Fourth Down Data
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AF

Air Force

FalconsRun-Heavy
Mountain West Conference4-8#90 (-5.76)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

34· DOverall
Offense
81· BRating
95· APer play
89· BConsistency
93· ABig plays
Defense
2· FRating
1· FPer play
5· FConsistency
Situational
89· BRed-zone O
33· DRed-zone D
92· A-3rd down O
0· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.132
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.200
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.186
Defensive EPA/play
+0.209
lower = better
Off Success Rate
51.1%
Def Success Rate
51.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
27.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.023
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.114
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.96

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.75
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.19
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.61
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.04
own return game
Return Defense
+0.09
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#90
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#72
market 18 higher
Recruiting Rank
#79
recruiting 11 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Air Force ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
87th
Opp-adjusted defense
1th
Offensive EPA/play
96th
Defensive EPA/play
1th
Offensive success rate
93th
Explosiveness
94th
Defensive havoc
4th
Points per drive
90th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1West Virginia2024OA +0.027 / -0.079similar: defensive EPA, pass defense, havoc rate3812Georgia Tech2018OA +0.123 / -0.089similar: rushing offense, TD drive rate, turnover rate3563North Texas2022OA +0.077 / -0.108similar: havoc rate, offensive EPA, rushing offense3484North Texas2023OA +0.070 / -0.236similar: defensive success rate, defensive EPA, havoc rate3405Louisiana2018OA +0.079 / -0.152similar: rushing offense, pass defense, run defense327

2025 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Bucknell49-13W-41.5L70.5U
3@ Utah State30-49L-4.5L51O
4vs Boise State37-49L+11.0L51.75O
5vs Hawai'i35-44L-1.5L54.5O
6@ Navy31-34L+13.5W51.5O
7@ UNLV48-51L+5.5W82.5O
8vs Wyoming24-21W-2.5W44.5O
10vs Army17-20L-0.8L48.5U
11@ San José State26-16W+6.0W67.5U
12@ UConn16-26L+7.5L64U
13vs New Mexico3-20L+3.5L53.5U
14@ Colorado State42-21W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
7-5
58.3%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS1-5
Away ATS4-2
Favorite ATS2-4
Underdog ATS3-3
Last 5 ATS
LWLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off90thRush Off98thRed Zone Off90th3rd Down Off93thPass Def0thRush Def3thRed Zone Def33th3rd Down Def0th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.18897th+0.2021th
Red Zone+0.21090th+0.06733th
Third Down+0.35493th+0.5720th
No Garbage Time+0.18796th+0.2041th
First Half+0.08275th+0.04130th
Second Half+0.295100th+0.3680th
Early Downs+0.08487th+0.1044th
Passing Downs+0.20790th+0.3490th
Standard Downs+0.18098th+0.1343th
Goal to Go+0.42695th-0.04153th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 20.0%Rush 80.0%
Havoc/Game
7.7
Havoc Rate
12.8%
TO Margin
-0.2
Explosive/G
18.2
Yards/Game
406.6
Pts/Drive
2.96
3rd Down%
51.0%
3&Out%
7.9%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 12 games — Air Force vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatAir ForceOpponents
Scoring
Points358364
Points / Game29.830.3
First Downs
Total264247
Rushing17799
Passing71133
Penalty1615
Rushing
Attempts654367
Yards3,1371,902
Yards / Carry4.85.2
Yards / Game261.4158.5
Touchdowns3327
Passing
Attempts164336
Completions97234
Completion %59.1%69.6%
Yards1,7423,176
Yards / Attempt10.69.5
Touchdowns1317
Interceptions77
Passer Rating165.99161.57
Total Offense
Plays818703
Yards4,8795,078
Yards / Play6.07.2
Yards / Game406.6423.2
Punt Returns
Returns38
Yards851
Average2.76.4
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns921
Yards190352
Average21.116.8
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts2329
Yards1,0241,281
Average44.544.2
Interception Returns
Returns77
Yards6755
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles85
Lost53
Penalties
Penalties4365
Yards375536
Yards / Game31.344.7
Time of Possession
Per Game33:5226:05
Third Downs
Attempts153137
Conversions7869
Conversion %51.0%50.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3416
Conversions2410
Conversion %70.6%62.5%
Red Zone
Trips5244
Scores (TD + FG)4739
Score %90.4%88.6%
Touchdowns3825
TD %73.1%56.8%
Field Goals
Attempts1520
Made1019
Pct66.7%95.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4041
Made4041
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts73
Made21
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →