Fourth Down Data
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KENT

Kent State

Golden FlashesRun-Heavy
Mid-American Conference5-7#76 (-0.76)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

44· COverall
Offense
56· CRating
61· CPer play
73· BConsistency
47· CBig plays
Defense
15· DRating
16· DPer play
12· FConsistency
Situational
12· FRed-zone O
77· BRed-zone D
66· C3rd down O
78· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.022
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.104
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.026
Defensive EPA/play
+0.083
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.4%
Def Success Rate
48.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.057
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.063
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.24

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+2.14
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.92
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+1.12
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.71
own return game
Return Defense
+1.24
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#76
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#101
model 25 higher
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 1 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Kent State ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
57th
Opp-adjusted defense
12th
Offensive EPA/play
62th
Defensive EPA/play
17th
Offensive success rate
81th
Explosiveness
47th
Defensive havoc
24th
Points per drive
54th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Cincinnati2023OA +0.022 / -0.098similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, takeaway rate3322Cincinnati2024OA +0.013 / -0.011similar: offensive EPA, rushing offense, offensive success rate3203Auburn2020OA -0.001 / -0.017similar: rushing offense, defensive success rate, passing offense3194Colorado2017OA -0.028 / -0.076similar: defensive success rate, TD drive rate, havoc rate3145New Mexico State2023OA +0.084 / -0.071similar: defensive EPA, defensive success rate, takeaway rate310

2022 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Washington20-45L+23.0L59.5O
2@ Oklahoma3-33L+33.0W72.5U
3vs LIU63-10W----
4@ Georgia22-39L+45.0W62U
5vs Ohio31-24W-11.5L65U
6@ Miami (OH)24-27L-5.0L56.5U
7@ Toledo31-52L+7.5L61.5O
8vs Akron33-27W-18.5L68U
10vs Ball State20-27L-2.5W55.5U
11@ Bowling Green40-6W-7.5L60U
12vs Eastern Michigan24-31L----
13@ Buffalo30-27W+4.0W53O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-7
36.4%
O/U Record
3-8
27.3%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS0-4
Away ATS4-3
Favorite ATS1-5
Underdog ATS3-2
Last 5 ATS
LLWLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off72thRush Off50thRed Zone Off12th3rd Down Off67thPass Def41thRush Def20thRed Zone Def78th3rd Down Def79th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.03061th+0.03028th
Red Zone-0.23912th-0.18478th
Third Down+0.16567th-0.08779th
No Garbage Time+0.03265th+0.07816th
First Half+0.06970th+0.04924th
Second Half-0.01351th+0.01036th
Early Downs+0.01763th+0.02130th
Passing Downs+0.10572th+0.01141th
Standard Downs-0.01150th+0.03820th
Goal to Go-0.00156th+0.12923th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 40.3%Rush 59.7%
Havoc/Game
12.3
Havoc Rate
16.0%
TO Margin
0.0
Explosive/G
14.8
Yards/Game
417.9
Pts/Drive
2.24
3rd Down%
41.1%
3&Out%
19.8%

Team Statistics

2022 season totals across 12 games — Kent State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatKent StateOpponents
Scoring
Points341348
Points / Game28.429.0
First Downs
Total274278
Rushing139111
Passing120150
Penalty1517
Rushing
Attempts517496
Yards2,4331,921
Yards / Carry4.73.9
Yards / Game202.8160.1
Touchdowns2319
Passing
Attempts349403
Completions194282
Completion %55.6%70.0%
Yards2,5823,271
Yards / Attempt7.48.1
Touchdowns1723
Interceptions87
Passer Rating129.22153.51
Total Offense
Plays866899
Yards5,0155,192
Yards / Play5.85.8
Yards / Game417.9432.7
Punt Returns
Returns1516
Yards11394
Average7.55.9
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns3834
Yards847575
Average22.316.9
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts4752
Yards1,8541,911
Average39.436.8
Interception Returns
Returns78
Yards7133
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles1114
Lost56
Penalties
Penalties8060
Yards652487
Yards / Game54.340.6
Time of Possession
Per Game26:0733:54
Third Downs
Attempts175180
Conversions7271
Conversion %41.1%39.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2431
Conversions1218
Conversion %50.0%58.1%
Red Zone
Trips4946
Scores (TD + FG)3838
Score %77.6%82.6%
Touchdowns2725
TD %55.1%54.3%
Field Goals
Attempts2620
Made1717
Pct65.4%85.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3641
Made3641
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts51
Made10
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →