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CIN
Cincinnati
BearcatsBalancedBig 12 Conference5-7#71 (+0.56)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
47· COverall
Offense
58· CRating
61· CPer play
78· BConsistency
24· DBig plays
Defense
51· CRating
33· DPer play
42· CConsistency
Situational
14· FRed-zone O
65· CRed-zone D
74· B3rd down O
11· F3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.013
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.011
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.035
Defensive EPA/play
+0.027
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.9%
Def Success Rate
45.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.008
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.063
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.30
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.83
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.11
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.67
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.09
own return game
Return Defense
+0.04
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#71
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#69
market 2 higher
Recruiting Rank
#58
recruiting 13 spots higher
5 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Cincinnati ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense60th
Opp-adjusted defense35th
Offensive EPA/play62th
Defensive EPA/play34th
Offensive success rate77th
Explosiveness24th
Defensive havoc52th
Points per drive55th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Oregon2026OA +0.017 / -0.041similar: rushing offense, havoc rate, offensive EPA3592Georgia State2023OA +0.002 / -0.083similar: offensive EPA, rushing offense, TD drive rate3433Michigan2025OA +0.091 / +0.024similar: offensive success rate, TD drive rate, turnover rate3394Houston2026OA +0.008 / -0.042similar: pass defense, TD drive rate, offensive success rate3355UCF2022OA +0.098 / -0.025similar: defensive EPA, takeaway rate, defensive success rate333
2024 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Towson | 38-20 | W | -31.5 | L | 54 | O |
| 2 | vs Pittsburgh | 27-28 | L | -2.0 | L | 59.25 | U |
| 3 | @ Miami (OH) | 27-16 | W | -3.5 | W | 46 | U |
| 4 | vs Houston | 34-0 | W | -3.5 | W | 47.5 | U |
| 5 | @ Texas Tech | 41-44 | L | +2.5 | L | 58.5 | O |
| 7 | @ UCF | 19-13 | W | +3.0 | W | 59 | U |
| 8 | vs Arizona State | 24-14 | W | -2.5 | W | 53.5 | U |
| 9 | @ Colorado | 23-34 | L | +5.5 | L | 57 | P |
| 11 | vs West Virginia | 24-31 | L | -5.0 | L | 56.5 | U |
| 12 | @ Iowa State | 17-34 | L | +8.5 | L | 53.5 | U |
| 13 | @ Kansas State | 15-41 | L | +8.5 | L | 53 | O |
| 14 | vs TCU | 13-20 | L | +3.5 | L | 58.5 | U |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
4-8
33.3%
O/U Record
3-8-1
27.3%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS3-3
Underdog ATS1-5
Last 5 ATS
LLLLL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.030 | 57th | +0.022 | 36th |
| Red Zone | -0.184 | 14th | -0.088 | 66th |
| Third Down | +0.213 | 75th | +0.305 | 11th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.035 | 61th | +0.026 | 36th |
| First Half | +0.038 | 64th | -0.043 | 59th |
| Second Half | +0.021 | 50th | +0.087 | 19th |
| Early Downs | -0.022 | 46th | +0.013 | 33th |
| Passing Downs | +0.179 | 89th | +0.095 | 25th |
| Standard Downs | -0.042 | 33th | -0.016 | 51th |
| Goal to Go | -0.035 | 41th | +0.075 | 38th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 48.1%Rush 51.9%
Havoc/Game
11.8
Havoc Rate
18.2%
TO Margin
-0.3
Explosive/G
14.6
Yards/Game
420.6
Pts/Drive
2.30
3rd Down%
41.9%
3&Out%
14.7%
Team Statistics
2024 season totals across 12 games — Cincinnati vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Cincinnati | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 302 | 295 |
| Points / Game | 25.2 | 24.6 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 265 | 225 |
| Rushing | 108 | 92 |
| Passing | 140 | 115 |
| Penalty | 17 | 18 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 427 | 414 |
| Yards | 2,209 | 1,952 |
| Yards / Carry | 5.2 | 4.7 |
| Yards / Game | 184.1 | 162.7 |
| Touchdowns | 19 | 15 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 395 | 348 |
| Completions | 252 | 213 |
| Completion % | 63.8% | 61.2% |
| Yards | 2,838 | 2,673 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.2 | 7.7 |
| Touchdowns | 18 | 16 |
| Interceptions | 7 | 5 |
| Passer Rating | 135.64 | 138.03 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 822 | 762 |
| Yards | 5,047 | 4,625 |
| Yards / Play | 6.1 | 6.1 |
| Yards / Game | 420.6 | 385.4 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 9 | 15 |
| Yards | 42 | 114 |
| Average | 4.7 | 7.6 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 19 | 29 |
| Yards | 390 | 600 |
| Average | 20.5 | 20.7 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 42 | 46 |
| Yards | 1,791 | 1,978 |
| Average | 42.6 | 43.0 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 5 | 7 |
| Yards | 1 | 149 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 2 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 19 | 20 |
| Lost | 11 | 9 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 64 | 65 |
| Yards | 533 | 515 |
| Yards / Game | 44.4 | 42.9 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 31:43 | 28:17 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 155 | 159 |
| Conversions | 65 | 62 |
| Conversion % | 41.9% | 39.0% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 20 | 24 |
| Conversions | 11 | 12 |
| Conversion % | 55.0% | 50.0% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 45 | 39 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 36 | 35 |
| Score % | 80.0% | 89.7% |
| Touchdowns | 26 | 20 |
| TD % | 57.8% | 51.3% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 22 | 24 |
| Made | 16 | 20 |
| Pct | 72.7% | 83.3% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 34 | 31 |
| Made | 32 | 31 |
| Pct | 94.1% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 3 | 3 |
| Made | 0 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.