Fourth Down Data
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EMU

Eastern Michigan

EaglesBalanced
Mid-American Conference5-7#91 (-2.88)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

33· DOverall
Offense
22· DRating
29· DPer play
46· CConsistency
26· DBig plays
Defense
31· DRating
52· CPer play
23· DConsistency
Situational
24· DRed-zone O
21· DRed-zone D
75· B3rd down O
46· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.020
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.004
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.045
Defensive EPA/play
-0.007
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.9%
Def Success Rate
47.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.037
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.108
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.99

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.11
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.12
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.03
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.08
own return game
Return Defense
+0.05
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#91
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#97
model 6 higher
Recruiting Rank
#80
recruiting 11 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Eastern Michigan ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
28th
Opp-adjusted defense
47th
Offensive EPA/play
29th
Defensive EPA/play
52th
Offensive success rate
35th
Explosiveness
26th
Defensive havoc
54th
Points per drive
30th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Arkansas State2025OA -0.117 / -0.043similar: TD drive rate, havoc rate, takeaway rate3572Tulsa2025OA -0.071 / -0.025similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, passing offense3553NC State2019OA -0.065 / -0.033similar: offensive success rate, passing offense, offensive EPA3374Stanford2026OA -0.036 / -0.136similar: offensive EPA, defensive success rate, passing offense3265Virginia2024OA -0.035 / -0.006similar: rushing offense, takeaway rate, defensive EPA323

2024 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Massachusetts28-14W+2.5W50U
2@ Washington9-30L+24.5W46.75U
3vs Jacksonville State37-34W-2.0W54O
4vs Saint Francis (PA)36-0W----
5@ Kent State52-33W-14.0W45.5O
7vs Miami (OH)14-38L+3.0L46.5O
8vs Central Michigan38-34W-2.0W56O
9@ Akron21-25L-3.0L51.5U
10vs Toledo28-29L+8.5W53.5O
12@ Ohio10-35L-1.0L52O
13vs Buffalo20-37L----
14@ Western Michigan18-26L+7.0L56.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-5
54.5%
O/U Record
6-5
54.5%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS3-2
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS3-2
Underdog ATS3-3
Last 5 ATS
LWLLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off62thRush Off8thRed Zone Off24th3rd Down Off76thPass Def54thRush Def48thRed Zone Def22th3rd Down Def46th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.05224th-0.00751th
Red Zone-0.13624th+0.11522th
Third Down+0.22076th+0.09146th
No Garbage Time-0.05027th-0.02057th
First Half-0.14812th-0.02957th
Second Half+0.04059th+0.01741th
Early Downs-0.10610th+0.04819th
Passing Downs+0.07262th-0.00654th
Standard Downs-0.1138th-0.00848th
Goal to Go-0.21419th+0.14022th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 46.6%Rush 53.4%
Havoc/Game
12.1
Havoc Rate
18.6%
TO Margin
-0.2
Explosive/G
15.8
Yards/Game
377.8
Pts/Drive
1.99
3rd Down%
42.2%
3&Out%
23.6%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 12 games — Eastern Michigan vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatEastern MichiganOpponents
Scoring
Points311335
Points / Game25.927.9
First Downs
Total258236
Rushing102103
Passing12999
Penalty2734
Rushing
Attempts477436
Yards1,7021,954
Yards / Carry3.64.5
Yards / Game141.8162.8
Touchdowns1719
Passing
Attempts416309
Completions249197
Completion %59.9%63.8%
Yards2,8322,651
Yards / Attempt6.88.6
Touchdowns1722
Interceptions105
Passer Rating125.72156.08
Total Offense
Plays893745
Yards4,5344,605
Yards / Play5.16.2
Yards / Game377.8383.8
Punt Returns
Returns1916
Yards6094
Average3.25.9
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns2223
Yards404476
Average18.420.7
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5154
Yards2,1292,267
Average41.742.0
Interception Returns
Returns510
Yards23112
Touchdowns01
Fumbles
Fumbles1322
Lost710
Penalties
Penalties7787
Yards744775
Yards / Game62.064.6
Time of Possession
Per Game31:0728:53
Third Downs
Attempts192149
Conversions8154
Conversion %42.2%36.2%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2923
Conversions168
Conversion %55.2%34.8%
Red Zone
Trips4432
Scores (TD + FG)3726
Score %84.1%81.3%
Touchdowns2221
TD %50.0%65.6%
Field Goals
Attempts2517
Made2010
Pct80.0%58.8%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2936
Made2735
Pct93.1%97.2%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts77
Made44
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →