
| Touchdowns | 3 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 10 | 25 |
| Lost | 8 | 10 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 78 | 76 |
| Yards | 625 | 592 |
| Yards / Game | 48.1 | 45.5 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 30:55 | 29:05 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 146 | 200 |
| Conversions | 86 | 83 |
| Conversion % | 58.9% | 41.5% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 9 | 24 |
| Conversions | 5 | 13 |
| Conversion % | 55.6% | 54.2% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 68 | 39 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 63 | 29 |
| Score % | 92.6% | 74.4% |
| Touchdowns | 53 | 20 |
| TD % | 77.9% | 51.3% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 14 | 19 |
| Made | 14 | 14 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 73.7% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 84 | 28 |
| Made | 84 | 28 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 0 | 1 |
| Made | 0 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.