Fourth Down Data
← All Teams
APP

App State

MountaineersRun-Heavy
Sun Belt Conference13-1#26 (+12.12)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

81· BOverall
Offense
72· BRating
86· BPer play
52· CConsistency
75· BBig plays
Defense
84· BRating
78· BPer play
81· BConsistency
Situational
95· ARed-zone O
33· DRed-zone D
83· B3rd down O
98· A+3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.054
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.099
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.111
Defensive EPA/play
-0.094
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.6%
Def Success Rate
41.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.205
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.024
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.90

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.20
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.39
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.46
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.10
own return game
Return Defense
+0.25
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#26
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#19
AP 7 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
model 49 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where App State ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
73th
Opp-adjusted defense
84th
Offensive EPA/play
87th
Defensive EPA/play
78th
Offensive success rate
55th
Explosiveness
76th
Defensive havoc
83th
Points per drive
92th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Georgia2017OA +0.162 / +0.179similar: passing offense, defensive success rate, TD drive rate3842Notre Dame2019OA +0.039 / +0.186similar: turnover rate, offensive success rate, havoc rate3763Penn State2017OA +0.117 / +0.130similar: TD drive rate, defensive success rate, offensive EPA3654Toledo2023OA +0.030 / +0.045similar: pass defense, havoc rate, rushing offense3655Syracuse2026OA +0.031 / +0.060similar: offensive EPA, defensive success rate, takeaway rate364

2019 Schedule & Results

14 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs East Tennessee State42-7W-17.0L47O
2vs Charlotte56-41W-23.0L54O
4@ North Carolina34-31W+1.5W58O
5vs Coastal Carolina56-37W-14.5W58O
7@ Louisiana17-7W+2.5W69.5U
8vs UL Monroe52-7W-16.5W65.5U
9@ South Alabama30-3W-27.5L51U
10vs Georgia Southern21-24L-14.0L41.5O
11@ South Carolina20-15W+7.0W51U
12@ Georgia State56-27W-15.0W61.5O
13vs Texas State35-13W-28.0L51U
14@ Troy48-13W-11.5W64U
15vs Louisiana45-38W-6.0W57.5O
17@ UAB31-17W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
8-5
61.5%
O/U Record
7-6
53.8%
Straight Up
12-1
92.3%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS5-2
Favorite ATS5-5
Underdog ATS3-0
Last 5 ATS
WWLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off90thRush Off64thRed Zone Off96th3rd Down Off84thPass Def80thRush Def82thRed Zone Def33th3rd Down Def99th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.09584th-0.10084th
Red Zone+0.34696th+0.05933th
Third Down+0.20084th-0.32599th
No Garbage Time+0.10586th-0.08776th
First Half+0.13787th-0.11784th
Second Half+0.04766th-0.08281th
Early Downs-0.00545th-0.07979th
Passing Downs+0.21490th-0.09480th
Standard Downs+0.03164th-0.10382th
Goal to Go+0.33392th+0.14621th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 38.2%Rush 61.8%
Havoc/Game
14.9
Havoc Rate
21.7%
TO Margin
+1.1
Explosive/G
16.1
Yards/Game
433.1
Pts/Drive
2.90
3rd Down%
44.5%
3&Out%
22.4%

Team Statistics

2019 season totals across 14 games — App State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatApp StateOpponents
Scoring
Points543280
Points / Game38.820.0
First Downs
Total295258
Rushing15197
Passing124133
Penalty2028
Rushing
Attempts599485
Yards3,2401,811
Yards / Carry5.43.7
Yards / Game231.4129.4
Touchdowns3514
Passing
Attempts370455
Completions231253
Completion %62.4%55.6%
Yards2,8242,894
Yards / Attempt7.66.4
Touchdowns3020
Interceptions614
Passer Rating150.06117.38
Total Offense
Plays969940
Yards6,0644,705
Yards / Play6.35.0
Yards / Game433.1336.1
Punt Returns
Returns2317
Yards22062
Average9.63.6
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns2348
Yards562910
Average24.419.0
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts7185
Yards3,0353,594
Average42.742.3
Interception Returns
Returns146
Yards15087
Touchdowns41
Fumbles
Fumbles920
Lost310
Penalties
Penalties9588
Yards899664
Yards / Game64.247.4
Time of Possession
Per Game31:1928:40
Third Downs
Attempts200202
Conversions8962
Conversion %44.5%30.7%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1626
Conversions1315
Conversion %81.3%57.7%
Red Zone
Trips6032
Scores (TD + FG)5527
Score %91.7%84.4%
Touchdowns4720
TD %78.3%62.5%
Field Goals
Attempts1619
Made1113
Pct68.8%68.4%
PAT Kicking
Attempts7331
Made7229
Pct98.6%93.5%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts04
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →