Fourth Down Data
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USM

Southern Miss

Golden EaglesBalanced
Sun Belt Conference3-9#115 (-5.82)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

15· DOverall
Offense
31· DRating
23· DPer play
9· FConsistency
29· DBig plays
Defense
16· DRating
27· DPer play
42· CConsistency
Situational
16· DRed-zone O
40· CRed-zone D
52· C3rd down O
65· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.029
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.066
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.061
Defensive EPA/play
+0.057
lower = better
Off Success Rate
41.7%
Def Success Rate
47.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.118
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.074
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.84

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.84
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.95
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.18
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.14
own return game
Return Defense
-0.21
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#115
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#115
model & market agree
Recruiting Rank
#76
recruiting 39 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Southern Miss ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
33th
Opp-adjusted defense
21th
Offensive EPA/play
24th
Defensive EPA/play
27th
Offensive success rate
10th
Explosiveness
29th
Defensive havoc
46th
Points per drive
27th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1UL Monroe2021OA -0.153 / -0.028similar: offensive success rate, defensive success rate, offensive EPA3642UConn2023OA -0.119 / -0.056similar: defensive EPA, offensive EPA, takeaway rate3613Stanford2026OA -0.036 / -0.136similar: defensive success rate, passing offense, TD drive rate3434Virginia Tech2021OA -0.008 / +0.025similar: turnover rate, TD drive rate, offensive EPA3425Coastal Carolina2024OA -0.004 / -0.025similar: defensive EPA, defensive success rate, pass defense339

2023 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Alcorn State40-14W-24.0W47.5O
2@ Florida State13-66L+31.0L53.5O
3vs Tulane3-21L+12.8L49.5U
4@ Arkansas State37-44L-6.0L48.5O
5vs Texas State36-50L+5.5L61O
6vs Old Dominion13-17L-1.5L57.5U
8@ South Alabama3-55L----
9@ App State38-48L+17.0W55O
10vs UL Monroe24-7W+10.0W52.5O
11@ Louisiana34-31W----
12@ Mississippi State20-41L+13.5L46.5O
13vs Troy17-35L+16.5L47.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-8
33.3%
O/U Record
9-3
75.0%
Straight Up
3-9
25.0%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS2-2
Underdog ATS2-6
Last 5 ATS
WWWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off83thRush Off3thRed Zone Off16th3rd Down Off53thPass Def27thRush Def29thRed Zone Def41th3rd Down Def65th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.03732th+0.07021th
Red Zone-0.18416th+0.03441th
Third Down+0.21053th+0.11365th
No Garbage Time-0.05525th+0.04930th
First Half-0.05427th-0.00457th
Second Half-0.02141th+0.1653th
Early Downs-0.1894th+0.0878th
Passing Downs+0.19583th+0.11627th
Standard Downs-0.1823th+0.04629th
Goal to Go-0.3394th-0.09264th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 42.8%Rush 57.2%
Havoc/Game
11.7
Havoc Rate
17.9%
TO Margin
+0.2
Explosive/G
13.2
Yards/Game
353.4
Pts/Drive
1.84
3rd Down%
38.0%
3&Out%
22.5%

Team Statistics

2023 season totals across 12 games — Southern Miss vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatSouthern MissOpponents
Scoring
Points278429
Points / Game23.235.8
First Downs
Total242237
Rushing112101
Passing100123
Penalty3013
Rushing
Attempts485424
Yards1,9532,145
Yards / Carry4.05.1
Yards / Game162.8178.8
Touchdowns1628
Passing
Attempts363325
Completions188189
Completion %51.8%58.2%
Yards2,2882,904
Yards / Attempt6.38.9
Touchdowns1523
Interceptions89
Passer Rating113.96151.03
Total Offense
Plays848749
Yards4,2415,049
Yards / Play5.06.7
Yards / Game353.4420.8
Punt Returns
Returns1613
Yards167111
Average10.48.5
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns3935
Yards879858
Average22.524.5
Touchdowns12
Punting
Punts6150
Yards2,4222,061
Average39.741.2
Interception Returns
Returns98
Yards4153
Touchdowns02
Fumbles
Fumbles1618
Lost78
Penalties
Penalties7566
Yards578635
Yards / Game48.252.9
Time of Possession
Per Game33:1226:48
Third Downs
Attempts187145
Conversions7155
Conversion %38.0%37.9%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2618
Conversions119
Conversion %42.3%50.0%
Red Zone
Trips4347
Scores (TD + FG)3641
Score %83.7%87.2%
Touchdowns2133
TD %48.8%70.2%
Field Goals
Attempts2415
Made1712
Pct70.8%80.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3053
Made2953
Pct96.7%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts23
Made02
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →