Fourth Down Data
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KSU

Kansas State

WildcatsRun-Heavy
Big 12 Conference1-0#31 (+5.75)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

77· BOverall
Offense
63· CRating
61· CPer play
71· BConsistency
75· BBig plays
Defense
73· BRating
98· A+Per play
98· A+Consistency
Situational
85· BRed-zone O
90· A-Red-zone D
87· B3rd down O
90· A-3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.003
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.089
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.136
Defensive EPA/play
-0.927
lower = better
Off Success Rate
60.6%
Def Success Rate
25.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
26.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
0.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+1.063
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
4.67

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.04
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.07
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.33
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.80
own return game
Return Defense
-0.02
vs opponent returns

Peer Context

Where Kansas State ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
45th
Opp-adjusted defense
95th
Offensive EPA/play
62th
Defensive EPA/play
99th
Offensive success rate
91th
Explosiveness
76th
Defensive havoc
88th
Points per drive
78th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Auburn2017OA +0.082 / +0.202similar: offensive EPA, run defense, takeaway rate3442James Madison2022OA +0.014 / +0.183similar: defensive EPA, defensive success rate, offensive EPA3343Tennessee2026OA +0.011 / +0.057similar: rushing offense, TD drive rate, offensive success rate3334TCU2017OA -0.025 / +0.166similar: defensive success rate, havoc rate, offensive EPA3325Ohio State2025OA +0.173 / +0.241similar: defensive EPA, rushing offense, pass defense321

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Nicholls State71-3W-41.5W55O
2vs Washington State------
3vs Tulane------
4@ Cincinnati------
6vs Houston------
7vs Kansas------
8@ Arizona State------
9@ Colorado------
10vs Oklahoma State------
11@ TCU------
12vs Arizona------
13@ Iowa State------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
1-0
100.0%
O/U Record
1-0
100.0%
Straight Up
1-0
100.0%
Home ATS1-0
Away ATS0-0
Favorite ATS1-0
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
W
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off75thRush Off79thRed Zone Off86th3rd Down Off88thPass Def69thRush Def86thRed Zone Def91th3rd Down Def91th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.22885th-0.30787th
Red Zone+0.55986th-0.84591th
Third Down+0.77788th-0.77491th
No Garbage Time+0.13663th-0.27878th
First Half+0.13661th-0.27875th
Second Half+0.33487th-0.34288th
Early Downs+0.12170th-0.31182th
Passing Downs+0.37575th-0.22369th
Standard Downs+0.16679th-0.38586th
Goal to Go+0.37558th-0th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 38.0%Rush 62.0%
Havoc/Game
18.0
Havoc Rate
31.0%
TO Margin
0.0
Explosive/G
10.0
Yards/Game
559.0
Pts/Drive
4.67
3rd Down%
81.8%
3&Out%
0.0%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — Kansas State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatKansas StateOpponents
Scoring
Points713
Points / Game71.03.0
First Downs
Total349
Rushing188
Passing141
Penalty20
Rushing
Attempts4439
Yards31292
Yards / Carry7.12.4
Yards / Game312.092.0
Touchdowns60
Passing
Attempts2719
Completions207
Completion %74.1%36.8%
Yards24730
Yards / Attempt9.11.6
Touchdowns30
Interceptions00
Passer Rating187.5950.11
Total Offense
Plays7158
Yards559122
Yards / Play7.92.1
Yards / Game559.0122.0
Punt Returns
Returns30
Yards900
Average30.0—
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns20
Yards430
Average21.5—
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts210
Yards96374
Average48.037.4
Interception Returns
Returns00
Yards00
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles23
Lost11
Penalties
Penalties12
Yards1026
Yards / Game10.026.0
Time of Possession
Per Game33:4326:17
Third Downs
Attempts1116
Conversions94
Conversion %81.8%25.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts01
Conversions01
Conversion %—100.0%
Red Zone
Trips61
Scores (TD + FG)61
Score %100.0%100.0%
Touchdowns60
TD %100.0%0.0%
Field Goals
Attempts01
Made01
Pct—100.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts90
Made90
Pct100.0%—
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts10
Made10
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →