Fourth Down Data
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CIN

Cincinnati

BearcatsRun-Heavy
Big 12 Conference11-2#22 (+6.84)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

83· BOverall
Offense
57· CRating
70· BPer play
57· CConsistency
76· BBig plays
Defense
92· A-Rating
96· APer play
97· A+Consistency
Situational
78· BRed-zone O
70· BRed-zone D
84· B3rd down O
85· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.060
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.170
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.051
Defensive EPA/play
-0.205
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.5%
Def Success Rate
39.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
18.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.257
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.49

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.26
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.73
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.32
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.26
own return game
Return Defense
+0.11
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#22
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#24
model 2 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#66
model 44 spots higher
1 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Cincinnati ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
26th
Opp-adjusted defense
95th
Offensive EPA/play
71th
Defensive EPA/play
97th
Offensive success rate
63th
Explosiveness
77th
Defensive havoc
82th
Points per drive
75th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1James Madison2025OA +0.067 / +0.099similar: TD drive rate, turnover rate, offensive EPA4392Toledo2023OA +0.030 / +0.045similar: turnover rate, havoc rate, TD drive rate4073Syracuse2026OA +0.031 / +0.060similar: defensive EPA, defensive success rate, passing offense3684TCU2017OA -0.025 / +0.166similar: defensive success rate, rushing offense, passing offense3505App State2018OA +0.015 / +0.175similar: defensive success rate, defensive EPA, pass defense350

2018 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ UCLA26-17W-5.5L48.5O
2@ Miami (OH)21-0W+1.5W48U
3vs Alabama A&M63-7W----
4vs Ohio34-30W-7.0L56.5O
5@ UConn49-7W-15.5W62.5U
6vs Tulane37-21W-7.0W48O
8@ Temple17-24L+2.5L47U
9@ SMU26-20W-9.5L50U
10vs Navy42-0W-13.0W47U
11vs South Florida35-23W-14.0L53O
12@ UCF13-38L+7.5L60U
13vs East Carolina56-6W-15.5W49.5O
18@ Virginia Tech35-31W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-6
45.5%
O/U Record
5-6
45.5%
Straight Up
10-2
83.3%
Home ATS3-2
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS4-4
Underdog ATS1-2
Last 5 ATS
LWLLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off92thRush Off33thRed Zone Off79th3rd Down Off85thPass Def94thRush Def95thRed Zone Def71th3rd Down Def86th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.04870th-0.18896th
Red Zone+0.13579th-0.11171th
Third Down+0.25685th-0.14486th
No Garbage Time+0.04772th-0.19797th
First Half+0.10485th-0.16792th
Second Half-0.01145th-0.20798th
Early Downs-0.02842th-0.10586th
Passing Downs+0.21592th-0.23794th
Standard Downs-0.03533th-0.15695th
Goal to Go+0.46296th-0.28589th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 38.4%Rush 61.6%
Havoc/Game
14.7
Havoc Rate
22.1%
TO Margin
0.0
Explosive/G
15.4
Yards/Game
458.5
Pts/Drive
2.49
3rd Down%
48.7%
3&Out%
22.2%

Team Statistics

2018 season totals across 13 games — Cincinnati vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatCincinnatiOpponents
Scoring
Points454224
Points / Game34.917.2
First Downs
Total305200
Rushing16164
Passing129102
Penalty1534
Rushing
Attempts600435
Yards3,1131,469
Yards / Carry5.23.4
Yards / Game239.5113.0
Touchdowns389
Passing
Attempts374405
Completions227197
Completion %60.7%48.6%
Yards2,8472,477
Yards / Attempt7.66.1
Touchdowns2219
Interceptions712
Passer Rating140.31109.57
Total Offense
Plays974840
Yards5,9603,946
Yards / Play6.14.7
Yards / Game458.5303.5
Punt Returns
Returns2624
Yards137119
Average5.35.0
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2734
Yards486799
Average18.023.5
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5988
Yards2,7503,585
Average46.640.7
Interception Returns
Returns127
Yards14583
Touchdowns20
Fumbles
Fumbles2313
Lost138
Penalties
Penalties10781
Yards958719
Yards / Game73.755.3
Time of Possession
Per Game33:1026:50
Third Downs
Attempts197194
Conversions9655
Conversion %48.7%28.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2326
Conversions118
Conversion %47.8%30.8%
Red Zone
Trips5033
Scores (TD + FG)4026
Score %80.0%78.8%
Touchdowns3718
TD %74.0%54.5%
Field Goals
Attempts1214
Made510
Pct41.7%71.4%
PAT Kicking
Attempts6127
Made5926
Pct96.7%96.3%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts11
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →