Fourth Down Data
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VT

Virginia Tech

HokiesRun-Heavy
Atlantic Coast Conference3-9#98 (-7.31)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

28· DOverall
Offense
34· DRating
31· DPer play
37· DConsistency
37· DBig plays
Defense
29· DRating
7· FPer play
21· DConsistency
Situational
49· CRed-zone O
23· DRed-zone D
22· D3rd down O
7· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.015
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.060
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.059
Defensive EPA/play
+0.118
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.3%
Def Success Rate
47.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.177
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.034
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.75

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.95
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.04
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.68
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.08
own return game
Return Defense
-0.15
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#98
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#93
market 5 higher
Recruiting Rank
#36
recruiting 62 spots higher
12 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Virginia Tech ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
46th
Opp-adjusted defense
28th
Offensive EPA/play
31th
Defensive EPA/play
7th
Offensive success rate
41th
Explosiveness
37th
Defensive havoc
13th
Points per drive
17th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1UTEP2019OA -0.113 / -0.192similar: offensive success rate, defensive EPA, pass defense3812Ohio2021OA -0.040 / -0.129similar: passing offense, takeaway rate, defensive EPA3713Kansas2019OA +0.049 / -0.077similar: takeaway rate, defensive EPA, rushing offense3694Georgia Tech2021OA +0.003 / -0.081similar: havoc rate, defensive success rate, offensive success rate3665Arkansas2019OA -0.077 / -0.071similar: rushing offense, havoc rate, pass defense365

2025 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ South Carolina11-24L+7.0L51.5U
2vs Vanderbilt20-44L-2.0L45O
3vs Old Dominion26-45L-5.5L51O
4vs Wofford38-6W-35.5L48.5U
5@ NC State23-21W+10.0W57.5U
6vs Wake Forest23-30L-6.0L51.5O
7@ Georgia Tech20-35L+14.5L56.5U
9vs California42-34W----
10vs Louisville16-28L+5.5L43.5O
12@ Florida State14-34L+14.0L55U
13vs Miami17-34L+18.0W48.5O
14@ Virginia7-27L+8.0L52.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
2-10
16.7%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
3-9
25.0%
Home ATS1-6
Away ATS1-4
Favorite ATS0-5
Underdog ATS2-5
Last 5 ATS
LLLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off17thRush Off68thRed Zone Off50th3rd Down Off22thPass Def6thRush Def16thRed Zone Def23th3rd Down Def7th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.02540th+0.1069th
Red Zone-0.01350th+0.13623th
Third Down-0.07922th+0.3357th
No Garbage Time-0.07127th+0.1188th
First Half-0.06227th+0.08015th
Second Half+0.01660th+0.1327th
Early Downs+0.03268th+0.02129th
Passing Downs-0.16217th+0.1766th
Standard Downs+0.04968th+0.07216th
Goal to Go+0.43696th+0.21819th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 41.8%Rush 58.2%
Havoc/Game
9.9
Havoc Rate
14.8%
TO Margin
-0.7
Explosive/G
12.8
Yards/Game
348.8
Pts/Drive
1.75
3rd Down%
39.4%
3&Out%
22.1%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 12 games — Virginia Tech vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatVirginia TechOpponents
Scoring
Points257362
Points / Game21.430.2
First Downs
Total227252
Rushing121100
Passing85127
Penalty2125
Rushing
Attempts446427
Yards2,1891,839
Yards / Carry4.94.3
Yards / Game182.4153.3
Touchdowns1325
Passing
Attempts320348
Completions180234
Completion %56.3%67.2%
Yards1,9962,698
Yards / Attempt6.27.8
Touchdowns1718
Interceptions94
Passer Rating120.55147.14
Total Offense
Plays766775
Yards4,1854,537
Yards / Play5.55.9
Yards / Game348.8378.1
Punt Returns
Returns1814
Yards139266
Average7.719.0
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns277
Yards506185
Average18.726.4
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts4843
Yards2,1381,858
Average44.543.2
Interception Returns
Returns49
Yards2933
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles108
Lost52
Penalties
Penalties8683
Yards771701
Yards / Game64.358.4
Time of Possession
Per Game29:1330:47
Third Downs
Attempts165150
Conversions6568
Conversion %39.4%45.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2315
Conversions1110
Conversion %47.8%66.7%
Red Zone
Trips3552
Scores (TD + FG)3148
Score %88.6%92.3%
Touchdowns2334
TD %65.7%65.4%
Field Goals
Attempts2021
Made1518
Pct75.0%85.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2643
Made2642
Pct100.0%97.7%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts41
Made11
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →