Fourth Down Data
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USM

Southern Miss

Golden EaglesBalanced
Sun Belt Conference7-6#85 (-1.73)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

37· DOverall
Offense
21· DRating
16· DPer play
21· DConsistency
48· CBig plays
Defense
64· CRating
83· BPer play
84· BConsistency
Situational
7· FRed-zone O
48· CRed-zone D
41· C3rd down O
59· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.126
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.054
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.137
Defensive EPA/play
-0.114
lower = better
Off Success Rate
42.1%
Def Success Rate
42.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.023
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.110
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.68

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.79
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.31
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.38
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.04
own return game
Return Defense
+0.14
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#85
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#82
market 3 higher
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 10 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Southern Miss ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
13th
Opp-adjusted defense
71th
Offensive EPA/play
16th
Defensive EPA/play
84th
Offensive success rate
18th
Explosiveness
48th
Defensive havoc
94th
Points per drive
24th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1UAB2019OA -0.120 / +0.036similar: turnover rate, havoc rate, run defense4182Marshall2018OA -0.082 / +0.061similar: pass defense, havoc rate, defensive EPA4063Louisville2022OA -0.010 / +0.144similar: havoc rate, turnover rate, passing offense3834Michigan State2019OA -0.016 / +0.106similar: havoc rate, passing offense, offensive EPA3715Old Dominion2026OA -0.079 / +0.013similar: passing offense, rushing offense, havoc rate362

2022 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Liberty27-29L+3.5W49.5O
2@ Miami7-30L+26.5W51U
3vs Northwestern State64-10W-30.5W48.5O
4@ Tulane27-24W+13.0W48.25O
6@ Troy10-27L+6.5L44U
7vs Arkansas State20-19W-4.5L55U
8@ Texas State20-14W+2.5W43O
9vs Louisiana39-24W----
10vs Georgia State14-42L-2.0L48.5O
11@ Coastal Carolina23-26L+8.3W50.5U
12vs South Alabama20-27L+7.5W45.5O
13@ UL Monroe20-10W-3.5W51U
16vs Rice38-24W-6.5W45.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
10-3
76.9%
O/U Record
7-6
53.8%
Straight Up
7-6
53.8%
Home ATS5-2
Away ATS5-1
Favorite ATS4-2
Underdog ATS6-1
Last 5 ATS
LWWWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off65thRush Off7thRed Zone Off7th3rd Down Off41thPass Def79thRush Def74thRed Zone Def48th3rd Down Def60th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.10620th-0.11084th
Red Zone-0.3227th-0.02448th
Third Down+0.03041th+0.01660th
No Garbage Time-0.13018th-0.11885th
First Half-0.12720th-0.15488th
Second Half-0.08430th-0.06770th
Early Downs-0.2184th-0.07173th
Passing Downs+0.07165th-0.14079th
Standard Downs-0.2047th-0.09274th
Goal to Go-0.8810th+0.18719th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 42.1%Rush 57.9%
Havoc/Game
17.0
Havoc Rate
23.8%
TO Margin
-0.2
Explosive/G
13.6
Yards/Game
348.7
Pts/Drive
1.68
3rd Down%
34.1%
3&Out%
19.2%

Team Statistics

2022 season totals across 13 games — Southern Miss vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatSouthern MissOpponents
Scoring
Points329306
Points / Game25.323.5
First Downs
Total233250
Rushing100102
Passing109126
Penalty2422
Rushing
Attempts478483
Yards1,8331,796
Yards / Carry3.83.7
Yards / Game141.0138.2
Touchdowns1515
Passing
Attempts348410
Completions192244
Completion %55.2%59.5%
Yards2,7003,034
Yards / Attempt7.87.4
Touchdowns2021
Interceptions1417
Passer Rating131.26130.28
Total Offense
Plays826893
Yards4,5334,830
Yards / Play5.55.4
Yards / Game348.7371.5
Punt Returns
Returns2610
Yards29912
Average11.51.2
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2425
Yards474560
Average19.822.4
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts7167
Yards2,9632,755
Average41.741.1
Interception Returns
Returns1714
Yards25699
Touchdowns30
Fumbles
Fumbles1611
Lost115
Penalties
Penalties8586
Yards753733
Yards / Game57.956.4
Time of Possession
Per Game28:4331:16
Third Downs
Attempts179196
Conversions6171
Conversion %34.1%36.2%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2027
Conversions127
Conversion %60.0%25.9%
Red Zone
Trips3838
Scores (TD + FG)3032
Score %78.9%84.2%
Touchdowns1521
TD %39.5%55.3%
Field Goals
Attempts1921
Made1817
Pct94.7%81.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3835
Made3733
Pct97.4%94.3%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts23
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →