Kent State Golden Flashes Football Analytics

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KENT

Kent State

Golden FlashesRun-Heavy

Mid-American Conference2-10#127 (-20.85)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

5· FOverall

Offense

1· FRating

3· FPer play

1· FConsistency

6· FBig plays

Defense

25· DRating

45· CPer play

44· CConsistency

Situational

1· FRed-zone O

25· DRed-zone D

7· F3rd down O

47· C3rd down D

How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense

-0.276

Opp-Adj Defense

-0.054

higher = better

Offensive EPA/play

-0.257

Defensive EPA/play

-0.001

lower = better

Off Success Rate

37.1%

Def Success Rate

46.6%

allowed · lower = better

Explosive Rate

20.1%

pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8

Explosive Allowed

23.3%

lower = better

Net EPA/play

-0.256

net · higher = better

Recent EPA Trend

+0.036

last 3 weeks

Points / Drive

1.02

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating

-0.49

expected pts/game

Kicking

+0.03

own kicking game

Kick Defense

-0.42

vs opponent kicks

Returns

-0.12

own return game

Return Defense

+0.01

vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank

#127

opponent-adjusted strength

AP Poll

NR

—

Market (Vegas)

—

unavailable

Recruiting Rank

#75

recruiting 52 spots higher

0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Kent State ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense

0th

Opp-adjusted defense

32th

Offensive EPA/play

3th

Defensive EPA/play

46th

Offensive success rate

2th

Explosiveness

6th

Defensive havoc

57th

Points per drive

2th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Michigan State2023OA -0.078 / -0.038similar: offensive EPA, rushing offense, turnover rate418 2Illinois2017OA -0.133 / -0.054similar: turnover rate, offensive EPA, rushing offense396 3Colorado State2022OA -0.168 / -0.033similar: TD drive rate, rushing offense, offensive success rate385 4Massachusetts2022OA -0.194 / -0.080similar: TD drive rate, passing offense, havoc rate382 5Charlotte2023OA -0.104 / +0.014similar: turnover rate, TD drive rate, pass defense375

2017 Schedule & Results

12 games

Wk	Opponent	Score	W/L	Spread	ATS	Total	O/U
1	@ Clemson	3-56	L	+38.0	L	52	O
2	vs Howard	38-31	W	-24.5	L	-	-
3	@ Marshall	0-21	L	+14.0	L	50.5	U
4	@ Louisville	3-42	L	+42.0	W	56	U
5	vs Buffalo	13-27	L	+7.5	L	41	U
6	@ Northern Illinois	3-24	L	+23.0	W	44	U
7	vs Miami (OH)	17-14	W	+8.5	W	42.5	U
8	@ Ohio	3-48	L	+17.0	L	47	O
10	vs Bowling Green	16-44	L	+1.5	L	48	O
11	@ Western Michigan	20-48	L	+20.5	L	45	O
12	vs Central Michigan	23-42	L	+17.0	L	44.5	O
13	@ Akron	14-24	L	+14.5	W	46	U

Betting Profile

ATS Record

4-8

33.3%

O/U Record

5-6

45.5%

Straight Up

2-10

16.7%

Home ATS1-4

Away ATS3-4

Favorite ATS0-1

Underdog ATS4-7

Last 5 ATS

LLLLW

Full ATS log & splits →

Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Situation	OFF EPA	OFF Rank	DEF EPA	DEF Rank
Overall	-0.265	2th	+0.016	37th
Red Zone	-0.477	1th	+0.117	25th
Third Down	-0.390	7th	-0.002	47th
No Garbage Time	-0.244	3th	+0.027	39th
First Half	-0.233	5th	+0.006	40th
Second Half	-0.298	2th	+0.026	32th
Early Downs	-0.241	2th	-0.033	58th
Passing Downs	-0.259	7th	+0.080	27th
Standard Downs	-0.268	2th	-0.020	47th
Goal to Go	-0.532	4th	+0.098	33th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 31.0%Rush 69.0%

Havoc/Game

13.2

Havoc Rate

18.9%

TO Margin

-0.6

Explosive/G

10.8

Yards/Game

275.2

Pts/Drive

1.02

3rd Down%

28.7%

3&Out%

28.7%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 12 games — Kent State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.

Stat	Kent State	Opponents
Scoring
Points	153	421
Points / Game	12.8	35.1
First Downs
Total	169	241
Rushing	99	111
Passing	57	96
Penalty	13	34
Rushing
Attempts	520	487
Yards	1,830	2,559
Yards / Carry	3.5	5.3
Yards / Game	152.5	213.3
Touchdowns	10	31
Passing
Attempts	234	302
Completions	114	169
Completion %	48.7%	56.0%
Yards	1,472	2,341
Yards / Attempt	6.3	7.8
Touchdowns	8	19
Interceptions	15	12
Passer Rating	100.02	133.89
Total Offense
Plays	754	789
Yards	3,302	4,900
Yards / Play	4.4	6.2
Yards / Game	275.2	408.3
Punt Returns
Returns	21	27
Yards	121	92
Average	5.8	3.4
Touchdowns	0	0
Kickoff Returns
Returns	51	27
Yards	883	687
Average	17.3	25.4
Touchdowns	0	1
Punting
Punts	83	57
Yards	3,528	2,402
Average	42.5	42.1
Interception Returns
Returns	12	15
Yards	66	258
Touchdowns	0	3
Fumbles
Fumbles	21	14
Lost	11	7
Penalties
Penalties	94	79
Yards	895	641
Yards / Game	74.6	53.4
Time of Possession
Per Game	31:26	28:34
Third Downs
Attempts	174	146
Conversions	50	46
Conversion %	28.7%	31.5%
Fourth Downs
Attempts	20	15
Conversions	4	10
Conversion %	20.0%	66.7%
Red Zone
Trips	25	49
Scores (TD + FG)	16	41
Score %	64.0%	83.7%
Touchdowns	8	34
TD %	32.0%	69.4%
Field Goals
Attempts	15	15
Made	9	10
Pct	60.0%	66.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts	16	56
Made	14	55
Pct	87.5%	98.2%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts	2	0
Made	1	0

Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.

Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →