Fourth Down Data
← All Teams
WAKE

Wake Forest

Demon DeaconsBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference4-5#53 (+1.37)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

59· COverall
Offense
79· BRating
70· BPer play
59· CConsistency
37· DBig plays
Defense
30· DRating
19· DPer play
19· DConsistency
Situational
94· ARed-zone O
38· DRed-zone D
82· B3rd down O
46· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.020
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.032
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.079
Defensive EPA/play
+0.114
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.7%
Def Success Rate
49.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
27.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.035
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.056
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.55

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.99
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.15
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.32
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.54
own return game
Return Defense
-0.03
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#53
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#89
model 36 higher
Recruiting Rank
—
no recruiting profile

Peer Context

Where Wake Forest ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
71th
Opp-adjusted defense
19th
Offensive EPA/play
70th
Defensive EPA/play
19th
Offensive success rate
61th
Explosiveness
38th
Defensive havoc
46th
Points per drive
70th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Arizona State2017OA +0.087 / +0.002similar: offensive success rate, run defense, TD drive rate4112Eastern Michigan2021OA -0.010 / -0.137similar: TD drive rate, defensive EPA, passing offense3913Arizona State2018OA +0.072 / -0.049similar: turnover rate, offensive EPA, takeaway rate3664Virginia Tech2018OA +0.023 / -0.095similar: defensive EPA, run defense, defensive success rate3575Vanderbilt2024OA +0.014 / -0.035similar: turnover rate, defensive EPA, defensive success rate345

2020 Schedule & Results

9 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
2vs Clemson13-37L+32.5W60U
3@ NC State42-45L+1.0L52.5O
5vs Campbell66-14W----
7vs Virginia40-23W+2.5W61O
8vs Virginia Tech23-16W+8.5W68U
9@ Syracuse38-14W-11.5W59.5U
11@ North Carolina53-59L+13.5W66O
15@ Louisville21-45L+2.0L62.25O
18@ Wisconsin28-42L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-3
62.5%
O/U Record
5-3
62.5%
Straight Up
4-5
44.4%
Home ATS3-0
Away ATS2-3
Favorite ATS1-0
Underdog ATS4-3
Last 5 ATS
WWWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off68thRush Off68thRed Zone Off95th3rd Down Off83thPass Def45thRush Def16thRed Zone Def38th3rd Down Def46th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.07670th+0.09222th
Red Zone+0.30395th+0.04438th
Third Down+0.27883th+0.09046th
No Garbage Time+0.07570th+0.11617th
First Half+0.14182th+0.16011th
Second Half+0.01247th+0.01554th
Early Downs+0.03867th+0.03437th
Passing Downs+0.13068th+0.07045th
Standard Downs+0.04468th+0.10216th
Goal to Go+0.42791th+0.04749th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 44.9%Rush 55.1%
Havoc/Game
14.1
Havoc Rate
18.4%
TO Margin
+1.1
Explosive/G
15.2
Yards/Game
444.4
Pts/Drive
2.55
3rd Down%
40.6%
3&Out%
17.6%

Team Statistics

2020 season totals across 9 games — Wake Forest vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatWake ForestOpponents
Scoring
Points324295
Points / Game36.032.8
First Downs
Total211209
Rushing83100
Passing10991
Penalty1918
Rushing
Attempts380365
Yards1,4671,650
Yards / Carry3.94.5
Yards / Game163.0183.3
Touchdowns2220
Passing
Attempts310298
Completions175189
Completion %56.5%63.4%
Yards2,5332,271
Yards / Attempt8.27.6
Touchdowns1417
Interceptions513
Passer Rating136.77137.54
Total Offense
Plays690663
Yards4,0003,921
Yards / Play5.85.9
Yards / Game444.4435.7
Punt Returns
Returns109
Yards9652
Average9.65.8
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns1521
Yards352469
Average23.522.3
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts4040
Yards1,6101,674
Average40.341.9
Interception Returns
Returns135
Yards132197
Touchdowns30
Fumbles
Fumbles712
Lost24
Penalties
Penalties4857
Yards401531
Yards / Game44.659.0
Time of Possession
Per Game27:5232:08
Third Downs
Attempts138125
Conversions5652
Conversion %40.6%41.6%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2110
Conversions106
Conversion %47.6%60.0%
Red Zone
Trips4341
Scores (TD + FG)4035
Score %93.0%85.4%
Touchdowns3128
TD %72.1%68.3%
Field Goals
Attempts1717
Made1412
Pct82.4%70.6%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3837
Made3837
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts20
Made20
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →