Fourth Down Data
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ISU

Iowa State

CyclonesBalanced
Big 12 Conference7-6#31 (+4.86)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

77· BOverall
Offense
73· BRating
72· BPer play
29· DConsistency
65· CBig plays
Defense
72· BRating
51· CPer play
73· BConsistency
Situational
80· BRed-zone O
65· CRed-zone D
85· B3rd down O
75· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.096
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.045
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.064
Defensive EPA/play
+0.003
lower = better
Off Success Rate
43.1%
Def Success Rate
43.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.061
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.265
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.32

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.63
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.40
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.17
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.03
own return game
Return Defense
+0.09
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#31
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#66
model 35 higher
Recruiting Rank
#59
model 28 spots higher
4 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Iowa State ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
89th
Opp-adjusted defense
72th
Offensive EPA/play
72th
Defensive EPA/play
51th
Offensive success rate
16th
Explosiveness
66th
Defensive havoc
52th
Points per drive
60th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Bowling Green2024OA +0.012 / +0.012similar: turnover rate, passing offense, havoc rate3652Arkansas2021OA +0.129 / +0.084similar: turnover rate, pass defense, offensive EPA3363Kansas State2022OA +0.082 / +0.085similar: turnover rate, defensive EPA, offensive EPA3334Nevada2021OA +0.074 / +0.005similar: passing offense, rushing offense, turnover rate3295Kansas State2019OA -0.010 / +0.045similar: TD drive rate, defensive EPA, turnover rate311

2023 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Northern Iowa30-9W-18.5W46.5U
2vs Iowa13-20L+3.0L40.5U
3@ Ohio7-10L-3.0L42.5U
4vs Oklahoma State34-27W-3.5W35.75O
5@ Oklahoma20-50L+20.0L48.5O
6vs TCU27-14W+6.5W52.5U
7@ Cincinnati30-10W+5.0W45.5U
9@ Baylor30-18W-2.5W47.5O
10vs Kansas21-28L-2.5L54U
11@ BYU45-13W-6.5W41.5O
12vs Texas16-26L+7.5L47.5U
13@ Kansas State42-35W+10.0W46.5O
18@ Memphis26-36L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-6
53.8%
O/U Record
6-7
46.2%
Straight Up
7-6
53.8%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS4-3
Favorite ATS4-3
Underdog ATS3-3
Last 5 ATS
LWLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off33thRush Off81thRed Zone Off81th3rd Down Off86thPass Def86thRush Def35thRed Zone Def65th3rd Down Def76th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.04162th-0.00656th
Red Zone+0.13581th-0.07865th
Third Down+0.35786th+0.07976th
No Garbage Time+0.06070th-0.00956th
First Half-0.03531th-0.05075th
Second Half+0.13291th+0.03437th
Early Downs-0.00860th-0.02744th
Passing Downs-0.00633th-0.05686th
Standard Downs+0.07281th+0.02335th
Goal to Go+0.18081th-0.04857th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 49.9%Rush 50.1%
Havoc/Game
13.0
Havoc Rate
18.4%
TO Margin
+0.6
Explosive/G
13.5
Yards/Game
364.9
Pts/Drive
2.32
3rd Down%
39.1%
3&Out%
23.2%

Team Statistics

2023 season totals across 13 games — Iowa State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatIowa StateOpponents
Scoring
Points341296
Points / Game26.222.8
First Downs
Total212260
Rushing68102
Passing132133
Penalty1225
Rushing
Attempts382456
Yards1,5591,745
Yards / Carry4.13.8
Yards / Game119.9134.2
Touchdowns1612
Passing
Attempts381448
Completions241250
Completion %63.3%55.8%
Yards3,1852,976
Yards / Attempt8.46.6
Touchdowns2321
Interceptions816
Passer Rating149.20119.93
Total Offense
Plays763904
Yards4,7444,721
Yards / Play6.25.2
Yards / Game364.9363.2
Punt Returns
Returns1621
Yards127136
Average7.96.5
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns1833
Yards382627
Average21.219.0
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6259
Yards2,7032,465
Average43.641.8
Interception Returns
Returns168
Yards150148
Touchdowns13
Fumbles
Fumbles97
Lost33
Penalties
Penalties6354
Yards569466
Yards / Game43.835.8
Time of Possession
Per Game29:0930:51
Third Downs
Attempts174191
Conversions6869
Conversion %39.1%36.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1636
Conversions1021
Conversion %62.5%58.3%
Red Zone
Trips3341
Scores (TD + FG)3130
Score %93.9%73.2%
Touchdowns2022
TD %60.6%53.7%
Field Goals
Attempts2620
Made2115
Pct80.8%75.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3829
Made3627
Pct94.7%93.1%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts27
Made12
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →