Fourth Down Data
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RICE

Rice

OwlsBalanced
American Conference3-9#100 (-8.52)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

26· DOverall
Offense
13· FRating
12· FPer play
4· FConsistency
5· FBig plays
Defense
40· CRating
31· DPer play
53· CConsistency
Situational
27· DRed-zone O
7· FRed-zone D
34· D3rd down O
15· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.096
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.061
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.133
Defensive EPA/play
+0.047
lower = better
Off Success Rate
40.1%
Def Success Rate
45.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
20.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.180
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.097
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.51

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.50
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.29
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.27
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.09
own return game
Return Defense
+0.02
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#100
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 25 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Rice ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
13th
Opp-adjusted defense
26th
Offensive EPA/play
12th
Defensive EPA/play
31th
Offensive success rate
4th
Explosiveness
5th
Defensive havoc
30th
Points per drive
10th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Texas State2017OA -0.190 / -0.057similar: offensive EPA, run defense, TD drive rate4182Stanford2025OA -0.085 / +0.028similar: defensive success rate, rushing offense, offensive EPA3753Akron2024OA -0.044 / -0.031similar: rushing offense, offensive EPA, pass defense3744UConn2023OA -0.119 / -0.056similar: havoc rate, TD drive rate, defensive EPA3705Ball State2025OA -0.172 / -0.060similar: offensive success rate, rushing offense, offensive EPA366

2019 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Army7-14L+23.5W46.5U
2vs Wake Forest21-41L+20.0P59.5O
3vs Texas13-48L+32.0L57.5O
4vs Baylor13-21L+27.0W57.5U
5vs Louisiana Tech20-23L+9.0W48.5U
6@ UAB20-35L+10.0L43.5O
8@ UTSA27-31L-5.0L43O
9vs Southern Miss6-20L+10.0L51.5U
10vs Marshall7-20L+12.0L48.5U
12@ Middle Tennessee31-28W+13.5W45.5O
13vs North Texas20-14W+6.5W55U
14@ UTEP30-16W-7.0W43O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-5-1
54.5%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
3-9
25.0%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS1-1
Underdog ATS5-4
Last 5 ATS
LLWWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off31thRush Off12thRed Zone Off27th3rd Down Off34thPass Def46thRush Def22thRed Zone Def8th3rd Down Def15th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.10415th+0.04331th
Red Zone-0.14127th+0.1938th
Third Down-0.03534th+0.23815th
No Garbage Time-0.13612th+0.04731th
First Half-0.04531th+0.10817th
Second Half-0.16010th-0.02560th
Early Downs-0.13210th+0.03334th
Passing Downs-0.06931th+0.00346th
Standard Downs-0.12512th+0.06522th
Goal to Go-0.3899th+0.10124th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 42.5%Rush 57.5%
Havoc/Game
11.3
Havoc Rate
16.9%
TO Margin
-0.4
Explosive/G
11.8
Yards/Game
294.2
Pts/Drive
1.51
3rd Down%
38.2%
3&Out%
25.2%

Team Statistics

2019 season totals across 12 games — Rice vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatRiceOpponents
Scoring
Points215311
Points / Game17.925.9
First Downs
Total204224
Rushing7984
Passing98130
Penalty2710
Rushing
Attempts433416
Yards1,5381,660
Yards / Carry3.64.0
Yards / Game128.2138.3
Touchdowns1419
Passing
Attempts320348
Completions180224
Completion %56.3%64.4%
Yards1,9922,903
Yards / Attempt6.28.3
Touchdowns1318
Interceptions46
Passer Rating119.45148.06
Total Offense
Plays753764
Yards3,5304,563
Yards / Play4.76.0
Yards / Game294.2380.3
Punt Returns
Returns1518
Yards13867
Average9.23.7
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2623
Yards530492
Average20.421.4
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts6658
Yards2,8222,342
Average42.840.4
Interception Returns
Returns64
Yards734
Touchdowns01
Fumbles
Fumbles208
Lost125
Penalties
Penalties4473
Yards330754
Yards / Game27.562.8
Time of Possession
Per Game31:2828:32
Third Downs
Attempts173165
Conversions6675
Conversion %38.2%45.5%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1815
Conversions89
Conversion %44.4%60.0%
Red Zone
Trips3634
Scores (TD + FG)2829
Score %77.8%85.3%
Touchdowns2022
TD %55.6%64.7%
Field Goals
Attempts1515
Made1011
Pct66.7%73.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2737
Made2336
Pct85.2%97.3%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts02
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →