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NMSU
New Mexico State
AggiesPass-HeavyConference USA7-6#101 (-9.37)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
25· DOverall
Offense
28· DRating
37· DPer play
39· DConsistency
51· CBig plays
Defense
33· DRating
66· CPer play
56· CConsistency
Situational
56· CRed-zone O
35· DRed-zone D
89· B3rd down O
88· B3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.037
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.019
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.049
Defensive EPA/play
-0.073
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.5%
Def Success Rate
44.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
20.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.023
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.155
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.95
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-1.15
expected pts/game
Kicking
-1.08
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.08
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.09
own return game
Return Defense
-0.24
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#101
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 26 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where New Mexico State ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense33th
Opp-adjusted defense44th
Offensive EPA/play38th
Defensive EPA/play66th
Offensive success rate40th
Explosiveness51th
Defensive havoc82th
Points per drive38th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Louisiana Tech2018OA -0.004 / +0.003similar: takeaway rate, offensive success rate, passing offense3902Nevada2018OA -0.075 / +0.074similar: defensive success rate, TD drive rate, turnover rate3853Liberty2022OA -0.042 / +0.014similar: run defense, TD drive rate, turnover rate3334Florida International2025OA -0.074 / -0.025similar: offensive success rate, passing offense, takeaway rate3265New Mexico2025OA -0.009 / +0.001similar: TD drive rate, turnover rate, havoc rate323
2017 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Arizona State | 31-37 | L | +5.5 | W | 63.5 | U |
| 2 | @ New Mexico | 30-28 | W | +7.5 | W | 68.5 | U |
| 3 | vs Troy | 24-27 | L | +9.5 | W | 60 | U |
| 4 | vs UTEP | 41-14 | W | -17.0 | W | 59 | U |
| 5 | @ Arkansas | 24-42 | L | +18.0 | P | 61 | O |
| 6 | @ App State | 31-45 | L | +13.5 | L | 56 | O |
| 7 | @ Georgia Southern | 35-27 | W | -5.0 | W | 58.5 | O |
| 9 | vs Arkansas State | 21-37 | L | +3.5 | L | 71.5 | U |
| 10 | @ Texas State | 45-35 | W | -9.0 | W | 57 | O |
| 12 | @ Louisiana | 34-47 | L | -3.5 | L | 64.5 | O |
| 13 | vs Idaho | 17-10 | W | -10.0 | L | 55.5 | U |
| 14 | vs South Alabama | 22-17 | W | -12.0 | L | 55 | U |
| 18 | @ Utah State | 26-20 | W | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
6-5-1
54.5%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
7-5
58.3%
Home ATS2-3
Away ATS4-2
Favorite ATS3-3
Underdog ATS3-2
Last 5 ATS
LWLLL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.044 | 39th | -0.087 | 70th |
| Red Zone | +0.027 | 56th | +0.071 | 35th |
| Third Down | +0.257 | 90th | -0.308 | 89th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.054 | 38th | -0.085 | 69th |
| First Half | -0.048 | 41th | -0.100 | 68th |
| Second Half | -0.039 | 44th | -0.072 | 67th |
| Early Downs | -0.115 | 15th | -0.119 | 83th |
| Passing Downs | +0.061 | 68th | -0.053 | 60th |
| Standard Downs | -0.108 | 20th | -0.106 | 74th |
| Goal to Go | +0.340 | 88th | -0.043 | 50th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 64.2%Rush 35.8%
Havoc/Game
16.8
Havoc Rate
21.8%
TO Margin
-0.2
Explosive/G
17.2
Yards/Game
446.9
Pts/Drive
1.95
3rd Down%
43.8%
3&Out%
28.1%
Team Statistics
2017 season totals across 13 games — New Mexico State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | New Mexico State | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 381 | 386 |
| Points / Game | 29.3 | 29.7 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 290 | 285 |
| Rushing | 82 | 114 |
| Passing | 191 | 145 |
| Penalty | 17 | 26 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 357 | 520 |
| Yards | 1,388 | 2,164 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.9 | 4.2 |
| Yards / Game | 106.8 | 166.5 |
| Touchdowns | 18 | 25 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 641 | 452 |
| Completions | 397 | 264 |
| Completion % | 61.9% | 58.4% |
| Yards | 4,422 | 3,047 |
| Yards / Attempt | 6.9 | 6.7 |
| Touchdowns | 29 | 21 |
| Interceptions | 22 | 16 |
| Passer Rating | 127.95 | 123.28 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 998 | 972 |
| Yards | 5,810 | 5,211 |
| Yards / Play | 5.8 | 5.4 |
| Yards / Game | 446.9 | 400.8 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 12 | 32 |
| Yards | 77 | 200 |
| Average | 6.4 | 6.3 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 29 | 38 |
| Yards | 677 | 1,019 |
| Average | 23.3 | 26.8 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 2 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 81 | 76 |
| Yards | 3,316 | 3,240 |
| Average | 40.9 | 42.6 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 16 | 22 |
| Yards | 82 | 339 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 13 | 19 |
| Lost | 7 | 11 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 89 | 89 |
| Yards | 729 | 772 |
| Yards / Game | 56.1 | 59.4 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 28:16 | 31:44 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 210 | 186 |
| Conversions | 92 | 55 |
| Conversion % | 43.8% | 29.6% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 13 | 19 |
| Conversions | 7 | 11 |
| Conversion % | 53.8% | 57.9% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 50 | 46 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 41 | 37 |
| Score % | 82.0% | 80.4% |
| Touchdowns | 30 | 27 |
| TD % | 60.0% | 58.7% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 17 | 23 |
| Made | 13 | 13 |
| Pct | 76.5% | 56.5% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 43 | 47 |
| Made | 40 | 43 |
| Pct | 93.0% | 91.5% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 5 | 3 |
| Made | 1 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.