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WIS
Wisconsin
BadgersRun-HeavyBig Ten Conference10-4#15 (+17.88)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
89· BOverall
Offense
85· BRating
67· CPer play
87· BConsistency
47· CBig plays
Defense
89· BRating
92· A-Per play
83· BConsistency
Situational
85· BRed-zone O
71· BRed-zone D
64· C3rd down O
92· A-3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.091
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.160
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.053
Defensive EPA/play
-0.142
lower = better
Off Success Rate
51.4%
Def Success Rate
41.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.195
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.61
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+0.86
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.29
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.35
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.25
own return game
Return Defense
-0.03
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#15
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#11
AP 4 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#33
model 18 spots higher
10 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Wisconsin ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense81th
Opp-adjusted defense96th
Offensive EPA/play68th
Defensive EPA/play93th
Offensive success rate92th
Explosiveness48th
Defensive havoc99th
Points per drive79th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Iowa State2020OA +0.039 / +0.038similar: offensive success rate, passing offense, pass defense4362App State2021OA +0.024 / +0.076similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, passing offense3983Penn State2022OA +0.105 / +0.152similar: havoc rate, defensive EPA, offensive EPA3514Clemson2020OA +0.058 / +0.078similar: havoc rate, pass defense, run defense3485Baylor2021OA -0.042 / +0.084similar: havoc rate, TD drive rate, defensive success rate347
2019 Schedule & Results
14 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ South Florida | 49-0 | W | -3.0 | L | 53 | O |
| 2 | vs Central Michigan | 61-0 | W | -34.0 | W | 54.5 | O |
| 4 | vs Michigan | 35-14 | W | -3.0 | W | 46 | O |
| 5 | vs Northwestern | 24-15 | W | -23.0 | L | 46 | U |
| 6 | vs Kent State | 48-0 | W | -35.0 | W | 58.5 | U |
| 7 | vs Michigan State | 38-0 | W | -8.0 | W | 39 | U |
| 8 | @ Illinois | 23-24 | L | -28.5 | L | 52 | U |
| 9 | @ Ohio State | 7-38 | L | +14.5 | L | 47 | U |
| 11 | vs Iowa | 24-22 | W | -8.0 | L | 37.5 | O |
| 12 | @ Nebraska | 37-21 | W | -15.0 | W | 50.5 | O |
| 13 | vs Purdue | 45-24 | W | -25.0 | L | 49.5 | O |
| 14 | @ Minnesota | 38-17 | W | -3.0 | W | 44.5 | O |
| 15 | vs Ohio State | 21-34 | L | +17.0 | W | 58 | U |
| 19 | vs Oregon | 27-28 | L | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
7-6
53.8%
O/U Record
7-6
53.8%
Straight Up
9-4
69.2%
Home ATS5-4
Away ATS2-2
Favorite ATS6-5
Underdog ATS1-1
Last 5 ATS
LWLWW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.046 | 64th | -0.131 | 93th |
| Red Zone | +0.191 | 86th | -0.126 | 72th |
| Third Down | +0.105 | 65th | -0.215 | 93th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.060 | 69th | -0.143 | 93th |
| First Half | +0.112 | 84th | -0.230 | 98th |
| Second Half | -0.033 | 37th | -0.048 | 68th |
| Early Downs | +0.051 | 72th | -0.032 | 66th |
| Passing Downs | -0.185 | 8th | -0.204 | 93th |
| Standard Downs | +0.142 | 94th | -0.083 | 79th |
| Goal to Go | +0.107 | 69th | -0.299 | 83th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 36.4%Rush 63.6%
Havoc/Game
16.8
Havoc Rate
27.4%
TO Margin
0.0
Explosive/G
13.6
Yards/Game
433.2
Pts/Drive
2.61
3rd Down%
48.1%
3&Out%
15.8%
Team Statistics
2019 season totals across 14 games — Wisconsin vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Wisconsin | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 477 | 237 |
| Points / Game | 34.1 | 16.9 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 320 | 227 |
| Rushing | 174 | 78 |
| Passing | 134 | 121 |
| Penalty | 12 | 28 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 612 | 424 |
| Yards | 3,263 | 1,397 |
| Yards / Carry | 5.3 | 3.3 |
| Yards / Game | 233.1 | 99.8 |
| Touchdowns | 38 | 11 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 351 | 415 |
| Completions | 246 | 214 |
| Completion % | 70.1% | 51.6% |
| Yards | 2,802 | 2,623 |
| Yards / Attempt | 8.0 | 6.3 |
| Touchdowns | 18 | 18 |
| Interceptions | 5 | 12 |
| Passer Rating | 151.22 | 113.19 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 963 | 839 |
| Yards | 6,065 | 4,020 |
| Yards / Play | 6.3 | 4.8 |
| Yards / Game | 433.2 | 287.1 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 32 | 15 |
| Yards | 259 | 104 |
| Average | 8.1 | 6.9 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 27 | 16 |
| Yards | 766 | 272 |
| Average | 28.4 | 17.0 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 48 | 79 |
| Yards | 1,903 | 3,360 |
| Average | 39.6 | 42.5 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 12 | 5 |
| Yards | 200 | 34 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 26 | 21 |
| Lost | 17 | 10 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 69 | 52 |
| Yards | 636 | 382 |
| Yards / Game | 45.4 | 27.3 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 35:38 | 24:22 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 189 | 176 |
| Conversions | 91 | 48 |
| Conversion % | 48.1% | 27.3% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 23 | 27 |
| Conversions | 18 | 12 |
| Conversion % | 78.3% | 44.4% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 54 | 36 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 47 | 26 |
| Score % | 87.0% | 72.2% |
| Touchdowns | 36 | 20 |
| TD % | 66.7% | 55.6% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 21 | 14 |
| Made | 14 | 10 |
| Pct | 66.7% | 71.4% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 62 | 25 |
| Made | 61 | 25 |
| Pct | 98.4% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 0 | 5 |
| Made | 0 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.