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MD
Maryland
TerrapinsBalancedBig Ten Conference8-5#50 (+2.61)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
63· COverall
Offense
62· CRating
59· CPer play
56· CConsistency
54· CBig plays
Defense
67· CRating
51· CPer play
50· CConsistency
Situational
90· A-Red-zone O
65· CRed-zone D
54· C3rd down O
22· D3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.033
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.023
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.022
Defensive EPA/play
-0.027
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.1%
Def Success Rate
45.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.049
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.099
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.30
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.43
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.84
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.77
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.36
own return game
Return Defense
-0.15
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#50
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#55
model 5 higher
Recruiting Rank
#34
recruiting 16 spots higher
13 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Maryland ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense61th
Opp-adjusted defense61th
Offensive EPA/play59th
Defensive EPA/play51th
Offensive success rate52th
Explosiveness54th
Defensive havoc13th
Points per drive59th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Kansas State2019OA -0.010 / +0.045similar: pass defense, rushing offense, TD drive rate3842Arkansas State2019OA +0.036 / -0.048similar: passing offense, rushing offense, offensive success rate3563South Carolina2023OA -0.031 / +0.005similar: turnover rate, takeaway rate, defensive EPA3424Washington2019OA -0.038 / +0.089similar: turnover rate, offensive EPA, defensive success rate3375Arkansas2021OA +0.129 / +0.084similar: run defense, passing offense, offensive success rate336
2022 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Buffalo | 31-10 | W | -24.0 | L | 65 | U |
| 2 | @ Charlotte | 56-21 | W | -26.5 | W | 65.5 | O |
| 3 | vs SMU | 34-27 | W | -2.5 | W | 73 | U |
| 4 | @ Michigan | 27-34 | L | +17.0 | W | 64.5 | U |
| 5 | vs Michigan State | 27-13 | W | -8.5 | W | 60 | U |
| 6 | vs Purdue | 29-31 | L | -3.0 | L | 59.5 | O |
| 7 | @ Indiana | 38-33 | W | -11.0 | L | 61.5 | O |
| 8 | vs Northwestern | 31-24 | W | -13.5 | L | 50.75 | O |
| 10 | @ Wisconsin | 10-23 | L | +5.0 | L | 50.5 | U |
| 11 | @ Penn State | 0-30 | L | +10.0 | L | 59 | U |
| 12 | vs Ohio State | 30-43 | L | +27.5 | W | 64.5 | O |
| 13 | vs Rutgers | 37-0 | W | -14.0 | W | 49 | U |
| 18 | @ NC State | 16-12 | W | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
7-6
53.8%
O/U Record
5-8
38.5%
Straight Up
8-5
61.5%
Home ATS4-3
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS4-4
Underdog ATS3-2
Last 5 ATS
LLWWW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.014 | 57th | -0.039 | 57th |
| Red Zone | +0.195 | 91th | -0.132 | 66th |
| Third Down | +0.093 | 54th | +0.204 | 22th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.021 | 59th | -0.033 | 53th |
| First Half | -0.004 | 50th | +0.032 | 29th |
| Second Half | +0.032 | 66th | -0.118 | 87th |
| Early Downs | +0.059 | 81th | -0.058 | 67th |
| Passing Downs | -0.129 | 19th | -0.042 | 62th |
| Standard Downs | +0.087 | 84th | -0.037 | 59th |
| Goal to Go | +0.046 | 64th | +0.227 | 14th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 48.7%Rush 51.3%
Havoc/Game
11.0
Havoc Rate
14.8%
TO Margin
+0.1
Explosive/G
15.5
Yards/Game
401.2
Pts/Drive
2.30
3rd Down%
41.7%
3&Out%
23.0%
Team Statistics
2022 season totals across 13 games — Maryland vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Maryland | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 366 | 301 |
| Points / Game | 28.2 | 23.2 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 263 | 268 |
| Rushing | 93 | 97 |
| Passing | 150 | 132 |
| Penalty | 20 | 39 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 469 | 459 |
| Yards | 1,837 | 1,739 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.9 | 3.8 |
| Yards / Game | 141.3 | 133.8 |
| Touchdowns | 23 | 16 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 446 | 467 |
| Completions | 294 | 267 |
| Completion % | 65.9% | 57.2% |
| Yards | 3,378 | 2,903 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.6 | 6.2 |
| Touchdowns | 21 | 17 |
| Interceptions | 8 | 9 |
| Passer Rating | 141.49 | 117.55 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 915 | 926 |
| Yards | 5,215 | 4,642 |
| Yards / Play | 5.7 | 5.0 |
| Yards / Game | 401.2 | 357.1 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 24 | 23 |
| Yards | 156 | 110 |
| Average | 6.5 | 4.8 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 37 | 17 |
| Yards | 690 | 385 |
| Average | 18.6 | 22.6 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 62 | 61 |
| Yards | 2,716 | 2,632 |
| Average | 43.8 | 43.1 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 9 | 8 |
| Yards | 61 | 33 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 15 | 13 |
| Lost | 7 | 7 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 101 | 69 |
| Yards | 924 | 609 |
| Yards / Game | 71.1 | 46.8 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 30:55 | 28:51 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 199 | 198 |
| Conversions | 83 | 77 |
| Conversion % | 41.7% | 38.9% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 28 | 26 |
| Conversions | 17 | 12 |
| Conversion % | 60.7% | 46.2% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 48 | 49 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 43 | 40 |
| Score % | 89.6% | 81.6% |
| Touchdowns | 33 | 25 |
| TD % | 68.8% | 51.0% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 23 | 28 |
| Made | 19 | 22 |
| Pct | 82.6% | 78.6% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 40 | 32 |
| Made | 39 | 31 |
| Pct | 97.5% | 96.9% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 4 | 2 |
| Made | 2 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.