Fourth Down Data
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BGSU

Bowling Green

FalconsRun-Heavy
Mid-American Conference0-5#126 (-12.63)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

2· FOverall
Offense
2· FRating
2· FPer play
2· FConsistency
18· DBig plays
Defense
3· FRating
3· FPer play
5· FConsistency
Situational
0· FRed-zone O
5· FRed-zone D
2· F3rd down O
2· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.049
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.037
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.299
Defensive EPA/play
+0.216
lower = better
Off Success Rate
40.1%
Def Success Rate
50.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
30.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.515
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.047
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
0.70

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.91
expected pts/game
Kicking
-1.42
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.46
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.37
own return game
Return Defense
-1.32
vs opponent returns

Peer Context

Where Bowling Green ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
6th
Opp-adjusted defense
14th
Offensive EPA/play
2th
Defensive EPA/play
3th
Offensive success rate
6th
Explosiveness
18th
Defensive havoc
21th
Points per drive
2th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Southern Miss2024OA -0.070 / -0.059similar: passing offense, run defense, offensive EPA4452Rutgers2019OA -0.170 / -0.065similar: passing offense, TD drive rate, offensive EPA4063Colorado2022OA -0.222 / -0.093similar: defensive EPA, run defense, offensive EPA3664Arkansas2019OA -0.077 / -0.071similar: havoc rate, TD drive rate, defensive success rate3615Utah State2020OA -0.039 / -0.053similar: run defense, defensive EPA, passing offense356

2020 Schedule & Results

5 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
10@ Toledo3-38L+20.5L56O
11vs Kent State24-62L+30.5W--
12vs Buffalo17-42L----
13@ Ohio10-52L+24.0L54O
14@ Akron3-31L+2.8L57U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
1-4
20.0%
O/U Record
2-2
50.0%
Straight Up
0-5
0.0%
Home ATS1-1
Away ATS0-3
Favorite ATS0-0
Underdog ATS1-4
Last 5 ATS
LLWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off0thRush Off33thRed Zone Off0th3rd Down Off2thPass Def3thRush Def20thRed Zone Def5th3rd Down Def2th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.2122th+0.1439th
Red Zone-0.8880th+0.2675th
Third Down-0.3992th+0.5262th
No Garbage Time-0.2932th+0.2033th
First Half-0.2424th+0.2124th
Second Half-0.1866th+0.05841th
Early Downs+0.03766th+0.02344th
Passing Downs-0.4990th+0.2853th
Standard Downs-0.04133th+0.07620th
Goal to Go-0.6155th+0.04748th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 39.8%Rush 60.2%
Havoc/Game
11.0
Havoc Rate
15.0%
TO Margin
-2.0
Explosive/G
7.8
Yards/Game
326.4
Pts/Drive
0.70
3rd Down%
26.2%
3&Out%
24.3%

Team Statistics

2020 season totals across 5 games — Bowling Green vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatBowling GreenOpponents
Scoring
Points57225
Points / Game11.445.0
First Downs
Total78119
Rushing4374
Passing2837
Penalty78
Rushing
Attempts189245
Yards9201,551
Yards / Carry4.96.3
Yards / Game184.0310.2
Touchdowns516
Passing
Attempts125111
Completions5472
Completion %43.2%64.9%
Yards712828
Yards / Attempt5.77.5
Touchdowns112
Interceptions70
Passer Rating82.49163.20
Total Offense
Plays314356
Yards1,6322,379
Yards / Play5.26.7
Yards / Game326.4475.8
Punt Returns
Returns69
Yards3248
Average5.35.3
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns207
Yards506202
Average25.328.9
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts2417
Yards821597
Average34.235.1
Interception Returns
Returns07
Yards0127
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles610
Lost41
Penalties
Penalties3033
Yards216228
Yards / Game43.245.6
Time of Possession
Per Game26:2433:36
Third Downs
Attempts6570
Conversions1736
Conversion %26.2%51.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts149
Conversions35
Conversion %21.4%55.6%
Red Zone
Trips1525
Scores (TD + FG)924
Score %60.0%96.0%
Touchdowns519
TD %33.3%76.0%
Field Goals
Attempts77
Made55
Pct71.4%71.4%
PAT Kicking
Attempts629
Made628
Pct100.0%96.6%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts01
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →