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OHIO
Ohio
BobcatsRun-HeavyMid-American Conference11-3#35 (+3.94)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
74· BOverall
Offense
56· CRating
71· BPer play
82· BConsistency
86· BBig plays
Defense
86· BRating
81· BPer play
94· AConsistency
Situational
88· BRed-zone O
81· BRed-zone D
85· B3rd down O
61· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.018
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.035
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.053
Defensive EPA/play
-0.097
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.3%
Def Success Rate
41.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
26.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
20.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.150
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.100
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.37
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.02
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.03
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.20
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.09
own return game
Return Defense
+0.06
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#35
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#50
model 15 higher
Recruiting Rank
#80
model 45 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Ohio ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense69th
Opp-adjusted defense81th
Offensive EPA/play72th
Defensive EPA/play82th
Offensive success rate80th
Explosiveness87th
Defensive havoc87th
Points per drive61th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1James Madison2022OA +0.014 / +0.183similar: run defense, turnover rate, TD drive rate3712Toledo2023OA +0.030 / +0.045similar: havoc rate, defensive EPA, rushing offense3553Clemson2022OA +0.026 / +0.116similar: TD drive rate, passing offense, defensive EPA3294Louisiana2026OA +0.023 / -0.011similar: rushing offense, havoc rate, turnover rate3285UCF2026OA -0.004 / +0.046similar: defensive EPA, rushing offense, defensive success rate325
2024 Schedule & Results
14 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Syracuse | 22-38 | L | +17.5 | W | 46.5 | O |
| 2 | vs South Alabama | 27-20 | W | +1.5 | W | 54 | U |
| 3 | vs Morgan State | 21-6 | W | -24.5 | L | 47 | U |
| 4 | @ Kentucky | 6-41 | L | +20.0 | L | 42 | O |
| 5 | vs Akron | 30-10 | W | -12.5 | W | 47 | U |
| 7 | @ Central Michigan | 27-25 | W | -3.0 | L | 48.5 | O |
| 8 | @ Miami (OH) | 20-30 | L | +3.5 | L | 44.5 | O |
| 9 | vs Buffalo | 47-16 | W | -6.0 | W | 44.5 | O |
| 11 | @ Kent State | 41-0 | W | -10.5 | W | 50.5 | U |
| 12 | vs Eastern Michigan | 35-10 | W | +1.5 | W | 44.5 | U |
| 13 | @ Toledo | 24-7 | W | -15.0 | W | 52.5 | O |
| 14 | vs Ball State | 42-21 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 15 | @ Miami (OH) | 38-3 | W | +2.5 | W | 44 | U |
| 17 | @ Jacksonville State | 30-27 | W | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
9-5
64.3%
O/U Record
7-7
50.0%
Straight Up
11-3
78.6%
Home ATS5-1
Away ATS4-4
Favorite ATS5-3
Underdog ATS4-2
Last 5 ATS
WWWWL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.056 | 70th | -0.102 | 87th |
| Red Zone | +0.242 | 89th | -0.174 | 82th |
| Third Down | +0.293 | 86th | +0.041 | 62th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.051 | 73th | -0.104 | 85th |
| First Half | +0.103 | 82th | -0.073 | 69th |
| Second Half | +0.007 | 43th | -0.134 | 91th |
| Early Downs | -0.032 | 40th | -0.089 | 75th |
| Passing Downs | +0.214 | 94th | -0.158 | 88th |
| Standard Downs | -0.019 | 43th | -0.067 | 73th |
| Goal to Go | +0.202 | 75th | +0.104 | 31th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 37.5%Rush 62.5%
Havoc/Game
14.2
Havoc Rate
22.5%
TO Margin
-0.1
Explosive/G
15.2
Yards/Game
405.6
Pts/Drive
2.37
3rd Down%
47.6%
3&Out%
23.0%
Team Statistics
2024 season totals across 14 games — Ohio vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Ohio | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 410 | 254 |
| Points / Game | 29.3 | 18.1 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 308 | 232 |
| Rushing | 156 | 81 |
| Passing | 122 | 137 |
| Penalty | 30 | 14 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 574 | 430 |
| Yards | 2,984 | 1,268 |
| Yards / Carry | 5.2 | 2.9 |
| Yards / Game | 213.1 | 90.6 |
| Touchdowns | 35 | 14 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 345 | 434 |
| Completions | 217 | 265 |
| Completion % | 62.9% | 61.1% |
| Yards | 2,694 | 2,976 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.8 | 6.9 |
| Touchdowns | 15 | 16 |
| Interceptions | 12 | 11 |
| Passer Rating | 135.88 | 125.76 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 919 | 864 |
| Yards | 5,678 | 4,244 |
| Yards / Play | 6.2 | 4.9 |
| Yards / Game | 405.6 | 303.1 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 18 | 19 |
| Yards | 132 | 147 |
| Average | 7.3 | 7.7 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 26 | 34 |
| Yards | 547 | 672 |
| Average | 21.0 | 19.8 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 60 | 75 |
| Yards | 2,432 | 3,139 |
| Average | 40.5 | 41.9 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 11 | 12 |
| Yards | 53 | 73 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 15 | 27 |
| Lost | 10 | 9 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 78 | 80 |
| Yards | 637 | 733 |
| Yards / Game | 45.5 | 52.4 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 32:42 | 27:16 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 170 | 195 |
| Conversions | 81 | 73 |
| Conversion % | 47.6% | 37.4% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 10 | 23 |
| Conversions | 6 | 11 |
| Conversion % | 60.0% | 47.8% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 53 | 37 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 47 | 30 |
| Score % | 88.7% | 81.1% |
| Touchdowns | 37 | 19 |
| TD % | 69.8% | 51.4% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 16 | 16 |
| Made | 13 | 13 |
| Pct | 81.3% | 81.3% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 48 | 28 |
| Made | 47 | 27 |
| Pct | 97.9% | 96.4% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 5 | 3 |
| Made | 1 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.