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ULM
UL Monroe
WarhawksBalancedSun Belt Conference2-10#133 (-10.18)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
2· FOverall
Offense
2· FRating
3· FPer play
7· FConsistency
10· FBig plays
Defense
15· DRating
34· DPer play
27· DConsistency
Situational
1· FRed-zone O
51· CRed-zone D
33· D3rd down O
8· F3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.193
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.034
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.156
Defensive EPA/play
+0.046
lower = better
Off Success Rate
41.7%
Def Success Rate
48.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
20.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.202
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.021
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.29
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.89
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.45
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.46
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.03
own return game
Return Defense
+0.05
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#133
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#129
market 4 higher
Recruiting Rank
#76
recruiting 57 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where UL Monroe ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense1th
Opp-adjusted defense36th
Offensive EPA/play3th
Defensive EPA/play34th
Offensive success rate10th
Explosiveness10th
Defensive havoc13th
Points per drive4th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Old Dominion2019OA -0.203 / -0.027similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, TD drive rate3752South Alabama2017OA -0.205 / -0.056similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, offensive success rate3723Old Dominion2017OA -0.153 / -0.078similar: turnover rate, TD drive rate, offensive success rate3704San José State2018OA -0.139 / -0.048similar: defensive EPA, offensive success rate, defensive success rate3585Bowling Green2019OA -0.182 / -0.074similar: turnover rate, offensive EPA, passing offense358
2023 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Army | 17-13 | W | +9.5 | W | 47 | U |
| 2 | vs Lamar | 24-14 | W | -28.0 | L | 54.5 | U |
| 3 | @ Texas A&M | 3-47 | L | +36.5 | L | 53.5 | U |
| 5 | vs App State | 40-41 | L | +13.5 | W | 50.75 | O |
| 6 | vs South Alabama | 7-55 | L | +10.5 | L | 50.75 | O |
| 7 | @ Texas State | 20-21 | L | +16.5 | W | 63.5 | U |
| 8 | @ Georgia Southern | 28-38 | L | +17.0 | W | 59.5 | O |
| 9 | vs Arkansas State | 24-34 | L | -2.5 | L | 56.5 | O |
| 10 | @ Southern Miss | 7-24 | L | +2.5 | L | 55.25 | U |
| 11 | vs Troy | 14-45 | L | +21.5 | L | 45.5 | O |
| 12 | @ Ole Miss | 3-35 | L | +37.5 | W | 62 | U |
| 13 | @ Louisiana | 21-52 | L | +12.5 | L | 52.5 | O |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
2-10
16.7%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS0-2
Underdog ATS5-5
Last 5 ATS
LLLWL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.123 | 6th | +0.062 | 26th |
| Red Zone | -0.361 | 1th | -0.011 | 52th |
| Third Down | +0.114 | 33th | +0.443 | 8th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.146 | 4th | +0.040 | 36th |
| First Half | -0.186 | 1th | +0.066 | 28th |
| Second Half | -0.055 | 30th | +0.058 | 30th |
| Early Downs | -0.067 | 35th | -0.049 | 54th |
| Passing Downs | -0.234 | 3th | +0.194 | 10th |
| Standard Downs | -0.053 | 30th | -0.006 | 44th |
| Goal to Go | -0.360 | 3th | +0.032 | 45th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 45.4%Rush 54.6%
Havoc/Game
12.3
Havoc Rate
16.1%
TO Margin
+0.1
Explosive/G
11.1
Yards/Game
320.9
Pts/Drive
1.29
3rd Down%
32.4%
3&Out%
30.2%
Team Statistics
2023 season totals across 12 games — UL Monroe vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | UL Monroe | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 208 | 419 |
| Points / Game | 17.3 | 34.9 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 190 | 298 |
| Rushing | 86 | 121 |
| Passing | 87 | 153 |
| Penalty | 17 | 24 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 415 | 490 |
| Yards | 1,753 | 2,051 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.2 | 4.2 |
| Yards / Game | 146.1 | 170.9 |
| Touchdowns | 7 | 21 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 345 | 397 |
| Completions | 177 | 257 |
| Completion % | 51.3% | 64.7% |
| Yards | 2,098 | 3,299 |
| Yards / Attempt | 6.1 | 8.3 |
| Touchdowns | 15 | 28 |
| Interceptions | 13 | 11 |
| Passer Rating | 109.20 | 152.27 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 760 | 887 |
| Yards | 3,851 | 5,350 |
| Yards / Play | 5.1 | 6.0 |
| Yards / Game | 320.9 | 445.8 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 8 | 18 |
| Yards | 75 | 106 |
| Average | 9.4 | 5.9 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 29 | 17 |
| Yards | 493 | 319 |
| Average | 17.0 | 18.8 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 66 | 42 |
| Yards | 2,693 | 1,769 |
| Average | 40.8 | 42.1 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 11 | 13 |
| Yards | 154 | 208 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 3 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 14 | 20 |
| Lost | 5 | 8 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 71 | 62 |
| Yards | 643 | 525 |
| Yards / Game | 53.6 | 43.8 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 27:13 | 32:43 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 173 | 175 |
| Conversions | 56 | 89 |
| Conversion % | 32.4% | 50.9% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 26 | 14 |
| Conversions | 9 | 8 |
| Conversion % | 34.6% | 57.1% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 37 | 55 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 23 | 47 |
| Score % | 62.2% | 85.5% |
| Touchdowns | 15 | 34 |
| TD % | 40.5% | 61.8% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 14 | 25 |
| Made | 11 | 19 |
| Pct | 78.6% | 76.0% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 22 | 50 |
| Made | 21 | 50 |
| Pct | 95.5% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 3 | 2 |
| Made | 2 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.