Fourth Down Data
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CLT

Charlotte

49ersBalanced
American Conference2-4#92 (-3.18)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

29· DOverall
Offense
56· CRating
67· CPer play
37· DConsistency
71· BBig plays
Defense
19· DRating
23· DPer play
9· FConsistency
Situational
81· BRed-zone O
50· CRed-zone D
67· C3rd down O
9· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.009
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.027
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.061
Defensive EPA/play
+0.091
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.9%
Def Success Rate
51.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
26.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.030
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.004
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.27

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.06
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.19
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.28
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.42
own return game
Return Defense
-0.57
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#92
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#63
market 29 higher
Recruiting Rank
—
no recruiting profile

Peer Context

Where Charlotte ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
61th
Opp-adjusted defense
20th
Offensive EPA/play
67th
Defensive EPA/play
23th
Offensive success rate
39th
Explosiveness
72th
Defensive havoc
5th
Points per drive
59th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Virginia Tech2018OA +0.023 / -0.095similar: rushing offense, defensive EPA, offensive success rate3752Temple2025OA +0.068 / -0.135similar: run defense, pass defense, defensive success rate3453Eastern Michigan2022OA +0.042 / -0.141similar: defensive success rate, defensive EPA, offensive EPA3434Arkansas State2019OA +0.036 / -0.048similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, defensive EPA3405Louisiana2017OA -0.058 / -0.169similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, defensive success rate340

2020 Schedule & Results

6 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
2@ App State20-35L+17.0W59.5U
5@ Florida Atlantic17-21L+6.5W60.5U
6@ North Texas49-21W-3.0W69O
8vs UTEP38-28W-14.5L48.5O
9@ Duke19-53L+9.5L56O
14vs Western Kentucky19-37L-2.0L46O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
3-3
50.0%
O/U Record
4-2
66.7%
Straight Up
2-4
33.3%
Home ATS0-2
Away ATS3-1
Favorite ATS1-2
Underdog ATS2-1
Last 5 ATS
WWLLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off60thRush Off80thRed Zone Off82th3rd Down Off67thPass Def25thRush Def28thRed Zone Def50th3rd Down Def9th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.08273th+0.08625th
Red Zone+0.18182th-0.00650th
Third Down+0.18367th+0.3429th
No Garbage Time+0.06367th+0.09821th
First Half+0.08670th+0.04142th
Second Half+0.07971th+0.13718th
Early Downs+0.05071th+0.1275th
Passing Downs+0.08360th+0.14525th
Standard Downs+0.08180th+0.06128th
Goal to Go+0.14265th-0.01860th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 43.0%Rush 57.0%
Havoc/Game
8.3
Havoc Rate
12.5%
TO Margin
+0.3
Explosive/G
15.7
Yards/Game
377.7
Pts/Drive
2.27
3rd Down%
40.6%
3&Out%
17.2%

Team Statistics

2020 season totals across 6 games — Charlotte vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatCharlotteOpponents
Scoring
Points162195
Points / Game27.032.5
First Downs
Total119127
Rushing5158
Passing5957
Penalty912
Rushing
Attempts237219
Yards9291,284
Yards / Carry3.95.9
Yards / Game154.8214.0
Touchdowns1115
Passing
Attempts179165
Completions9895
Completion %54.7%57.6%
Yards1,3371,233
Yards / Attempt7.57.5
Touchdowns1010
Interceptions25
Passer Rating133.69134.29
Total Offense
Plays416384
Yards2,2662,517
Yards / Play5.46.6
Yards / Game377.7419.5
Punt Returns
Returns68
Yards3066
Average5.08.3
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns197
Yards394169
Average20.724.1
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts3018
Yards1,254797
Average41.844.3
Interception Returns
Returns52
Yards7844
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles97
Lost43
Penalties
Penalties4229
Yards370222
Yards / Game61.737.0
Time of Possession
Per Game34:1825:43
Third Downs
Attempts9669
Conversions3932
Conversion %40.6%46.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1210
Conversions72
Conversion %58.3%20.0%
Red Zone
Trips2129
Scores (TD + FG)1821
Score %85.7%72.4%
Touchdowns1519
TD %71.4%65.5%
Field Goals
Attempts78
Made44
Pct57.1%50.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts1826
Made1825
Pct100.0%96.2%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts40
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →