Fourth Down Data
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ISU

Iowa State

CyclonesBalanced
Big 12 Conference8-5#41 (+3.67)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

69· COverall
Offense
43· CRating
56· CPer play
50· CConsistency
70· BBig plays
Defense
77· BRating
60· CPer play
55· CConsistency
Situational
76· BRed-zone O
64· CRed-zone D
42· C3rd down O
36· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.002
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.065
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.023
Defensive EPA/play
-0.044
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.4%
Def Success Rate
44.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.067
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.035
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.16

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.74
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.16
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.53
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.04
own return game
Return Defense
+0.01
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#41
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#56
model 15 spots higher
2 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Iowa State ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
45th
Opp-adjusted defense
74th
Offensive EPA/play
56th
Defensive EPA/play
61th
Offensive success rate
47th
Explosiveness
71th
Defensive havoc
62th
Points per drive
46th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1New Mexico2025OA -0.009 / +0.001similar: defensive EPA, run defense, offensive success rate3792West Virginia2021OA -0.019 / +0.069similar: passing offense, run defense, pass defense3483Western Kentucky2019OA -0.013 / +0.057similar: TD drive rate, takeaway rate, turnover rate3474Middle Tennessee2018OA +0.025 / +0.049similar: passing offense, defensive success rate, TD drive rate3455Minnesota2018OA +0.042 / +0.079similar: defensive EPA, TD drive rate, defensive success rate343

2018 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
2@ Iowa3-13L+3.5L47U
3vs Oklahoma27-37L+18.5W54.5O
4vs Akron26-13W-19.5L47U
5@ TCU14-17L+11.0W44.5U
6@ Oklahoma State48-42W+10.0W55O
7vs West Virginia30-14W+4.0W54.5U
9vs Texas Tech40-31W-5.5W57.5O
10@ Kansas27-3W-18.5W46U
11vs Baylor28-14W-17.0L51U
12@ Texas10-24L+2.5L49.5U
13vs Kansas State42-38W-10.0L41O
14vs Drake27-24W-41.0L--
18@ Washington State26-28L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-6
53.8%
O/U Record
4-8
33.3%
Straight Up
8-5
61.5%
Home ATS3-4
Away ATS4-2
Favorite ATS2-4
Underdog ATS5-2
Last 5 ATS
WLLLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off57thRush Off55thRed Zone Off77th3rd Down Off42thPass Def41thRush Def86thRed Zone Def65th3rd Down Def36th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.01655th-0.05070th
Red Zone+0.13177th-0.07765th
Third Down+0.02442th+0.07736th
No Garbage Time+0.02558th-0.04864th
First Half+0.07070th+0.01937th
Second Half-0.03833th-0.12090th
Early Downs+0.00055th-0.12993th
Passing Downs+0.02257th+0.06141th
Standard Downs+0.01355th-0.11686th
Goal to Go+0.14365th+0.22826th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 43.8%Rush 56.2%
Havoc/Game
14.4
Havoc Rate
20.1%
TO Margin
-0.2
Explosive/G
15.4
Yards/Game
371.0
Pts/Drive
2.16
3rd Down%
39.6%
3&Out%
15.1%

Team Statistics

2018 season totals across 13 games — Iowa State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatIowa StateOpponents
Scoring
Points348298
Points / Game26.822.9
First Downs
Total251246
Rushing10397
Passing123138
Penalty2511
Rushing
Attempts466458
Yards1,6911,495
Yards / Carry3.63.3
Yards / Game130.1115.0
Touchdowns2010
Passing
Attempts363440
Completions237276
Completion %65.3%62.7%
Yards3,1323,044
Yards / Attempt8.66.9
Touchdowns2023
Interceptions98
Passer Rating150.99134.45
Total Offense
Plays829898
Yards4,8234,539
Yards / Play5.85.1
Yards / Game371.0349.2
Punt Returns
Returns1412
Yards17664
Average12.65.3
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns3341
Yards726769
Average22.018.8
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5666
Yards2,2052,697
Average39.440.9
Interception Returns
Returns89
Yards109103
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles1317
Lost108
Penalties
Penalties6281
Yards517786
Yards / Game39.860.5
Time of Possession
Per Game28:5431:03
Third Downs
Attempts169189
Conversions6779
Conversion %39.6%41.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1818
Conversions109
Conversion %55.6%50.0%
Red Zone
Trips4546
Scores (TD + FG)4135
Score %91.1%76.1%
Touchdowns2826
TD %62.2%56.5%
Field Goals
Attempts2318
Made1613
Pct69.6%72.2%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3837
Made3637
Pct94.7%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts40
Made30
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →