Fourth Down Data
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WVU

West Virginia

MountaineersBalanced
Big 12 Conference6-7#74 (-0.27)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

45· COverall
Offense
39· DRating
48· CPer play
64· CConsistency
48· CBig plays
Defense
68· CRating
63· CPer play
45· CConsistency
Situational
73· BRed-zone O
95· ARed-zone D
59· C3rd down O
85· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.019
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.069
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.005
Defensive EPA/play
-0.049
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.6%
Def Success Rate
45.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
20.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.054
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.037
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.05

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.00
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.76
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.19
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.07
own return game
Return Defense
-0.36
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#74
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#83
model 9 higher
Recruiting Rank
#44
recruiting 30 spots higher
7 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where West Virginia ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
42th
Opp-adjusted defense
79th
Offensive EPA/play
49th
Defensive EPA/play
64th
Offensive success rate
63th
Explosiveness
48th
Defensive havoc
44th
Points per drive
44th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Troy2020OA -0.011 / +0.020similar: defensive EPA, defensive success rate, offensive EPA3602Western Kentucky2019OA -0.013 / +0.057similar: turnover rate, rushing offense, offensive success rate3583Iowa State2018OA +0.002 / +0.065similar: passing offense, run defense, pass defense3484Middle Tennessee2018OA +0.025 / +0.049similar: turnover rate, offensive EPA, defensive success rate3435BYU2019OA +0.026 / -0.004similar: offensive EPA, turnover rate, pass defense328

2021 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Maryland24-30L-3.0L57U
2vs LIU66-0W----
3vs Virginia Tech27-21W-2.5W50.5U
4@ Oklahoma13-16L+19.5W--
5vs Texas Tech20-23L-7.5L55.75U
6@ Baylor20-45L+2.5L44.5O
8@ TCU29-17W+4.5W57U
9vs Iowa State38-31W+7.0W48O
10vs Oklahoma State3-24L+3.0L49U
11@ Kansas State17-34L+6.5L47O
12vs Texas31-23W-2.5W56.5U
13@ Kansas34-28W-15.5L55.5O
18@ Minnesota6-18L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
4-7
36.4%
Straight Up
6-7
46.2%
Home ATS3-2
Away ATS2-5
Favorite ATS2-3
Underdog ATS3-4
Last 5 ATS
LLWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off64thRush Off44thRed Zone Off73th3rd Down Off59thPass Def51thRush Def80thRed Zone Def95th3rd Down Def86th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.00950th-0.06273th
Red Zone+0.08973th-0.34595th
Third Down+0.13459th-0.13986th
No Garbage Time+0.01553th-0.03457th
First Half+0.06673th-0.00952th
Second Half-0.05530th-0.11586th
Early Downs-0.05831th-0.02456th
Passing Downs+0.04264th-0.00951th
Standard Downs-0.00844th-0.09080th
Goal to Go+0.03061th-0.66499th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 49.7%Rush 50.3%
Havoc/Game
12.0
Havoc Rate
18.2%
TO Margin
-0.5
Explosive/G
15.4
Yards/Game
371.5
Pts/Drive
2.05
3rd Down%
39.8%
3&Out%
18.0%

Team Statistics

2021 season totals across 13 games — West Virginia vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatWest VirginiaOpponents
Scoring
Points328310
Points / Game25.223.8
First Downs
Total278225
Rushing10897
Passing148113
Penalty2215
Rushing
Attempts452453
Yards1,6071,804
Yards / Carry3.64.0
Yards / Game123.6138.8
Touchdowns1915
Passing
Attempts447368
Completions290236
Completion %64.9%64.1%
Yards3,2232,750
Yards / Attempt7.27.5
Touchdowns1917
Interceptions129
Passer Rating134.10137.26
Total Offense
Plays899821
Yards4,8304,554
Yards / Play5.45.5
Yards / Game371.5350.3
Punt Returns
Returns1913
Yards5980
Average3.16.2
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns2741
Yards667891
Average24.721.7
Touchdowns11
Punting
Punts5359
Yards2,2612,409
Average42.740.8
Interception Returns
Returns912
Yards10473
Touchdowns02
Fumbles
Fumbles2014
Lost84
Penalties
Penalties6757
Yards561470
Yards / Game43.236.2
Time of Possession
Per Game31:1928:37
Third Downs
Attempts186171
Conversions7460
Conversion %39.8%35.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2825
Conversions1910
Conversion %67.9%40.0%
Red Zone
Trips5050
Scores (TD + FG)4535
Score %90.0%70.0%
Touchdowns3321
TD %66.0%42.0%
Field Goals
Attempts2324
Made1919
Pct82.6%79.2%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3733
Made3733
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts23
Made02
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →