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BGSU
Bowling Green
FalconsRun-HeavyMid-American Conference0-5#126 (-12.63)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
2· FOverall
Offense
2· FRating
2· FPer play
2· FConsistency
18· DBig plays
Defense
3· FRating
3· FPer play
5· FConsistency
Situational
0· FRed-zone O
5· FRed-zone D
2· F3rd down O
2· F3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.049
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.037
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.299
Defensive EPA/play
+0.216
lower = better
Off Success Rate
40.1%
Def Success Rate
50.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
30.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.515
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.047
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
0.70
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-1.91
expected pts/game
Kicking
-1.42
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.46
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.37
own return game
Return Defense
-1.32
vs opponent returns
Peer Context
Where Bowling Green ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense6th
Opp-adjusted defense14th
Offensive EPA/play2th
Defensive EPA/play3th
Offensive success rate6th
Explosiveness18th
Defensive havoc21th
Points per drive2th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Southern Miss2024OA -0.070 / -0.059similar: passing offense, run defense, offensive EPA4452Rutgers2019OA -0.170 / -0.065similar: passing offense, TD drive rate, offensive EPA4063Colorado2022OA -0.222 / -0.093similar: defensive EPA, run defense, offensive EPA3664Arkansas2019OA -0.077 / -0.071similar: havoc rate, TD drive rate, defensive success rate3615Utah State2020OA -0.039 / -0.053similar: run defense, defensive EPA, passing offense356
2020 Schedule & Results
5 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | @ Toledo | 3-38 | L | +20.5 | L | 56 | O |
| 11 | vs Kent State | 24-62 | L | +30.5 | W | - | - |
| 12 | vs Buffalo | 17-42 | L | - | - | - | - |
| 13 | @ Ohio | 10-52 | L | +24.0 | L | 54 | O |
| 14 | @ Akron | 3-31 | L | +2.8 | L | 57 | U |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
1-4
20.0%
O/U Record
2-2
50.0%
Straight Up
0-5
0.0%
Home ATS1-1
Away ATS0-3
Favorite ATS0-0
Underdog ATS1-4
Last 5 ATS
LLWLL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.212 | 2th | +0.143 | 9th |
| Red Zone | -0.888 | 0th | +0.267 | 5th |
| Third Down | -0.399 | 2th | +0.526 | 2th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.293 | 2th | +0.203 | 3th |
| First Half | -0.242 | 4th | +0.212 | 4th |
| Second Half | -0.186 | 6th | +0.058 | 41th |
| Early Downs | +0.037 | 66th | +0.023 | 44th |
| Passing Downs | -0.499 | 0th | +0.285 | 3th |
| Standard Downs | -0.041 | 33th | +0.076 | 20th |
| Goal to Go | -0.615 | 5th | +0.047 | 48th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 39.8%Rush 60.2%
Havoc/Game
11.0
Havoc Rate
15.0%
TO Margin
-2.0
Explosive/G
7.8
Yards/Game
326.4
Pts/Drive
0.70
3rd Down%
26.2%
3&Out%
24.3%
Team Statistics
2020 season totals across 5 games — Bowling Green vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Bowling Green | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 57 | 225 |
| Points / Game | 11.4 | 45.0 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 78 | 119 |
| Rushing | 43 | 74 |
| Passing | 28 | 37 |
| Penalty | 7 | 8 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 189 | 245 |
| Yards | 920 | 1,551 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.9 | 6.3 |
| Yards / Game | 184.0 | 310.2 |
| Touchdowns | 5 | 16 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 125 | 111 |
| Completions | 54 | 72 |
| Completion % | 43.2% | 64.9% |
| Yards | 712 | 828 |
| Yards / Attempt | 5.7 | 7.5 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 12 |
| Interceptions | 7 | 0 |
| Passer Rating | 82.49 | 163.20 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 314 | 356 |
| Yards | 1,632 | 2,379 |
| Yards / Play | 5.2 | 6.7 |
| Yards / Game | 326.4 | 475.8 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 6 | 9 |
| Yards | 32 | 48 |
| Average | 5.3 | 5.3 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 20 | 7 |
| Yards | 506 | 202 |
| Average | 25.3 | 28.9 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 24 | 17 |
| Yards | 821 | 597 |
| Average | 34.2 | 35.1 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 0 | 7 |
| Yards | 0 | 127 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 6 | 10 |
| Lost | 4 | 1 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 30 | 33 |
| Yards | 216 | 228 |
| Yards / Game | 43.2 | 45.6 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 26:24 | 33:36 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 65 | 70 |
| Conversions | 17 | 36 |
| Conversion % | 26.2% | 51.4% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 14 | 9 |
| Conversions | 3 | 5 |
| Conversion % | 21.4% | 55.6% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 15 | 25 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 9 | 24 |
| Score % | 60.0% | 96.0% |
| Touchdowns | 5 | 19 |
| TD % | 33.3% | 76.0% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 7 | 7 |
| Made | 5 | 5 |
| Pct | 71.4% | 71.4% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 6 | 29 |
| Made | 6 | 28 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 96.6% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 0 | 1 |
| Made | 0 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.