Fourth Down Data
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EMU

Eastern Michigan

EaglesBalanced
Mid-American Conference7-6#86 (-2.07)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

36· DOverall
Offense
66· CRating
65· CPer play
74· BConsistency
56· CBig plays
Defense
16· DRating
16· DPer play
12· FConsistency
Situational
57· CRed-zone O
13· FRed-zone D
85· B3rd down O
45· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.010
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.137
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.049
Defensive EPA/play
+0.094
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.4%
Def Success Rate
49.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
26.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.044
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.262
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.54

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.59
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.45
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.34
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.91
own return game
Return Defense
-0.47
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#86
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#87
model 1 higher
Recruiting Rank
#72
recruiting 14 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Eastern Michigan ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
44th
Opp-adjusted defense
8th
Offensive EPA/play
65th
Defensive EPA/play
17th
Offensive success rate
70th
Explosiveness
56th
Defensive havoc
11th
Points per drive
74th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Wake Forest2020OA +0.020 / -0.032similar: TD drive rate, defensive EPA, passing offense3912Missouri2020OA -0.009 / -0.039similar: defensive EPA, offensive success rate, rushing offense3653Colorado2017OA -0.028 / -0.076similar: run defense, pass defense, offensive success rate3534Georgia Southern2024OA -0.003 / -0.012similar: defensive success rate, TD drive rate, rushing offense3525South Carolina2018OA +0.092 / -0.024similar: rushing offense, passing offense, TD drive rate347

2021 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Saint Francis (PA)35-15W----
2@ Wisconsin7-34L+24.5L50.5U
3@ Massachusetts42-28W-22.0L56O
4vs Texas State59-21W-7.0W62.5O
5@ Northern Illinois20-27L+2.5L60U
6vs Miami (OH)13-12W+1.0W59.5U
7vs Ball State31-38L+1.5L55.5O
8@ Bowling Green55-24W-3.0W49O
10@ Toledo52-49W-6.0L61.5U
11vs Ohio26-34L+6.0W66U
12vs Western Michigan22-21W+9.0L64U
13@ Central Michigan10-31L----
16@ Liberty20-56L+9.5L58.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
7-6
53.8%
Home ATS3-2
Away ATS2-5
Favorite ATS2-2
Underdog ATS3-5
Last 5 ATS
WLWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off72thRush Off57thRed Zone Off58th3rd Down Off86thPass Def76thRush Def6thRed Zone Def14th3rd Down Def46th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.03962th+0.06619th
Red Zone+0.00758th+0.16814th
Third Down+0.28086th+0.09746th
No Garbage Time+0.04765th+0.07819th
First Half+0.02251th+0.07621th
Second Half+0.05575th+0.05525th
Early Downs+0.01056th+0.1168th
Passing Downs+0.06472th-0.11776th
Standard Downs+0.02657th+0.1536th
Goal to Go+0.16682th+0.3916th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 50.0%Rush 50.0%
Havoc/Game
10.3
Havoc Rate
14.2%
TO Margin
+0.2
Explosive/G
15.5
Yards/Game
381.4
Pts/Drive
2.54
3rd Down%
41.7%
3&Out%
17.6%

Team Statistics

2021 season totals across 13 games — Eastern Michigan vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatEastern MichiganOpponents
Scoring
Points392390
Points / Game30.230.0
First Downs
Total289296
Rushing91144
Passing169133
Penalty2919
Rushing
Attempts455508
Yards1,5412,599
Yards / Carry3.45.1
Yards / Game118.5199.9
Touchdowns2627
Passing
Attempts455394
Completions309231
Completion %67.9%58.6%
Yards3,4173,070
Yards / Attempt7.57.8
Touchdowns1919
Interceptions98
Passer Rating140.82135.93
Total Offense
Plays910902
Yards4,9585,669
Yards / Play5.46.3
Yards / Game381.4436.1
Punt Returns
Returns1515
Yards11471
Average7.64.7
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns2730
Yards459652
Average17.021.7
Touchdowns02
Punting
Punts5149
Yards2,3431,947
Average45.939.7
Interception Returns
Returns89
Yards16694
Touchdowns22
Fumbles
Fumbles1115
Lost59
Penalties
Penalties5089
Yards448788
Yards / Game34.560.6
Time of Possession
Per Game30:3429:16
Third Downs
Attempts175163
Conversions7371
Conversion %41.7%43.6%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2921
Conversions1410
Conversion %48.3%47.6%
Red Zone
Trips5739
Scores (TD + FG)4835
Score %84.2%89.7%
Touchdowns3526
TD %61.4%66.7%
Field Goals
Attempts2219
Made1914
Pct86.4%73.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4746
Made4744
Pct100.0%95.7%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts14
Made02
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →