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CIN
Cincinnati
BearcatsRun-HeavyBig 12 Conference3-9#105 (-4.54)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
23· DOverall
Offense
37· DRating
62· CPer play
62· CConsistency
66· CBig plays
Defense
18· DRating
7· FPer play
65· CConsistency
Situational
15· DRed-zone O
38· DRed-zone D
79· B3rd down O
20· D3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.022
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.098
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.040
Defensive EPA/play
+0.133
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.5%
Def Success Rate
45.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
28.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.093
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.064
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.99
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.65
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.29
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.84
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.15
own return game
Return Defense
+0.04
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#105
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#87
market 18 higher
Recruiting Rank
#53
recruiting 52 spots higher
6 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Cincinnati ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense63th
Opp-adjusted defense7th
Offensive EPA/play63th
Defensive EPA/play6th
Offensive success rate63th
Explosiveness66th
Defensive havoc60th
Points per drive40th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Kansas2025OA +0.147 / -0.040similar: defensive success rate, pass defense, turnover rate3482Kent State2022OA +0.022 / -0.104similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, takeaway rate3323Missouri2021OA +0.061 / -0.103similar: pass defense, passing offense, offensive success rate3294Buffalo2021OA -0.047 / -0.097similar: offensive EPA, takeaway rate, run defense3255Houston2019OA +0.003 / -0.090similar: defensive EPA, pass defense, takeaway rate322
2023 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Eastern Kentucky | 66-13 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 2 | @ Pittsburgh | 27-21 | W | +6.5 | W | 45 | O |
| 3 | vs Miami (OH) | 24-31 | L | -14.0 | L | 45.5 | O |
| 4 | vs Oklahoma | 6-20 | L | -1.0 | L | 49.5 | O |
| 5 | @ BYU | 27-35 | L | - | - | - | - |
| 7 | vs Iowa State | 10-30 | L | -5.0 | L | 45.5 | U |
| 8 | vs Baylor | 29-32 | L | -3.0 | L | 50.5 | O |
| 9 | @ Oklahoma State | 13-45 | L | +7.5 | L | 53.5 | O |
| 10 | vs UCF | 26-28 | L | +4.5 | W | 59.5 | U |
| 11 | @ Houston | 24-14 | W | +2.5 | W | 55.5 | U |
| 12 | @ West Virginia | 21-42 | L | +6.5 | L | 54.5 | O |
| 13 | vs Kansas | 16-49 | L | +6.0 | L | 58.5 | O |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
3-7-1
30.0%
O/U Record
7-4
63.6%
Straight Up
3-9
25.0%
Home ATS1-4
Away ATS2-3
Favorite ATS0-4
Underdog ATS3-3
Last 5 ATS
LWWLL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.058 | 70th | +0.139 | 4th |
| Red Zone | -0.189 | 15th | +0.037 | 39th |
| Third Down | +0.330 | 80th | +0.313 | 20th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.040 | 62th | +0.153 | 4th |
| First Half | +0.083 | 68th | +0.126 | 10th |
| Second Half | +0.032 | 62th | +0.152 | 5th |
| Early Downs | -0.046 | 46th | +0.028 | 24th |
| Passing Downs | +0.287 | 93th | +0.283 | 4th |
| Standard Downs | -0.060 | 28th | +0.053 | 27th |
| Goal to Go | -0.201 | 13th | +0.173 | 26th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 41.0%Rush 59.0%
Havoc/Game
12.0
Havoc Rate
19.1%
TO Margin
-0.3
Explosive/G
16.4
Yards/Game
426.1
Pts/Drive
1.99
3rd Down%
42.0%
3&Out%
15.4%
Team Statistics
2023 season totals across 12 games — Cincinnati vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Cincinnati | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 289 | 360 |
| Points / Game | 24.1 | 30.0 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 267 | 238 |
| Rushing | 138 | 109 |
| Passing | 118 | 106 |
| Penalty | 11 | 23 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 517 | 397 |
| Yards | 2,605 | 2,123 |
| Yards / Carry | 5.0 | 5.3 |
| Yards / Game | 217.1 | 176.9 |
| Touchdowns | 14 | 24 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 360 | 328 |
| Completions | 218 | 186 |
| Completion % | 60.6% | 56.7% |
| Yards | 2,508 | 2,710 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.0 | 8.3 |
| Touchdowns | 21 | 20 |
| Interceptions | 11 | 8 |
| Passer Rating | 132.21 | 141.35 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 877 | 725 |
| Yards | 5,113 | 4,833 |
| Yards / Play | 5.8 | 6.7 |
| Yards / Game | 426.1 | 402.8 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 15 | 16 |
| Yards | 52 | 72 |
| Average | 3.5 | 4.5 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 15 | 25 |
| Yards | 249 | 501 |
| Average | 16.6 | 20.0 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 45 | 46 |
| Yards | 1,935 | 2,089 |
| Average | 43.0 | 45.4 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 8 | 11 |
| Yards | 100 | 109 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 17 | 17 |
| Lost | 6 | 5 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 68 | 60 |
| Yards | 631 | 437 |
| Yards / Game | 52.6 | 36.4 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 31:58 | 28:02 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 176 | 148 |
| Conversions | 74 | 59 |
| Conversion % | 42.0% | 39.9% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 31 | 17 |
| Conversions | 14 | 12 |
| Conversion % | 45.2% | 70.6% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 43 | 46 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 33 | 40 |
| Score % | 76.7% | 87.0% |
| Touchdowns | 22 | 30 |
| TD % | 51.2% | 65.2% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 19 | 19 |
| Made | 15 | 13 |
| Pct | 78.9% | 68.4% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 30 | 45 |
| Made | 30 | 45 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 5 | 1 |
| Made | 2 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.