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BUF
Buffalo
BullsRun-HeavyMid-American Conference4-8#108 (-5.69)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
19· DOverall
Offense
37· DRating
63· CPer play
68· CConsistency
47· CBig plays
Defense
13· FRating
13· FPer play
27· DConsistency
Situational
92· A-Red-zone O
59· CRed-zone D
60· C3rd down O
45· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.047
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.097
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.047
Defensive EPA/play
+0.113
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.7%
Def Success Rate
46.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
27.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.067
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.121
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.24
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.62
expected pts/game
Kicking
-1.07
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.74
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.54
own return game
Return Defense
+0.25
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#108
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#78
market 30 higher
Recruiting Rank
#72
recruiting 36 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Buffalo ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense32th
Opp-adjusted defense14th
Offensive EPA/play64th
Defensive EPA/play13th
Offensive success rate73th
Explosiveness47th
Defensive havoc83th
Points per drive52th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1West Virginia2022OA +0.016 / -0.049similar: TD drive rate, defensive EPA, pass defense3742Toledo2019OA -0.001 / -0.123similar: TD drive rate, takeaway rate, rushing offense3363Nebraska2018OA +0.111 / -0.034similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, offensive success rate3354Ole Miss2026OA +0.002 / -0.042similar: pass defense, TD drive rate, defensive success rate3345Cincinnati2023OA +0.022 / -0.098similar: offensive EPA, run defense, takeaway rate327
2021 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Wagner | 69-7 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 2 | @ Nebraska | 3-28 | L | +11.5 | L | 52.5 | U |
| 3 | vs Coastal Carolina | 25-28 | L | +14.0 | W | 57.5 | U |
| 4 | @ Old Dominion | 35-34 | W | -13.0 | L | 50.5 | O |
| 5 | vs Western Michigan | 17-24 | L | +7.0 | P | 59.5 | U |
| 6 | @ Kent State | 38-48 | L | +6.0 | L | 65 | O |
| 7 | vs Ohio | 27-26 | W | -9.0 | L | 57 | U |
| 8 | @ Akron | 45-10 | W | -11.0 | W | 57 | U |
| 9 | vs Bowling Green | 44-56 | L | -13.5 | L | 51.5 | O |
| 11 | @ Miami (OH) | 18-45 | L | +1.5 | L | 60.5 | U |
| 12 | vs Northern Illinois | 27-33 | L | +6.5 | L | 59.5 | U |
| 13 | @ Ball State | 3-20 | L | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
2-8-1
20.0%
O/U Record
4-7
36.4%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS1-3
Away ATS1-5
Favorite ATS1-3
Underdog ATS1-5
Last 5 ATS
WLLLL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.049 | 65th | +0.077 | 18th |
| Red Zone | +0.175 | 92th | -0.082 | 59th |
| Third Down | +0.135 | 60th | +0.098 | 45th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.052 | 70th | +0.113 | 11th |
| First Half | +0.057 | 69th | +0.118 | 14th |
| Second Half | +0.043 | 68th | +0.032 | 32th |
| Early Downs | +0.001 | 53th | +0.050 | 21th |
| Passing Downs | +0.075 | 74th | +0.135 | 13th |
| Standard Downs | +0.038 | 62th | +0.042 | 29th |
| Goal to Go | +0.424 | 98th | -0.220 | 74th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 40.5%Rush 59.5%
Havoc/Game
14.2
Havoc Rate
21.2%
TO Margin
-0.6
Explosive/G
15.9
Yards/Game
405.5
Pts/Drive
2.24
3rd Down%
46.7%
3&Out%
19.0%
Team Statistics
2021 season totals across 12 games — Buffalo vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Buffalo | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 351 | 359 |
| Points / Game | 29.3 | 29.9 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 285 | 245 |
| Rushing | 139 | 125 |
| Passing | 118 | 97 |
| Penalty | 28 | 23 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 539 | 489 |
| Yards | 2,283 | 2,339 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.2 | 4.8 |
| Yards / Game | 190.3 | 194.9 |
| Touchdowns | 30 | 27 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 367 | 298 |
| Completions | 218 | 183 |
| Completion % | 59.4% | 61.4% |
| Yards | 2,583 | 2,651 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.0 | 8.9 |
| Touchdowns | 12 | 20 |
| Interceptions | 11 | 3 |
| Passer Rating | 123.32 | 156.27 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 906 | 787 |
| Yards | 4,866 | 4,990 |
| Yards / Play | 5.4 | 6.3 |
| Yards / Game | 405.5 | 415.8 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 12 | 16 |
| Yards | 88 | 172 |
| Average | 7.3 | 10.8 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 37 | 22 |
| Yards | 694 | 384 |
| Average | 18.8 | 17.5 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 42 | 52 |
| Yards | 1,605 | 2,061 |
| Average | 38.2 | 39.6 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 3 | 11 |
| Yards | 19 | 165 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 15 | 20 |
| Lost | 8 | 9 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 65 | 95 |
| Yards | 624 | 846 |
| Yards / Game | 52.0 | 70.5 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 29:48 | 29:14 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 184 | 159 |
| Conversions | 86 | 62 |
| Conversion % | 46.7% | 39.0% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 24 | 20 |
| Conversions | 14 | 14 |
| Conversion % | 58.3% | 70.0% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 58 | 49 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 50 | 36 |
| Score % | 86.2% | 73.5% |
| Touchdowns | 38 | 28 |
| TD % | 65.5% | 57.1% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 22 | 20 |
| Made | 14 | 10 |
| Pct | 63.6% | 50.0% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 39 | 46 |
| Made | 39 | 45 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 97.8% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 5 | 0 |
| Made | 3 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.