Fourth Down Data
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ASU

Arizona State

Sun DevilsBalanced
Big 12 Conference7-6#52 (+4.38)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

61· COverall
Offense
71· BRating
78· BPer play
60· CConsistency
71· BBig plays
Defense
48· CRating
33· DPer play
30· DConsistency
Situational
95· ARed-zone O
51· CRed-zone D
92· A-3rd down O
10· F3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.087
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.002
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.064
Defensive EPA/play
+0.036
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.0%
Def Success Rate
48.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.027
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.114
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.35

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.23
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.08
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.20
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.08
own return game
Return Defense
-0.02
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#52
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#27
recruiting 25 spots higher
16 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Arizona State ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
78th
Opp-adjusted defense
52th
Offensive EPA/play
79th
Defensive EPA/play
34th
Offensive success rate
61th
Explosiveness
72th
Defensive havoc
41th
Points per drive
68th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Wake Forest2020OA +0.020 / -0.032similar: offensive success rate, run defense, TD drive rate4112Georgia Tech2024OA +0.026 / -0.008similar: rushing offense, TD drive rate, passing offense3793Louisville2021OA +0.077 / +0.021similar: TD drive rate, defensive EPA, offensive success rate3604Ole Miss2023OA +0.122 / +0.003similar: turnover rate, defensive success rate, rushing offense3595Wake Forest2017OA +0.156 / +0.050similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, turnover rate355

2017 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs New Mexico State37-31W+4.5L61.5O
2vs San Diego State20-30L-3.0L53.5U
3@ Texas Tech45-52L+6.5L74O
4vs Oregon37-35W+14.5W75U
5@ Stanford24-34L+17.0W60.5U
7vs Washington13-7W+17.5W59.5U
8@ Utah30-10W+9.5W54U
9vs USC17-48L+5.5L57.5O
10vs Colorado41-30W-6.5W59O
11@ UCLA37-44L+3.0L65.5O
12@ Oregon State40-24W-7.0W58.5O
13vs Arizona42-30W+2.0W75.5U
18vs NC State31-52L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-5
58.3%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
6-6
50.0%
Home ATS4-3
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS2-1
Underdog ATS5-4
Last 5 ATS
LWLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off70thRush Off72thRed Zone Off96th3rd Down Off92thPass Def42thRush Def12thRed Zone Def52th3rd Down Def10th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.05677th+0.06722th
Red Zone+0.34396th-0.00652th
Third Down+0.27692th+0.20910th
No Garbage Time+0.05677th+0.04432th
First Half+0.07080th+0.11215th
Second Half+0.04075th+0.02132th
Early Downs-0.02156th+0.1296th
Passing Downs+0.07870th+0.00242th
Standard Downs+0.04472th+0.10112th
Goal to Go+0.24683th-0.16074th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 42.4%Rush 57.6%
Havoc/Game
12.8
Havoc Rate
17.2%
TO Margin
+0.2
Explosive/G
18.1
Yards/Game
431.2
Pts/Drive
2.35
3rd Down%
44.7%
3&Out%
22.0%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 13 games — Arizona State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatArizona StateOpponents
Scoring
Points414427
Points / Game31.832.8
First Downs
Total281290
Rushing130112
Passing131155
Penalty2023
Rushing
Attempts565465
Yards2,2812,272
Yards / Carry4.04.9
Yards / Game175.5174.8
Touchdowns2731
Passing
Attempts416459
Completions264289
Completion %63.5%63.0%
Yards3,3243,574
Yards / Attempt8.07.8
Touchdowns2120
Interceptions911
Passer Rating142.91137.96
Total Offense
Plays981924
Yards5,6055,846
Yards / Play5.76.3
Yards / Game431.2449.7
Punt Returns
Returns1928
Yards115156
Average6.15.6
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns3822
Yards734511
Average19.323.2
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts6560
Yards2,5262,308
Average38.938.5
Interception Returns
Returns119
Yards95116
Touchdowns22
Fumbles
Fumbles1312
Lost66
Penalties
Penalties5088
Yards487744
Yards / Game37.557.2
Time of Possession
Per Game31:2428:36
Third Downs
Attempts208180
Conversions9376
Conversion %44.7%42.2%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1818
Conversions107
Conversion %55.6%38.9%
Red Zone
Trips5355
Scores (TD + FG)5145
Score %96.2%81.8%
Touchdowns4032
TD %75.5%58.2%
Field Goals
Attempts2722
Made1918
Pct70.4%81.8%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5050
Made4949
Pct98.0%98.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts13
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →