Washington State Cougars Football Analytics

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WSU

Washington State

CougarsBalanced

Pac-12 Conference7-6#58 (+1.80)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

57· COverall

Offense

37· DRating

32· DPer play

29· DConsistency

19· DBig plays

Defense

73· BRating

89· BPer play

54· CConsistency

Situational

67· CRed-zone O

65· CRed-zone D

21· D3rd down O

90· A-3rd down D

How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense

-0.049

Opp-Adj Defense

+0.072

higher = better

Offensive EPA/play

-0.054

Defensive EPA/play

-0.126

lower = better

Off Success Rate

43.3%

Def Success Rate

46.5%

allowed · lower = better

Explosive Rate

21.2%

pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8

Explosive Allowed

20.8%

lower = better

Net EPA/play

+0.072

net · higher = better

Recent EPA Trend

+0.028

last 3 weeks

Points / Drive

2.09

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating

+0.22

expected pts/game

Kicking

+0.08

own kicking game

Kick Defense

+0.02

vs opponent kicks

Returns

+0.04

own return game

Return Defense

+0.07

vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank

#58

opponent-adjusted strength

AP Poll

NR

—

Market (Vegas)

#114

model 56 higher

Recruiting Rank

#79

model 21 spots higher

0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Washington State ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense

34th

Opp-adjusted defense

77th

Offensive EPA/play

32th

Defensive EPA/play

90th

Offensive success rate

23th

Explosiveness

19th

Defensive havoc

48th

Points per drive

40th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Middle Tennessee2017OA -0.076 / -0.008similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, run defense377 2Eastern Michigan2017OA -0.078 / +0.060similar: offensive EPA, rushing offense, passing offense373 3Nevada2018OA -0.075 / +0.074similar: turnover rate, TD drive rate, passing offense362 4Troy2020OA -0.011 / +0.020similar: rushing offense, run defense, turnover rate343 5Indiana2017OA -0.039 / +0.073similar: pass defense, takeaway rate, run defense329

2025 Schedule & Results

13 games

Wk	Opponent	Score	W/L	Spread	ATS	Total	O/U
1	vs Idaho	13-10	W	-16.3	L	50.5	U
2	vs San Diego State	36-13	W	-1.5	W	47	O
3	@ North Texas	10-59	L	+44.0	L	65.5	O
4	vs Washington	24-59	L	+21.0	L	51.5	O
5	@ Colorado State	20-3	W	+5.5	W	48.5	U
7	@ Ole Miss	21-24	L	+32.0	W	58.5	U
8	@ Virginia	20-22	L	+16.5	W	56.5	U
9	vs Toledo	28-7	W	-7.5	W	45.5	U
10	@ Oregon State	7-10	L	-3.3	L	47.5	U
12	vs Louisiana Tech	28-3	W	-8.5	W	43.5	U
13	@ James Madison	20-24	L	+13.5	W	42.5	O
14	vs Oregon State	32-8	W	-14.0	W	42.5	U
17	@ Utah State	34-21	W	+1.5	W	49.5	O

Betting Profile

ATS Record

9-4

69.2%

O/U Record

5-8

38.5%

Straight Up

7-6

53.8%

Home ATS4-2

Away ATS5-2

Favorite ATS4-2

Underdog ATS5-2

Last 5 ATS

LWWWW

Full ATS log & splits →

Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Situation	OFF EPA	OFF Rank	DEF EPA	DEF Rank
Overall	-0.065	30th	-0.094	84th
Red Zone	+0.090	68th	-0.086	66th
Third Down	-0.082	21th	-0.162	91th
No Garbage Time	-0.054	34th	-0.123	89th
First Half	-0.018	42th	-0.199	96th
Second Half	-0.119	10th	+0.014	41th
Early Downs	-0.071	21th	+0.017	30th
Passing Downs	-0.148	19th	-0.266	97th
Standard Downs	-0.018	40th	-0.011	53th
Goal to Go	+0.152	73th	+0.534	1th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 48.2%Rush 51.8%

Havoc/Game

11.2

Havoc Rate

18.1%

TO Margin

-0.7

Explosive/G

12.9

Yards/Game

338.7

Pts/Drive

2.09

3rd Down%

38.3%

3&Out%

19.1%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 13 games — Washington State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.

Stat	Washington State	Opponents
Scoring
Points	293	263
Points / Game	22.5	20.2
First Downs
Total	254	216
Rushing	97	100
Passing	130	98
Penalty	27	18
Rushing
Attempts	440	429
Yards	1,666	1,627
Yards / Carry	3.8	3.8
Yards / Game	128.2	125.2
Touchdowns	16	15
Passing
Attempts	409	352
Completions	262	224
Completion %	64.1%	63.6%
Yards	2,737	2,267
Yards / Attempt	6.7	6.4
Touchdowns	19	16
Interceptions	15	6
Passer Rating	128.27	129.33
Total Offense
Plays	849	781
Yards	4,403	3,894
Yards / Play	5.2	5.0
Yards / Game	338.7	299.5
Punt Returns
Returns	24	11
Yards	415	43
Average	17.3	3.9
Touchdowns	0	0
Kickoff Returns
Returns	14	20
Yards	251	375
Average	17.9	18.8
Touchdowns	0	0
Punting
Punts	55	64
Yards	2,197	2,888
Average	39.9	45.1
Interception Returns
Returns	6	15
Yards	8	293
Touchdowns	0	2
Fumbles
Fumbles	14	12
Lost	5	5
Penalties
Penalties	87	85
Yards	729	821
Yards / Game	56.1	63.2
Time of Possession
Per Game	32:24	27:35
Third Downs
Attempts	175	165
Conversions	67	58
Conversion %	38.3%	35.2%
Fourth Downs
Attempts	21	21
Conversions	15	7
Conversion %	71.4%	33.3%
Red Zone
Trips	43	33
Scores (TD + FG)	37	24
Score %	86.0%	72.7%
Touchdowns	25	20
TD %	58.1%	60.6%
Field Goals
Attempts	19	16
Made	16	10
Pct	84.2%	62.5%
PAT Kicking
Attempts	33	31
Made	33	31
Pct	100.0%	100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts	2	2
Made	0	1

Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.

Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →