Fourth Down Data
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BALL

Ball State

CardinalsPass-Heavy
Mid-American Conference0-1#114 (-6.40)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

17· DOverall
Offense
22· DRating
11· FPer play
25· DConsistency
26· DBig plays
Defense
15· DRating
2· FPer play
1· FConsistency
Situational
17· DRed-zone D
4· F3rd down O
14· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.028
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.057
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.233
Defensive EPA/play
+0.378
lower = better
Off Success Rate
33.3%
Def Success Rate
65.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
19.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.611
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
0.50

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.84
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.50
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.01
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.03
own return game
Return Defense
+0.32
vs opponent returns

Peer Context

Where Ball State ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
25th
Opp-adjusted defense
12th
Offensive EPA/play
11th
Defensive EPA/play
2th
Offensive success rate
4th
Explosiveness
26th
Defensive havoc
28th
Points per drive
7th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1UConn2019OA -0.151 / -0.176similar: defensive success rate, offensive EPA, defensive EPA3182Arizona2020OA -0.042 / -0.021similar: TD drive rate, run defense, takeaway rate3113Kent State2026OA -0.042 / -0.069similar: defensive success rate, offensive success rate, pass defense3114Arkansas2019OA -0.077 / -0.071similar: turnover rate, offensive EPA, rushing offense3085Purdue2025OA -0.058 / -0.065similar: rushing offense, pass defense, defensive success rate305

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Ohio State3-56L+50.0L55.5O
2vs Stony Brook------
3@ Liberty------
4@ Kent State------
5vs Toledo------
6@ Northwestern------
7@ Bowling Green------
8vs Sacramento State------
10@ Massachusetts------
11vs Buffalo------
12@ Ohio------
13vs Central Michigan------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
0-1
0.0%
O/U Record
1-0
100.0%
Straight Up
0-1
0.0%
Home ATS0-0
Away ATS0-1
Favorite ATS0-0
Underdog ATS0-1
Last 5 ATS
L
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off7thRush Off12thRed Zone Off0th3rd Down Off4thPass Def54thRush Def1thRed Zone Def17th3rd Down Def14th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.3604th+0.3663th
Red Zone-0th+0.58517th
Third Down-0.9314th+0.51314th
No Garbage Time-0.2758th+0.4271th
First Half-0.23314th+0.3784th
Second Half-0.4953th+0.35112th
Early Downs-0.2549th+0.4311th
Passing Downs-0.4807th-0.09154th
Standard Downs-0.25512th+0.5421th
Goal to Go-0th+0.24759th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 61.7%Rush 38.3%
Havoc/Game
10.0
Havoc Rate
13.7%
TO Margin
0.0
Explosive/G
6.0
Yards/Game
165.0
Pts/Drive
0.50
3rd Down%
21.4%
3&Out%
0.0%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — Ball State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatBall StateOpponents
Scoring
Points356
Points / Game3.056.0
First Downs
Total1332
Rushing310
Passing822
Penalty20
Rushing
Attempts2335
Yards45237
Yards / Carry2.06.8
Yards / Game45.0237.0
Touchdowns03
Passing
Attempts3737
Completions2031
Completion %54.1%83.8%
Yards120434
Yards / Attempt3.211.7
Touchdowns05
Interceptions11
Passer Rating75.89221.50
Total Offense
Plays6072
Yards165671
Yards / Play2.89.3
Yards / Game165.0671.0
Punt Returns
Returns04
Yards010
Average—2.5
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns02
Yards026
Average—13.0
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts83
Yards350123
Average43.841.0
Interception Returns
Returns11
Yards02
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles00
Lost00
Penalties
Penalties39
Yards1581
Yards / Game15.081.0
Time of Possession
Per Game28:2231:38
Third Downs
Attempts1411
Conversions35
Conversion %21.4%45.5%
Fourth Downs
Attempts12
Conversions02
Conversion %0.0%100.0%
Red Zone
Trips05
Scores (TD + FG)05
Score %—100.0%
Touchdowns05
TD %—100.0%
Field Goals
Attempts10
Made10
Pct100.0%—
PAT Kicking
Attempts08
Made08
Pct—100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →