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JMU

James Madison

DukesRun-Heavy
Sun Belt Conference12-2#29 (+10.07)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

78· BOverall
Offense
74· BRating
73· BPer play
70· BConsistency
63· CBig plays
Defense
76· BRating
92· A-Per play
98· A+Consistency
Situational
50· CRed-zone O
35· DRed-zone D
83· B3rd down O
95· A3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.067
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.099
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.063
Defensive EPA/play
-0.149
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.7%
Def Success Rate
35.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.212
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.026
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.68

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.34
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.46
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.10
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.02
own return game
Return Defense
-0.00
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#29
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#19
AP 10 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#12
market 17 higher
Recruiting Rank
#79
model 50 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where James Madison ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
74th
Opp-adjusted defense
83th
Offensive EPA/play
73th
Defensive EPA/play
93th
Offensive success rate
69th
Explosiveness
64th
Defensive havoc
96th
Points per drive
79th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Cincinnati2018OA -0.060 / +0.170similar: TD drive rate, turnover rate, offensive EPA4422Toledo2023OA +0.030 / +0.045similar: offensive success rate, turnover rate, TD drive rate3743Syracuse2026OA +0.031 / +0.060similar: passing offense, defensive EPA, offensive success rate3724LSU2026OA -0.005 / +0.116similar: havoc rate, pass defense, offensive success rate3575App State2021OA +0.024 / +0.076similar: offensive success rate, havoc rate, offensive EPA348

2025 Schedule & Results

14 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Weber State45-10W-26.5W55.5U
2@ Louisville14-28L----
4@ Liberty31-13W-6.5W43.5O
5vs Georgia Southern35-10W-16.5W54.5U
6@ Georgia State14-7W-7.5L28.5U
7vs Louisiana24-14W-18.5L45.5U
8vs Old Dominion63-27W-12.5W86.5O
10@ Texas State52-20W----
11@ Marshall35-23W-13.5L54.5O
12vs App State58-10W-30.5W49.5O
13vs Washington State24-20W-13.5L42.5O
14@ Coastal Carolina59-10W-29.5W57.5O
15vs Troy31-14W----
17@ Oregon34-51L+20.5W45.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
9-5
64.3%
O/U Record
8-6
57.1%
Straight Up
12-2
85.7%
Home ATS4-3
Away ATS5-2
Favorite ATS7-5
Underdog ATS2-0
Last 5 ATS
WLLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off67thRush Off90thRed Zone Off50th3rd Down Off84thPass Def99thRush Def91thRed Zone Def36th3rd Down Def96th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.10084th-0.19398th
Red Zone-0.01350th+0.06136th
Third Down+0.28084th-0.25796th
No Garbage Time+0.06172th-0.16194th
First Half+0.03461th-0.06970th
Second Half+0.16793th-0.348100th
Early Downs+0.06882th-0.17996th
Passing Downs+0.05667th-0.27999th
Standard Downs+0.12290th-0.13091th
Goal to Go+0.29889th-0.60099th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 38.7%Rush 61.3%
Havoc/Game
14.7
Havoc Rate
23.7%
TO Margin
+0.1
Explosive/G
13.7
Yards/Game
452.6
Pts/Drive
2.68
3rd Down%
46.9%
3&Out%
16.8%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 14 games — James Madison vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatJames MadisonOpponents
Scoring
Points519257
Points / Game37.118.4
First Downs
Total316204
Rushing17573
Passing117102
Penalty2429
Rushing
Attempts610426
Yards3,3811,191
Yards / Carry5.52.8
Yards / Game241.585.1
Touchdowns389
Passing
Attempts385421
Completions225214
Completion %58.4%50.8%
Yards2,9562,542
Yards / Attempt7.76.0
Touchdowns2618
Interceptions1014
Passer Rating140.03109.01
Total Offense
Plays995847
Yards6,3373,733
Yards / Play6.44.4
Yards / Game452.6266.6
Punt Returns
Returns239
Yards19781
Average8.69.0
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns2228
Yards478583
Average21.720.8
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts5089
Yards1,9463,616
Average38.940.6
Interception Returns
Returns1410
Yards23447
Touchdowns20
Fumbles
Fumbles99
Lost63
Penalties
Penalties10578
Yards1,015687
Yards / Game72.549.1
Time of Possession
Per Game34:1325:47
Third Downs
Attempts194194
Conversions9157
Conversion %46.9%29.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2126
Conversions1112
Conversion %52.4%46.2%
Red Zone
Trips6435
Scores (TD + FG)5630
Score %87.5%85.7%
Touchdowns4418
TD %68.8%51.4%
Field Goals
Attempts1920
Made1416
Pct73.7%80.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts6525
Made6523
Pct100.0%92.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts35
Made23
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →