Fourth Down Data
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JMU

James Madison

DukesRun-Heavy
Sun Belt Conference8-3#24 (+5.39)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

82· BOverall
Offense
67· CRating
54· CPer play
65· CConsistency
58· CBig plays
Defense
87· BRating
96· APer play
98· A+Consistency
Situational
83· BRed-zone O
95· ARed-zone D
46· C3rd down O
82· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.014
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.183
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.007
Defensive EPA/play
-0.248
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.5%
Def Success Rate
37.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
17.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.255
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.087
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.46

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.91
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.03
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.71
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.65
own return game
Return Defense
+0.43
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#24
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
model 2 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#13
market 11 higher
Recruiting Rank
#75
model 51 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where James Madison ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
53th
Opp-adjusted defense
98th
Offensive EPA/play
55th
Defensive EPA/play
97th
Offensive success rate
71th
Explosiveness
59th
Defensive havoc
100th
Points per drive
65th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Wisconsin2017OA +0.122 / +0.234similar: defensive success rate, havoc rate, defensive EPA3972Ohio2024OA +0.018 / +0.035similar: run defense, turnover rate, TD drive rate3713App State2021OA +0.024 / +0.076similar: turnover rate, offensive success rate, defensive success rate3524Texas2024OA +0.011 / +0.096similar: defensive EPA, havoc rate, offensive EPA3445Oklahoma State2021OA +0.044 / +0.195similar: havoc rate, run defense, defensive EPA339

2022 Schedule & Results

11 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Middle Tennessee44-7W-6.0W58U
2vs Norfolk State63-7W-37.5W59.5O
4@ App State32-28W+7.0W58.5O
5vs Texas State40-13W-22.0W51.5O
6@ Arkansas State42-20W-11.0W55.5O
7@ Georgia Southern38-45L-12.0L67O
8vs Marshall12-26L-12.5L51U
10@ Louisville10-34L+7.5L52.5U
11@ Old Dominion37-3W-7.5W46.5U
12vs Georgia State42-40W-9.5L52.5O
13vs Coastal Carolina47-7W-13.5W53.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-4
63.6%
O/U Record
7-4
63.6%
Straight Up
8-3
72.7%
Home ATS4-2
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS6-3
Underdog ATS1-1
Last 5 ATS
LLWLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off79thRush Off33thRed Zone Off84th3rd Down Off47thPass Def81thRush Def99thRed Zone Def96th3rd Down Def83th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.01156th-0.23397th
Red Zone+0.14284th-0.34096th
Third Down+0.05947th-0.10083th
No Garbage Time+0.00656th-0.23597th
First Half-0.00449th-0.30699th
Second Half+0.02865th-0.16193th
Early Downs-0.00753th-0.26299th
Passing Downs+0.12879th-0.15581th
Standard Downs-0.05033th-0.29199th
Goal to Go+0.26286th-0.47695th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 40.6%Rush 59.4%
Havoc/Game
18.0
Havoc Rate
28.4%
TO Margin
+0.2
Explosive/G
15.2
Yards/Game
452.5
Pts/Drive
2.46
3rd Down%
39.7%
3&Out%
22.3%

Team Statistics

2022 season totals across 11 games — James Madison vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatJames MadisonOpponents
Scoring
Points407230
Points / Game37.020.9
First Downs
Total249151
Rushing11744
Passing12294
Penalty1013
Rushing
Attempts479356
Yards2,054882
Yards / Carry4.32.5
Yards / Game186.780.2
Touchdowns248
Passing
Attempts328318
Completions201174
Completion %61.3%54.7%
Yards2,9232,310
Yards / Attempt8.97.3
Touchdowns2717
Interceptions1011
Passer Rating157.20126.46
Total Offense
Plays807674
Yards4,9773,192
Yards / Play6.24.7
Yards / Game452.5290.2
Punt Returns
Returns2015
Yards114132
Average5.78.8
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns2019
Yards368362
Average18.419.1
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5178
Yards2,1613,243
Average42.441.6
Interception Returns
Returns1110
Yards97119
Touchdowns20
Fumbles
Fumbles1814
Lost1011
Penalties
Penalties5657
Yards439504
Yards / Game39.945.8
Time of Possession
Per Game33:4426:16
Third Downs
Attempts151155
Conversions6043
Conversion %39.7%27.7%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2017
Conversions98
Conversion %45.0%47.1%
Red Zone
Trips5623
Scores (TD + FG)4720
Score %83.9%87.0%
Touchdowns3712
TD %66.1%52.2%
Field Goals
Attempts1712
Made1111
Pct64.7%91.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5225
Made5025
Pct96.2%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts12
Made11
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →