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CSU
Colorado State
RamsBalancedPac-12 Conference3-9#127 (-8.34)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
7· FOverall
Offense
1· FRating
6· FPer play
4· FConsistency
12· FBig plays
Defense
32· DRating
61· CPer play
34· DConsistency
Situational
1· FRed-zone O
4· FRed-zone D
5· F3rd down O
72· B3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.168
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.033
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.240
Defensive EPA/play
-0.053
lower = better
Off Success Rate
38.0%
Def Success Rate
47.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
20.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.187
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.066
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
0.94
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.04
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.33
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.04
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.19
own return game
Return Defense
+0.06
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#127
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#116
market 11 higher
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 52 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Colorado State ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense3th
Opp-adjusted defense38th
Offensive EPA/play6th
Defensive EPA/play61th
Offensive success rate4th
Explosiveness12th
Defensive havoc41th
Points per drive2th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1New Mexico2021OA -0.227 / +0.012similar: offensive success rate, TD drive rate, rushing offense3882Kent State2017OA -0.276 / -0.054similar: TD drive rate, rushing offense, offensive success rate3853Texas State2019OA -0.181 / -0.036similar: offensive success rate, TD drive rate, offensive EPA3674Michigan State2023OA -0.078 / -0.038similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, rushing offense3605Kennesaw State2024OA -0.085 / -0.027similar: TD drive rate, offensive success rate, defensive success rate358
2022 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Michigan | 7-51 | L | +30.5 | L | 61.5 | U |
| 2 | vs Middle Tennessee | 19-34 | L | -11.5 | L | 58.5 | U |
| 3 | @ Washington State | 7-38 | L | +16.5 | L | 53.5 | U |
| 4 | vs Sacramento State | 10-41 | L | +3.5 | L | 56.75 | U |
| 6 | @ Nevada | 17-14 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 7 | vs Utah State | 13-17 | L | +11.0 | W | 45.5 | U |
| 8 | vs Hawai'i | 17-13 | W | -5.0 | L | 46.5 | U |
| 9 | @ Boise State | 10-49 | L | +27.0 | L | 43 | O |
| 10 | @ San José State | 16-28 | L | +24.0 | W | 45 | U |
| 11 | vs Wyoming | 13-14 | L | +8.5 | W | 42 | U |
| 12 | @ Air Force | 12-24 | L | -7.5 | W | 34.5 | U |
| 13 | vs New Mexico | 17-0 | W | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
6-6
50.0%
O/U Record
1-11
8.3%
Straight Up
3-9
25.0%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS1-2
Underdog ATS5-4
Last 5 ATS
LWWWW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.207 | 4th | -0.049 | 62th |
| Red Zone | -0.875 | 1th | +0.251 | 4th |
| Third Down | -0.285 | 5th | -0.066 | 73th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.245 | 6th | -0.041 | 56th |
| First Half | -0.316 | 1th | +0.006 | 41th |
| Second Half | -0.109 | 20th | -0.114 | 84th |
| Early Downs | -0.190 | 8th | -0.075 | 74th |
| Passing Downs | -0.134 | 17th | -0.123 | 79th |
| Standard Downs | -0.258 | 2th | -0.009 | 45th |
| Goal to Go | -0.814 | 2th | +0.150 | 20th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 45.5%Rush 54.5%
Havoc/Game
12.9
Havoc Rate
17.5%
TO Margin
-0.3
Explosive/G
10.4
Yards/Game
285.8
Pts/Drive
0.94
3rd Down%
22.5%
3&Out%
27.3%
Team Statistics
2022 season totals across 12 games — Colorado State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Colorado State | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 158 | 323 |
| Points / Game | 13.2 | 26.9 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 175 | 243 |
| Rushing | 66 | 114 |
| Passing | 95 | 110 |
| Penalty | 14 | 19 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 385 | 473 |
| Yards | 1,068 | 1,963 |
| Yards / Carry | 2.8 | 4.2 |
| Yards / Game | 89.0 | 163.6 |
| Touchdowns | 4 | 24 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 322 | 355 |
| Completions | 203 | 219 |
| Completion % | 63.0% | 61.7% |
| Yards | 2,361 | 2,297 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.3 | 6.5 |
| Touchdowns | 12 | 15 |
| Interceptions | 11 | 8 |
| Passer Rating | 130.10 | 125.48 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 707 | 828 |
| Yards | 3,429 | 4,260 |
| Yards / Play | 4.9 | 5.1 |
| Yards / Game | 285.8 | 355.0 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 19 | 14 |
| Yards | 200 | 78 |
| Average | 10.5 | 5.6 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 19 | 6 |
| Yards | 319 | 103 |
| Average | 16.8 | 17.2 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 67 | 56 |
| Yards | 2,621 | 2,435 |
| Average | 39.1 | 43.5 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 8 | 11 |
| Yards | 79 | 111 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 15 | 19 |
| Lost | 8 | 7 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 83 | 58 |
| Yards | 733 | 513 |
| Yards / Game | 61.1 | 42.8 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 29:25 | 30:31 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 151 | 164 |
| Conversions | 34 | 62 |
| Conversion % | 22.5% | 37.8% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 33 | 19 |
| Conversions | 13 | 13 |
| Conversion % | 39.4% | 68.4% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 23 | 44 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 12 | 41 |
| Score % | 52.2% | 93.2% |
| Touchdowns | 5 | 33 |
| TD % | 21.7% | 75.0% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 14 | 19 |
| Made | 10 | 12 |
| Pct | 71.4% | 63.2% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 15 | 41 |
| Made | 14 | 41 |
| Pct | 93.3% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 4 | 0 |
| Made | 0 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.