Fourth Down Data
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WKU

Western Kentucky

HilltoppersBalanced
Conference USA0-1#109 (-5.56)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

21· DOverall
Offense
28· DRating
22· DPer play
22· DConsistency
59· CBig plays
Defense
24· DRating
8· FPer play
7· FConsistency
Situational
43· CRed-zone O
20· DRed-zone D
25· D3rd down O
18· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.011
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.038
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.127
Defensive EPA/play
+0.268
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.1%
Def Success Rate
55.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
31.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.395
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
0.78

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.35
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.21
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.08
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.08
own return game
Return Defense
+0.02
vs opponent returns

Peer Context

Where Western Kentucky ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
35th
Opp-adjusted defense
23th
Offensive EPA/play
22th
Defensive EPA/play
8th
Offensive success rate
36th
Explosiveness
60th
Defensive havoc
3th
Points per drive
10th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1South Florida2020OA -0.047 / -0.026similar: havoc rate, TD drive rate, passing offense4182UCLA2018OA +0.036 / -0.086similar: passing offense, defensive success rate, defensive EPA3813UNLV2020OA -0.027 / -0.044similar: defensive EPA, run defense, passing offense3644Middle Tennessee2020OA -0.016 / -0.033similar: takeaway rate, passing offense, turnover rate3645South Florida2021OA -0.052 / -0.142similar: defensive EPA, havoc rate, defensive success rate357

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Nevada14-49L-1.0L51.5O
2@ Georgia------
3@ Indiana------
4vs Mercyhurst------
5@ New Mexico State------
6vs Missouri State------
7@ Sam Houston------
9vs Delaware------
10@ Middle Tennessee------
11vs Jacksonville State------
12@ Liberty------
13vs Kennesaw State------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
0-1
0.0%
O/U Record
1-0
100.0%
Straight Up
0-1
0.0%
Home ATS0-0
Away ATS0-1
Favorite ATS0-1
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
L
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off35thRush Off25thRed Zone Off44th3rd Down Off26thPass Def3thRush Def24thRed Zone Def20th3rd Down Def18th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.11023th+0.2617th
Red Zone-0.01744th+0.52720th
Third Down-0.21926th+0.41118th
No Garbage Time-0.12722th+0.2689th
First Half-0.01140th+0.3057th
Second Half-0.21818th+0.22218th
Early Downs-0.01839th+0.00037th
Passing Downs-0.08535th+0.7123th
Standard Downs-0.12525th+0.07424th
Goal to Go+1.85198th+0.41449th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 48.8%Rush 51.2%
Havoc/Game
4.0
Havoc Rate
6.6%
TO Margin
-1.0
Explosive/G
14.0
Yards/Game
367.0
Pts/Drive
0.78
3rd Down%
35.3%
3&Out%
33.3%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — Western Kentucky vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatWestern KentuckyOpponents
Scoring
Points1449
Points / Game14.049.0
First Downs
Total2320
Rushing1113
Passing106
Penalty21
Rushing
Attempts4242
Yards164323
Yards / Carry3.97.7
Yards / Game164.0323.0
Touchdowns25
Passing
Attempts4016
Completions249
Completion %60.0%56.3%
Yards203163
Yards / Attempt5.110.2
Touchdowns02
Interceptions01
Passer Rating102.63170.57
Total Offense
Plays8258
Yards367486
Yards / Play4.58.4
Yards / Game367.0486.0
Punt Returns
Returns02
Yards019
Average—9.5
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns21
Yards2230
Average11.030.0
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts63
Yards218144
Average36.348.0
Interception Returns
Returns10
Yards80
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles20
Lost20
Penalties
Penalties64
Yards5940
Yards / Game59.040.0
Time of Possession
Per Game32:3327:27
Third Downs
Attempts1710
Conversions65
Conversion %35.3%50.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts22
Conversions12
Conversion %50.0%100.0%
Red Zone
Trips35
Scores (TD + FG)25
Score %66.7%100.0%
Touchdowns25
TD %66.7%100.0%
Field Goals
Attempts00
Made00
Pct——
PAT Kicking
Attempts27
Made27
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →