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LOU
Louisville
CardinalsRun-HeavyAtlantic Coast Conference8-5#29 (+4.80)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
78· BOverall
Offense
55· CRating
42· CPer play
43· CConsistency
45· CBig plays
Defense
89· BRating
92· A-Per play
68· CConsistency
Situational
8· FRed-zone O
78· BRed-zone D
55· C3rd down O
92· A-3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.010
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.144
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.048
Defensive EPA/play
-0.169
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.1%
Def Success Rate
43.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.121
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.043
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.09
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+0.62
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.77
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.27
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.17
own return game
Return Defense
-0.06
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#29
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#60
model 31 higher
Recruiting Rank
#46
model 17 spots higher
7 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Louisville ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense45th
Opp-adjusted defense95th
Offensive EPA/play42th
Defensive EPA/play93th
Offensive success rate42th
Explosiveness46th
Defensive havoc96th
Points per drive47th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Tulsa2020OA -0.015 / +0.068similar: run defense, defensive EPA, offensive EPA4022Southern Miss2022OA -0.126 / +0.054similar: havoc rate, turnover rate, passing offense3833Marshall2018OA -0.082 / +0.061similar: offensive success rate, run defense, havoc rate3814Cincinnati2019OA +0.024 / +0.099similar: takeaway rate, defensive success rate, offensive EPA3715Utah2020OA -0.020 / +0.040similar: takeaway rate, run defense, pass defense360
2022 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Syracuse | 7-31 | L | +6.0 | W | 61.5 | U |
| 2 | @ UCF | 20-14 | W | +2.5 | L | 57 | O |
| 3 | vs Florida State | 31-35 | L | - | - | - | - |
| 4 | vs South Florida | 41-3 | W | -14.5 | W | 64.5 | U |
| 5 | @ Boston College | 33-34 | L | -15.5 | L | 51 | O |
| 6 | @ Virginia | 34-17 | W | -1.0 | W | 48.5 | O |
| 8 | vs Pittsburgh | 24-10 | W | -2.5 | W | 55 | U |
| 9 | vs Wake Forest | 48-21 | W | +3.5 | W | 64 | O |
| 10 | vs James Madison | 34-10 | W | -7.5 | W | 52.5 | U |
| 11 | @ Clemson | 16-31 | L | +7.0 | L | 51.5 | U |
| 12 | vs NC State | 25-10 | W | -4.0 | W | 45 | U |
| 13 | @ Kentucky | 13-26 | L | +3.0 | L | 43.5 | U |
| 16 | vs Cincinnati | 24-7 | W | -2.0 | W | 39.5 | U |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
8-5
61.5%
O/U Record
4-9
30.8%
Straight Up
8-5
61.5%
Home ATS6-1
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS6-2
Underdog ATS2-3
Last 5 ATS
WLWLW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.056 | 38th | -0.173 | 96th |
| Red Zone | -0.290 | 8th | -0.194 | 79th |
| Third Down | +0.098 | 56th | -0.244 | 93th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.050 | 41th | -0.180 | 95th |
| First Half | -0.017 | 44th | -0.079 | 73th |
| Second Half | -0.098 | 24th | -0.271 | 99th |
| Early Downs | -0.070 | 27th | -0.054 | 64th |
| Passing Downs | +0.003 | 52th | -0.313 | 97th |
| Standard Downs | -0.091 | 24th | -0.094 | 76th |
| Goal to Go | -0.318 | 14th | +0.026 | 43th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 41.5%Rush 58.5%
Havoc/Game
16.8
Havoc Rate
24.9%
TO Margin
+0.5
Explosive/G
14.8
Yards/Game
406.5
Pts/Drive
2.09
3rd Down%
37.9%
3&Out%
20.7%
Team Statistics
2022 season totals across 13 games — Louisville vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Louisville | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 350 | 249 |
| Points / Game | 26.9 | 19.2 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 264 | 239 |
| Rushing | 116 | 111 |
| Passing | 125 | 105 |
| Penalty | 23 | 23 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 519 | 486 |
| Yards | 2,613 | 1,742 |
| Yards / Carry | 5.0 | 3.6 |
| Yards / Game | 201.0 | 134.0 |
| Touchdowns | 25 | 13 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 368 | 362 |
| Completions | 218 | 211 |
| Completion % | 59.2% | 58.3% |
| Yards | 2,672 | 2,561 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.3 | 7.1 |
| Touchdowns | 13 | 17 |
| Interceptions | 12 | 15 |
| Passer Rating | 125.37 | 124.92 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 887 | 848 |
| Yards | 5,285 | 4,303 |
| Yards / Play | 6.0 | 5.1 |
| Yards / Game | 406.5 | 331.0 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 28 | 23 |
| Yards | 141 | 127 |
| Average | 5.0 | 5.5 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 15 | 27 |
| Yards | 371 | 490 |
| Average | 24.7 | 18.1 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 53 | 65 |
| Yards | 2,335 | 2,714 |
| Average | 44.1 | 41.8 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 15 | 12 |
| Yards | 252 | 176 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 16 | 22 |
| Lost | 11 | 15 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 89 | 103 |
| Yards | 853 | 754 |
| Yards / Game | 65.6 | 58.0 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 30:04 | 29:56 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 177 | 171 |
| Conversions | 67 | 57 |
| Conversion % | 37.9% | 33.3% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 30 | 21 |
| Conversions | 12 | 4 |
| Conversion % | 40.0% | 19.0% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 47 | 43 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 39 | 32 |
| Score % | 83.0% | 74.4% |
| Touchdowns | 23 | 21 |
| TD % | 48.9% | 48.8% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 22 | 17 |
| Made | 20 | 13 |
| Pct | 90.9% | 76.5% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 39 | 30 |
| Made | 38 | 30 |
| Pct | 97.4% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 2 | 0 |
| Made | 0 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.