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LSU
LSU
TigersBalancedSoutheastern Conference10-4#35 (+3.91)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
74· BOverall
Offense
85· BRating
85· BPer play
89· BConsistency
82· BBig plays
Defense
70· BRating
57· CPer play
63· CConsistency
Situational
74· BRed-zone O
84· BRed-zone D
80· B3rd down O
35· D3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.112
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.084
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.112
Defensive EPA/play
-0.042
lower = better
Off Success Rate
50.9%
Def Success Rate
44.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
26.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.154
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.081
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.78
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-1.82
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.14
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.77
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.82
own return game
Return Defense
-0.37
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#35
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#16
AP 19 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#39
model 4 higher
Recruiting Rank
#8
recruiting 27 spots higher
54 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where LSU ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense84th
Opp-adjusted defense81th
Offensive EPA/play86th
Defensive EPA/play58th
Offensive success rate89th
Explosiveness83th
Defensive havoc43th
Points per drive85th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Alabama2020OA +0.144 / +0.007similar: takeaway rate, run defense, pass defense4172Florida State2022OA +0.148 / +0.042similar: offensive EPA, run defense, offensive success rate3753Georgia State2026OA +0.063 / -0.016similar: rushing offense, defensive EPA, turnover rate3574Mississippi State2026OA +0.028 / +0.032similar: takeaway rate, TD drive rate, havoc rate3495Texas2022OA +0.125 / +0.064similar: run defense, takeaway rate, turnover rate348
2022 Schedule & Results
14 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Florida State | 23-24 | L | -4.0 | L | 51 | U |
| 2 | vs Southern | 65-17 | W | -45.5 | W | 59.75 | O |
| 3 | vs Mississippi State | 31-16 | W | +3.0 | W | 53 | U |
| 4 | vs New Mexico | 38-0 | W | -31.5 | W | 45.5 | U |
| 5 | @ Auburn | 21-17 | W | -8.0 | L | 46 | U |
| 6 | vs Tennessee | 13-40 | L | +3.0 | L | 64 | U |
| 7 | @ Florida | 45-35 | W | +2.5 | W | 52 | O |
| 8 | vs Ole Miss | 45-20 | W | -2.0 | W | 68 | U |
| 10 | vs Alabama | 32-31 | W | +13.0 | W | 58 | O |
| 11 | @ Arkansas | 13-10 | W | -3.0 | P | 64 | U |
| 12 | vs UAB | 41-10 | W | -14.5 | W | 52.5 | U |
| 13 | @ Texas A&M | 23-38 | L | -10.0 | L | 47.5 | O |
| 14 | @ Georgia | 30-50 | L | +17.5 | L | 52 | O |
| 18 | @ Purdue | 63-7 | W | -15.0 | W | 55 | O |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
8-5-1
61.5%
O/U Record
6-8
42.9%
Straight Up
10-4
71.4%
Home ATS6-2
Away ATS2-3
Favorite ATS5-3
Underdog ATS3-2
Last 5 ATS
PWLLW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.109 | 87th | -0.060 | 67th |
| Red Zone | +0.113 | 75th | -0.237 | 85th |
| Third Down | +0.248 | 81th | +0.118 | 36th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.120 | 87th | -0.051 | 61th |
| First Half | +0.128 | 85th | -0.027 | 53th |
| Second Half | +0.091 | 83th | -0.094 | 79th |
| Early Downs | +0.096 | 89th | -0.096 | 81th |
| Passing Downs | +0.086 | 69th | +0.093 | 21th |
| Standard Downs | +0.119 | 93th | -0.144 | 91th |
| Goal to Go | +0.085 | 70th | -0.387 | 89th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 48.1%Rush 51.9%
Havoc/Game
12.2
Havoc Rate
17.5%
TO Margin
+0.1
Explosive/G
15.7
Yards/Game
453.0
Pts/Drive
2.78
3rd Down%
48.6%
3&Out%
10.4%
Team Statistics
2022 season totals across 14 games — LSU vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | LSU | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 483 | 315 |
| Points / Game | 34.5 | 22.5 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 347 | 263 |
| Rushing | 138 | 118 |
| Passing | 177 | 127 |
| Penalty | 32 | 18 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 517 | 507 |
| Yards | 2,572 | 2,077 |
| Yards / Carry | 5.0 | 4.1 |
| Yards / Game | 183.7 | 148.4 |
| Touchdowns | 39 | 18 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 480 | 423 |
| Completions | 322 | 236 |
| Completion % | 67.1% | 55.8% |
| Yards | 3,770 | 2,887 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.9 | 6.8 |
| Touchdowns | 23 | 17 |
| Interceptions | 7 | 9 |
| Passer Rating | 145.95 | 122.13 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 997 | 930 |
| Yards | 6,342 | 4,964 |
| Yards / Play | 6.4 | 5.3 |
| Yards / Game | 453.0 | 354.6 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 18 | 17 |
| Yards | 86 | 186 |
| Average | 4.8 | 10.9 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 17 | 30 |
| Yards | 337 | 690 |
| Average | 19.8 | 23.0 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 49 | 62 |
| Yards | 2,181 | 2,742 |
| Average | 44.5 | 44.2 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 9 | 7 |
| Yards | 196 | 114 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 16 | 24 |
| Lost | 12 | 11 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 86 | 82 |
| Yards | 745 | 805 |
| Yards / Game | 53.2 | 57.5 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 30:57 | 29:03 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 179 | 200 |
| Conversions | 87 | 78 |
| Conversion % | 48.6% | 39.0% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 22 | 30 |
| Conversions | 11 | 12 |
| Conversion % | 50.0% | 40.0% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 65 | 46 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 56 | 37 |
| Score % | 86.2% | 80.4% |
| Touchdowns | 47 | 23 |
| TD % | 72.3% | 50.0% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 14 | 23 |
| Made | 10 | 17 |
| Pct | 71.4% | 73.9% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 61 | 35 |
| Made | 59 | 34 |
| Pct | 96.7% | 97.1% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 4 | 3 |
| Made | 1 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.