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BYU
BYU
CougarsBalancedBig 12 Conference10-3#45 (+3.69)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
66· COverall
Offense
90· A-Rating
96· APer play
94· AConsistency
94· ABig plays
Defense
36· DRating
18· DPer play
28· DConsistency
Situational
94· ARed-zone O
42· CRed-zone D
95· A3rd down O
57· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.127
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.074
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.169
Defensive EPA/play
+0.084
lower = better
Off Success Rate
51.0%
Def Success Rate
47.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
28.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
26.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.085
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.039
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.06
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.16
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.28
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.50
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.14
own return game
Return Defense
-0.09
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#45
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#19
AP 26 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#22
market 23 higher
Recruiting Rank
#61
model 16 spots higher
2 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where BYU ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense91th
Opp-adjusted defense18th
Offensive EPA/play97th
Defensive EPA/play18th
Offensive success rate92th
Explosiveness95th
Defensive havoc37th
Points per drive95th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Washington State2024OA +0.048 / -0.028similar: havoc rate, TD drive rate, offensive success rate4372Kansas2022OA +0.219 / -0.086similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, run defense3863Memphis2023OA +0.076 / -0.068similar: passing offense, takeaway rate, offensive success rate3754Oklahoma2017OA +0.313 / -0.052similar: offensive EPA, rushing offense, TD drive rate3755Colorado State2017OA +0.040 / -0.109similar: passing offense, defensive EPA, pass defense372
2021 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Arizona | 24-16 | W | -12.5 | L | 54 | U |
| 2 | vs Utah | 26-17 | W | +6.5 | W | 46.5 | U |
| 3 | vs Arizona State | 27-17 | W | +3.0 | W | 50.5 | U |
| 4 | vs South Florida | 35-27 | W | -8.8 | W | 62.5 | U |
| 5 | @ Utah State | 34-20 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 6 | vs Boise State | 17-26 | L | -6.0 | L | 57 | U |
| 7 | @ Baylor | 24-38 | L | +6.0 | L | 50.5 | O |
| 8 | @ Washington State | 21-19 | W | -4.0 | L | 55.5 | U |
| 9 | vs Virginia | 66-49 | W | -2.5 | W | 64 | O |
| 10 | vs Idaho State | 59-14 | W | -36.5 | W | 54.75 | O |
| 12 | @ Georgia Southern | 34-17 | W | -20.0 | L | 57.5 | U |
| 13 | @ USC | 35-31 | W | -7.0 | L | 64.25 | O |
| 16 | vs UAB | 28-31 | L | -7.0 | L | 54.5 | O |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
5-8
38.5%
O/U Record
6-7
46.2%
Straight Up
10-3
76.9%
Home ATS4-3
Away ATS1-5
Favorite ATS3-7
Underdog ATS2-1
Last 5 ATS
WWLLL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.142 | 97th | +0.080 | 17th |
| Red Zone | +0.224 | 95th | -0.004 | 42th |
| Third Down | +0.397 | 95th | +0.046 | 57th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.154 | 95th | +0.087 | 17th |
| First Half | +0.181 | 95th | +0.075 | 22th |
| Second Half | +0.101 | 89th | +0.085 | 14th |
| Early Downs | +0.155 | 98th | +0.061 | 17th |
| Passing Downs | -0.051 | 37th | +0.024 | 39th |
| Standard Downs | +0.226 | 100th | +0.105 | 12th |
| Goal to Go | +0.084 | 73th | +0.253 | 14th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 44.8%Rush 55.2%
Havoc/Game
11.9
Havoc Rate
17.3%
TO Margin
+0.6
Explosive/G
18.0
Yards/Game
451.5
Pts/Drive
3.06
3rd Down%
45.9%
3&Out%
14.1%
Team Statistics
2021 season totals across 13 games — BYU vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | BYU | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 430 | 322 |
| Points / Game | 33.1 | 24.8 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 300 | 280 |
| Rushing | 141 | 118 |
| Passing | 141 | 145 |
| Penalty | 18 | 17 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 479 | 469 |
| Yards | 2,436 | 2,042 |
| Yards / Carry | 5.1 | 4.4 |
| Yards / Game | 187.4 | 157.1 |
| Touchdowns | 30 | 24 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 389 | 411 |
| Completions | 253 | 269 |
| Completion % | 65.0% | 65.5% |
| Yards | 3,433 | 3,015 |
| Yards / Attempt | 8.8 | 7.3 |
| Touchdowns | 26 | 14 |
| Interceptions | 5 | 15 |
| Passer Rating | 158.66 | 131.01 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 868 | 880 |
| Yards | 5,869 | 5,057 |
| Yards / Play | 6.8 | 5.7 |
| Yards / Game | 451.5 | 389.0 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 26 | 15 |
| Yards | 238 | 117 |
| Average | 9.2 | 7.8 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 17 | 31 |
| Yards | 298 | 665 |
| Average | 17.5 | 21.5 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 40 | 51 |
| Yards | 1,943 | 2,218 |
| Average | 48.6 | 43.5 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 15 | 5 |
| Yards | 82 | 60 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 19 | 15 |
| Lost | 7 | 5 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 66 | 68 |
| Yards | 539 | 520 |
| Yards / Game | 41.5 | 40.0 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 29:15 | 30:42 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 157 | 179 |
| Conversions | 72 | 77 |
| Conversion % | 45.9% | 43.0% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 24 | 26 |
| Conversions | 16 | 17 |
| Conversion % | 66.7% | 65.4% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 55 | 50 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 49 | 42 |
| Score % | 89.1% | 84.0% |
| Touchdowns | 41 | 29 |
| TD % | 74.5% | 58.0% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 16 | 21 |
| Made | 11 | 18 |
| Pct | 68.8% | 85.7% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 54 | 34 |
| Made | 53 | 34 |
| Pct | 98.1% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 3 | 4 |
| Made | 1 | 2 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.