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ULM

UL Monroe

WarhawksRun-Heavy
Sun Belt Conference4-8#125 (-10.62)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

7· FOverall
Offense
4· FRating
15· DPer play
6· FConsistency
8· FBig plays
Defense
24· DRating
42· CPer play
28· DConsistency
Situational
68· CRed-zone O
30· DRed-zone D
45· C3rd down O
5· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.153
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.028
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.123
Defensive EPA/play
+0.006
lower = better
Off Success Rate
41.5%
Def Success Rate
48.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
20.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.129
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.028
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.46

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-2.54
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.41
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.73
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-1.41
own return game
Return Defense
+0.01
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#125
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#126
model 1 higher
Recruiting Rank
#72
recruiting 53 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where UL Monroe ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
5th
Opp-adjusted defense
34th
Offensive EPA/play
15th
Defensive EPA/play
42th
Offensive success rate
11th
Explosiveness
8th
Defensive havoc
20th
Points per drive
11th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Southern Miss2023OA -0.029 / -0.066similar: offensive success rate, defensive success rate, offensive EPA3622San José State2018OA -0.139 / -0.048similar: TD drive rate, defensive success rate, offensive success rate3533Rutgers2020OA -0.045 / -0.014similar: offensive EPA, defensive EPA, offensive success rate3444Old Dominion2017OA -0.153 / -0.078similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, defensive EPA3435UConn2023OA -0.119 / -0.056similar: offensive success rate, turnover rate, offensive EPA342

2021 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Kentucky10-45L+31.0L54.5O
3vs Jackson State12-7W-5.5L53U
4vs Troy29-16W+23.5W49.5U
5@ Coastal Carolina6-59L+34.5L56.5O
6vs Georgia State21-55L+16.0L51O
7vs Liberty31-28W+32.5W56.5O
8vs South Alabama41-31W+13.5W51O
9@ App State28-59L+27.5L57.5O
10@ Texas State19-27L+3.5L59.5U
11vs Arkansas State24-27L-3.0L66.5U
12@ LSU14-27L+29.0W57.5U
13@ Louisiana16-21L+21.5W54.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS0-2
Underdog ATS5-5
Last 5 ATS
LLLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off55thRush Off7thRed Zone Off68th3rd Down Off45thPass Def61thRush Def29thRed Zone Def30th3rd Down Def5th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.08519th+0.01740th
Red Zone+0.06468th+0.04630th
Third Down+0.06045th+0.3815th
No Garbage Time-0.12714th-0.00244th
First Half-0.1907th+0.05527th
Second Half+0.01555th-0.03056th
Early Downs-0.12514th+0.03628th
Passing Downs+0.01855th-0.03361th
Standard Downs-0.1567th+0.04029th
Goal to Go-0.4344th+0.03241th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 41.5%Rush 58.5%
Havoc/Game
11.3
Havoc Rate
15.2%
TO Margin
+0.2
Explosive/G
12.5
Yards/Game
324.5
Pts/Drive
1.46
3rd Down%
34.4%
3&Out%
28.4%

Team Statistics

2021 season totals across 12 games — UL Monroe vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatUL MonroeOpponents
Scoring
Points251402
Points / Game20.933.5
First Downs
Total223267
Rushing90105
Passing103151
Penalty3011
Rushing
Attempts500439
Yards1,5661,949
Yards / Carry3.14.4
Yards / Game130.5162.4
Touchdowns1321
Passing
Attempts354416
Completions200280
Completion %56.5%67.3%
Yards2,3283,470
Yards / Attempt6.68.3
Touchdowns1530
Interceptions911
Passer Rating120.64155.88
Total Offense
Plays854855
Yards3,8945,419
Yards / Play4.66.3
Yards / Game324.5451.6
Punt Returns
Returns619
Yards20158
Average3.38.3
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns1421
Yards254479
Average18.122.8
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts7046
Yards2,8451,910
Average40.641.5
Interception Returns
Returns119
Yards17770
Touchdowns11
Fumbles
Fumbles1615
Lost66
Penalties
Penalties4570
Yards391694
Yards / Game32.657.8
Time of Possession
Per Game28:4031:11
Third Downs
Attempts189169
Conversions6573
Conversion %34.4%43.2%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2731
Conversions1412
Conversion %51.9%38.7%
Red Zone
Trips2945
Scores (TD + FG)2538
Score %86.2%84.4%
Touchdowns1832
TD %62.1%71.1%
Field Goals
Attempts2114
Made1611
Pct76.2%78.6%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2852
Made2751
Pct96.4%98.1%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts11
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →