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NEV
Nevada
Wolf PackPass-HeavyMountain West Conference8-5#46 (+3.60)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
66· COverall
Offense
79· BRating
58· CPer play
47· CConsistency
82· BBig plays
Defense
46· CRating
62· CPer play
33· DConsistency
Situational
74· BRed-zone O
15· DRed-zone D
72· B3rd down O
92· A-3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.074
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.005
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.035
Defensive EPA/play
-0.045
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.8%
Def Success Rate
46.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.080
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.040
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.51
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+0.60
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.53
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.44
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.32
own return game
Return Defense
-0.69
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#46
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#30
market 16 higher
Recruiting Rank
#72
model 26 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Nevada ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense76th
Opp-adjusted defense49th
Offensive EPA/play59th
Defensive EPA/play62th
Offensive success rate55th
Explosiveness83th
Defensive havoc65th
Points per drive71th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Fresno State2023OA +0.055 / -0.018similar: TD drive rate, turnover rate, takeaway rate3642Boise State2017OA +0.087 / +0.050similar: havoc rate, pass defense, turnover rate3493Indiana2019OA +0.128 / -0.036similar: havoc rate, offensive success rate, passing offense3344Iowa State2023OA +0.096 / +0.045similar: passing offense, rushing offense, turnover rate3295Kansas State2022OA +0.082 / +0.085similar: turnover rate, pass defense, offensive EPA321
2021 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ California | 22-17 | W | +3.0 | W | 52.5 | U |
| 2 | vs Idaho State | 49-10 | W | -33.8 | W | 54 | O |
| 3 | @ Kansas State | 17-38 | L | -1.3 | L | 50.5 | O |
| 5 | @ Boise State | 41-31 | W | +6.5 | W | 58.5 | O |
| 6 | vs New Mexico State | 55-28 | W | -31.0 | L | 63 | O |
| 7 | vs Hawai'i | 34-17 | W | -14.0 | W | 60.5 | U |
| 8 | @ Fresno State | 32-34 | L | -20.5 | W | 58 | O |
| 9 | vs UNLV | 51-20 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 10 | vs San José State | 27-24 | W | -10.0 | L | 54.5 | U |
| 11 | @ San Diego State | 21-23 | L | -1.5 | L | 52.5 | O |
| 12 | vs Air Force | 39-41 | L | - | - | - | - |
| 13 | @ Colorado State | 52-10 | W | -4.0 | W | 55.5 | O |
| 17 | vs Western Michigan | 24-52 | L | +7.0 | L | 57 | O |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
8-5
61.5%
O/U Record
9-4
69.2%
Straight Up
8-5
61.5%
Home ATS3-4
Away ATS5-1
Favorite ATS4-4
Underdog ATS4-1
Last 5 ATS
LWLWL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.058 | 71th | -0.028 | 51th |
| Red Zone | +0.097 | 75th | +0.167 | 15th |
| Third Down | +0.202 | 73th | -0.224 | 93th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.041 | 60th | -0.064 | 73th |
| First Half | -0.009 | 44th | -0.044 | 63th |
| Second Half | +0.133 | 93th | -0.015 | 52th |
| Early Downs | +0.064 | 78th | -0.016 | 50th |
| Passing Downs | +0.075 | 75th | -0.142 | 80th |
| Standard Downs | +0.048 | 65th | +0.022 | 38th |
| Goal to Go | +0.155 | 80th | +0.430 | 4th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 62.9%Rush 37.1%
Havoc/Game
15.1
Havoc Rate
19.7%
TO Margin
+1.2
Explosive/G
16.1
Yards/Game
424.4
Pts/Drive
2.51
3rd Down%
41.5%
3&Out%
18.6%
Team Statistics
2021 season totals across 13 games — Nevada vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Nevada | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 464 | 345 |
| Points / Game | 35.7 | 26.5 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 289 | 275 |
| Rushing | 68 | 131 |
| Passing | 194 | 129 |
| Penalty | 27 | 15 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 337 | 516 |
| Yards | 1,006 | 2,425 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.0 | 4.7 |
| Yards / Game | 77.4 | 186.5 |
| Touchdowns | 13 | 23 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 572 | 436 |
| Completions | 395 | 270 |
| Completion % | 69.1% | 61.9% |
| Yards | 4,511 | 2,876 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.9 | 6.6 |
| Touchdowns | 38 | 19 |
| Interceptions | 9 | 14 |
| Passer Rating | 154.08 | 125.29 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 909 | 952 |
| Yards | 5,517 | 5,301 |
| Yards / Play | 6.1 | 5.6 |
| Yards / Game | 424.4 | 407.8 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 20 | 14 |
| Yards | 223 | 142 |
| Average | 11.2 | 10.1 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 39 | 24 |
| Yards | 810 | 597 |
| Average | 20.8 | 24.9 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 56 | 59 |
| Yards | 2,446 | 2,527 |
| Average | 43.7 | 42.8 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 14 | 9 |
| Yards | 219 | 118 |
| Touchdowns | 3 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 9 | 23 |
| Lost | 2 | 13 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 85 | 68 |
| Yards | 716 | 643 |
| Yards / Game | 55.1 | 49.5 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 28:53 | 31:07 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 188 | 191 |
| Conversions | 78 | 74 |
| Conversion % | 41.5% | 38.7% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 21 | 29 |
| Conversions | 12 | 15 |
| Conversion % | 57.1% | 51.7% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 52 | 44 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 48 | 39 |
| Score % | 92.3% | 88.6% |
| Touchdowns | 36 | 31 |
| TD % | 69.2% | 70.5% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 30 | 20 |
| Made | 22 | 14 |
| Pct | 73.3% | 70.0% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 52 | 41 |
| Made | 52 | 41 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 6 | 3 |
| Made | 2 | 2 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.