Fourth Down Data
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UNM

New Mexico

LobosBalanced
Mountain West Conference9-4#66 (+0.14)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

51· COverall
Offense
54· CRating
52· CPer play
48· CConsistency
29· DBig plays
Defense
48· CRating
59· CPer play
65· CConsistency
Situational
51· CRed-zone O
4· FRed-zone D
78· B3rd down O
42· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.009
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.001
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.004
Defensive EPA/play
-0.042
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.1%
Def Success Rate
44.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.046
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.113
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.27

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.80
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.73
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.16
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.12
own return game
Return Defense
+0.11
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#66
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#87
model 21 higher
Recruiting Rank
#79
model 13 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where New Mexico ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
50th
Opp-adjusted defense
55th
Offensive EPA/play
53th
Defensive EPA/play
59th
Offensive success rate
50th
Explosiveness
29th
Defensive havoc
77th
Points per drive
52th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Iowa State2018OA +0.002 / +0.065similar: defensive EPA, run defense, offensive success rate3792Central Michigan2019OA -0.065 / -0.005similar: passing offense, run defense, turnover rate3583Arizona State2025OA +0.006 / +0.099similar: offensive EPA, turnover rate, passing offense3454Minnesota2018OA +0.042 / +0.079similar: TD drive rate, turnover rate, rushing offense3445Louisiana Tech2018OA -0.004 / +0.003similar: defensive success rate, rushing offense, offensive success rate342

2025 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Michigan17-34L+34.5W49O
2vs Idaho State32-22W+15.5W53.5U
3@ UCLA35-10W----
5vs New Mexico State38-20W+1.5L58.5O
6@ San José State28-35L----
7@ Boise State25-41L+15.5L58.5O
8vs Nevada24-22W-13.5L49.5U
9vs Utah State33-14W-9.3W54.5U
10@ UNLV40-35W-1.5W62O
12vs Colorado State20-17W-17.5L36.5O
13@ Air Force20-3W-3.5W53.5U
14vs San Diego State23-17W----
18@ Minnesota17-20L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-6
53.8%
O/U Record
7-6
53.8%
Straight Up
9-4
69.2%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS4-3
Favorite ATS4-3
Underdog ATS3-3
Last 5 ATS
WLWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off41thRush Off67thRed Zone Off51th3rd Down Off79thPass Def74thRush Def51thRed Zone Def4th3rd Down Def42th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.01156th-0.04260th
Red Zone+0.00151th+0.2574th
Third Down+0.26479th+0.10342th
No Garbage Time+0.00452th-0.04259th
First Half+0.01553th-0.02350th
Second Half+0.00858th-0.06170th
Early Downs-0.03736th-0.06370th
Passing Downs-0.04541th-0.09974th
Standard Downs+0.04167th-0.01051th
Goal to Go+0.20677th+0.19324th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 42.8%Rush 57.2%
Havoc/Game
13.8
Havoc Rate
20.3%
TO Margin
-0.5
Explosive/G
13.2
Yards/Game
356.8
Pts/Drive
2.27
3rd Down%
39.4%
3&Out%
17.7%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 13 games — New Mexico vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatNew MexicoOpponents
Scoring
Points352290
Points / Game27.122.3
First Downs
Total252248
Rushing108102
Passing115129
Penalty2917
Rushing
Attempts468434
Yards1,9771,466
Yards / Carry4.23.4
Yards / Game152.1112.8
Touchdowns2214
Passing
Attempts350412
Completions227282
Completion %64.9%68.4%
Yards2,6622,979
Yards / Attempt7.67.2
Touchdowns1719
Interceptions109
Passer Rating139.06140.03
Total Offense
Plays818846
Yards4,6394,445
Yards / Play5.75.3
Yards / Game356.8341.9
Punt Returns
Returns1215
Yards5559
Average4.63.9
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns2318
Yards608339
Average26.418.8
Touchdowns20
Punting
Punts4152
Yards1,8632,275
Average45.443.8
Interception Returns
Returns910
Yards9944
Touchdowns01
Fumbles
Fumbles1721
Lost138
Penalties
Penalties7695
Yards634829
Yards / Game48.863.8
Time of Possession
Per Game30:0529:55
Third Downs
Attempts165180
Conversions6572
Conversion %39.4%40.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3233
Conversions2117
Conversion %65.6%51.5%
Red Zone
Trips4637
Scores (TD + FG)3732
Score %80.4%86.5%
Touchdowns2524
TD %54.3%64.9%
Field Goals
Attempts1918
Made1816
Pct94.7%88.9%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3632
Made3632
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts62
Made40
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →