Fourth Down Data
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ODU

Old Dominion

MonarchsRun-Heavy
Sun Belt Conference10-3#16 (+13.98)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

88· BOverall
Offense
73· BRating
67· CPer play
73· BConsistency
87· BBig plays
Defense
92· A-Rating
96· APer play
83· BConsistency
Situational
7· FRed-zone O
88· BRed-zone D
35· D3rd down O
81· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.042
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.162
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.040
Defensive EPA/play
-0.199
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.4%
Def Success Rate
41.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
20.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.238
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.001
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.44

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.39
expected pts/game
Kicking
-1.05
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.67
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.08
own return game
Return Defense
+0.07
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#16
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
model 10 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#44
model 28 higher
Recruiting Rank
#79
model 63 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Old Dominion ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
68th
Opp-adjusted defense
96th
Offensive EPA/play
67th
Defensive EPA/play
97th
Offensive success rate
72th
Explosiveness
87th
Defensive havoc
93th
Points per drive
66th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Texas2024OA +0.011 / +0.096similar: takeaway rate, defensive success rate, run defense3782UCLA2023OA +0.005 / +0.188similar: defensive EPA, pass defense, havoc rate3753Wisconsin2017OA +0.122 / +0.234similar: takeaway rate, defensive EPA, rushing offense3574South Carolina2024OA -0.002 / +0.053similar: run defense, takeaway rate, turnover rate3565App State2021OA +0.024 / +0.076similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, turnover rate345

2025 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Indiana14-27L+24.0W53U
2vs North Carolina Central54-6W-21.5W50.5O
3@ Virginia Tech45-26W+5.5W51O
5vs Liberty21-7W-14.5L53.5U
6vs Coastal Carolina47-7W-18.5W54P
7@ Marshall24-48L+20.5L68.5O
8@ James Madison27-63L+12.5L86.5O
9vs App State24-21W-13.5L61U
10@ UL Monroe31-6W-30.5L44U
12vs Troy33-0W----
13@ Georgia Southern45-10W-10.5W62.5U
14vs Georgia State27-10W-19.5L43.5U
17@ South Florida24-10W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-6
53.8%
O/U Record
4-8-1
33.3%
Straight Up
10-3
76.9%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS4-3
Favorite ATS4-4
Underdog ATS3-2
Last 5 ATS
LWWLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off74thRush Off44thRed Zone Off7th3rd Down Off36thPass Def80thRush Def97thRed Zone Def89th3rd Down Def81th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.01961th-0.15994th
Red Zone-0.2527th-0.22089th
Third Down-0.00636th-0.11181th
No Garbage Time+0.03566th-0.21198th
First Half+0.05068th-0.23196th
Second Half-0.01448th-0.08475th
Early Downs+0.07984th-0.09579th
Passing Downs+0.07974th-0.12380th
Standard Downs-0.00744th-0.17997th
Goal to Go-0.4843th-0.15170th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 37.5%Rush 62.5%
Havoc/Game
15.8
Havoc Rate
22.3%
TO Margin
+0.1
Explosive/G
13.5
Yards/Game
454.7
Pts/Drive
2.44
3rd Down%
41.7%
3&Out%
14.5%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 13 games — Old Dominion vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatOld DominionOpponents
Scoring
Points416241
Points / Game32.018.5
First Downs
Total293230
Rushing14796
Passing120106
Penalty2628
Rushing
Attempts554496
Yards3,0981,821
Yards / Carry5.63.7
Yards / Game238.3140.1
Touchdowns3113
Passing
Attempts332409
Completions191247
Completion %57.5%60.4%
Yards2,8132,489
Yards / Attempt8.56.1
Touchdowns2116
Interceptions1015
Passer Rating143.55117.08
Total Offense
Plays886905
Yards5,9114,310
Yards / Play6.74.8
Yards / Game454.7331.5
Punt Returns
Returns2513
Yards305130
Average12.210.0
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns1049
Yards171947
Average17.119.3
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts4970
Yards1,9263,024
Average39.343.2
Interception Returns
Returns1510
Yards110112
Touchdowns01
Fumbles
Fumbles2818
Lost1410
Penalties
Penalties7896
Yards705859
Yards / Game54.266.1
Time of Possession
Per Game28:2331:26
Third Downs
Attempts175192
Conversions7365
Conversion %41.7%33.9%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1629
Conversions58
Conversion %31.3%27.6%
Red Zone
Trips6138
Scores (TD + FG)4528
Score %73.8%73.7%
Touchdowns3321
TD %54.1%55.3%
Field Goals
Attempts2516
Made159
Pct60.0%56.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5228
Made5128
Pct98.1%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts13
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →